The War in Ukraine: The Beginning of a World Reconstruction

The War in Ukraine: The Beginning of a World Reconstruction

(February 26, 2022)

On February 24, destined to be the most extraordinary day of the century, Russia announced its invasion of Ukraine, which will be the most far-reaching geopolitical war of the century. Whether before the war begins, or before the war officially begins, US President Biden and the White House spokesman have repeatedly stressed that the United States will not send troops into Ukraine to fight with the Russian army, and the United Kingdom and NATO also claim that they will not send troops into Ukraine to fight, from these can be inferred that from the current situation, the Ukrainian war will be only a local war, and will not evolve into a large-scale and uncontrollable world war in the short term. For Ukraine, the outcome of this war is related to the fate and direction of the country, and the understanding of the whole country is very clear, and many people said in interviews that they will take up arms to fight for their children and grandchildren, which also fully demonstrates the ukrainian people's profound understanding of the significance of this war. The war has been going on for three days now, the Ukrainian army has shown a tenacious will to fight, the people are also the same enemy for the war, the morale of the military and the people is high, and young people have lined up at the recruitment station to volunteer to fight for the country.

Although the Ukrainian war is a local war in terms of scope, it is definitely the largest geopolitical event in the world after World War II in terms of influence, and its impact on the world's political economy will be very far-reaching, and the time span of the impact may reach decades, generations or even generations.

The far-reaching effects of the war in Ukraine were mainly threefold.

First, further weaken the Yalta system. Although the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia completely inherited the former Soviet Union's seat in the United Nations and major world organizations, so that the international order formed by the Yalta system continues to this day, and the regional power structure has regained relative stability and balance. It should be said that since the establishment of the Yalta system, the world pattern has been relatively stable, economic development has been remarkable, and the improvement of the living standards of the people of the world has also been the fastest in these decades. Although the international order formed by the Yalta system is not perfect, it has generally maintained world peace and stability.

Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the "core layer" in leading and maintaining the international order, and in a certain sense, it should assume the exemplary role of safeguarding the UN Charter, jointly maintain the relative balance of geopolitical forces in the world, resolve geopolitical conflicts, and maximize the interests of others. Ukraine's secession from the former Soviet Union as a sovereign and independent state and a member of the United Nations is recognized by the world and recognized by Russia, and the two sides have established formal diplomatic relations with each other's embassies. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Ukraine is not a sovereign state, and it is completely illegal to invade Ukraine brazenly. There is a voice in China that compares Russia's invasion of Ukraine with the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which are wrong. First, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been authorized by the United Nations, and their legal basis remains within the framework of the Charter of the United Nations. The war in Ukraine does not have a UNITED Nations mandate, and even if Ukraine's sovereignty is denied and Ukraine's membership of the United Nations is suspended, it must pass a United Nations resolution, not just Russia. Second, the demands and purposes are completely different. The war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan are about maintaining sovereignty and counter-terrorism, and the United States and the United Nations military have not changed the sovereignty and territorial scope of Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and now launched a war to invade Ukraine in an all-round way, its demand is to split and annex Ukraine's territory, undermine Ukraine's territorial integrity, change Ukraine's territory, and reshape the geopolitical pattern of Eastern Europe, as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointed out: "This offensive war of Russia marks a profound change in European history after the Cold War." ”

Based on the above, whether this war wins or loses, or if it ends without results, the pattern of the international order formed after World War II will be reshaped, and the role of the United Nations in resolving disputes and regional conflicts will be seriously weakened, which may be the official beginning of the reconstruction of the world order.

Second, the Iron Curtain of the new Cold War was officially drawn. Some leaders noted at the Munich Security Forum before the war in Ukraine began that the Cold War's Iron Curtain could be pulled down again. If the war had not begun, these words might have been alarmist. After the war in Ukraine officially began, the Iron Curtain of the Cold War was officially pulled down, and there would be no middle ground. Although the War in Ukraine has only begun for three days, the world has chosen sides around the War in Ukraine, Turkey in Europe has tried to wait and see, bilateral bets, recently President Erdogan has publicly expressed opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO should increase its intervention, so far, European countries have all completed the side of the side. Among the great powers, India has remained silent, and US Secretary of State Blinken has repeatedly asked India to make its position clear. India has purchased a large number of Russian-made weapons, has close economic and political ties with Russia, and based on its own considerations, india's decision is very difficult, and India will eventually make a choice. There is no middle ground in the future world, the middle ground is the "abandoned child", and any country that becomes an isolated world "outcast" will be a self-destructive self-harm road, impossible to survive in a closely linked, interdependent economic system.

Here, I use the term "new Cold War", which is not only different from the Cold War during the United States and the Soviet Union, but also because the future Cold War is very different from the previous Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, so it is named "New Cold War". Compared with the old Cold War, the new Cold War has three characteristics: First, competition and cooperation coexist. There is both competition and cooperation between the two sides, which is determined by the characteristics of the market economy, but competition is the main, cooperation is the supplement, competition is extensive, and cooperation is partial. Second, values have become the yardstick for choosing sides. The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was a competition of social systems and economic models, and it was also the criterion for the old Cold War to choose sides. In the new Cold War era, values will become the yardstick for choosing sides. Third, the camp structure is flattened. During the old Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were the "group leaders" of the two camps, with a hierarchical structure. During the new Cold War period, the organizational structure of each camp was mainly a mode of consultation and cooperation, and the structure tended to be loose, and the internal organizational structure was flattened.

Third, the world economic structure will be reconstructed. The economy is the foundation, and politics is the continuation of the economy, which will be further strengthened in the future world. The war in Ukraine has led many countries to become acutely aware that economic dependence between countries on kidnapping political decisions cannot be allowed. Reconstructing economic interdependence between countries that can be trusted will be a major policy that countries will promote soon after the War in Ukraine, and the restructuring of industrial chains will accelerate. In the new Cold War era, in order to ensure economic stability, reliability and independence, reconstructing economic interdependence within the camp will be the mainstream. So in this sense, the new Cold War camp will be a combination of political, economic and security camps, deeply integrated and bundled.

Although the Ukrainian war is a local war, its impact and historical significance will be significant, and it will inevitably surpass any war after World War II.