Introduction: Without breaking the spell of selling 100,000 vehicles a month, the goal of 1.2 million is a fool's dream.
As everyone immersed in the Spring Festival holiday and the opening of the Winter Olympics, on the evening of February 3, BYD (HK:01211) could not wait to announce january 2022 sales. BYD's sales reached 95,200 units in the month, up 126.1% year-on-year and down 3.7% month-on-month from December last year.
Or thanks to the performance of BYD's sales "opening red", BYD's H-share Spring Festival holiday was the only trading day (February 4) rose sharply, up 7.05%. On February 7, after the opening of BYD A shares, it also showed a good trend, up 7.76%.
It is worth mentioning that the first monthly examination results handed over by BYD in 2022 not only enabled BYD's double stock to achieve a sharp rise in the trading day after the results were announced, but also received a number of bullish evaluations from securities institutions - Anxin Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, CITIC Securities, changjiang Securities gave it a "buy" rating, Guosen Securities and Huaxi Securities gave an "overweight" rating, and Huachuang Securities gave a "strong push" rating.
Of course, BYD can be optimistic about many institutions, in addition to the January sales to achieve the opening of the infrared, but also with its models continue to sell hot, performance continues to improve is not unrelated. But in the capital market, its stock price did not skyrocket as the institution predicted, but fluctuated.
According to statistics from the Korea Automotive Research Institute, last year's global pure electric vehicle market sales were 4.7177 million units, a year-on-year increase of 112%; the global electric vehicle sales crown is still Tesla, SAIC Group is close behind, Volkswagen Group surpassed BYD to rank third, BYD was squeezed out of the TOP 3.
1 "Golden Rooster Independence"
According to BYD's announcement, the company's new energy vehicle sales were 93,000 units, of which pure electric passenger car EV and plug-in hybrid PHEV sales exceeded 46,000 units, an increase of 220.72% and 760.58% respectively.
From the perspective of specific models, the SALES OF BYD Qin Family and Song Family in January exceeded 20,000 units, 26,500 units and 22,400 units, respectively, an increase of 0.3% and 2.3% respectively; the Sales of the Hanhe Dolphin Series exceeded 10,000 units in January, with 12,800 units and 10,600 units, respectively, an increase of -6.7% and 5.9% respectively.
In addition, the Tang family and the Yuan family, although slightly less performing, also sold 9,060 and 8,596 units in January, up 0.7% and 0.2% month-on-month, respectively, while the e-series sold 4,364 units, up 4.9% month-on-month. It is not difficult to see from the sales performance of various series models that the sales performance of the BYD Dynasty series is stable, while the sales of Dolphin, the first mass-produced model of the Ocean series and e-platform 3.0, have continued to climb, ranking in the 10,000-vehicle club for two consecutive months.
It is worth mentioning that the follow-up BYD will also successively list a number of models such as seagulls, seals, sea lions and destroyer 05, which will not only further strengthen BYD's product matrix, but also hope to ensure BYD's position in the Chinese new energy vehicle market, but whether these increments can make BYD return to the world's top 3 electric vehicles is still difficult to say.
Contrary to the high and high of new energy vehicles, BYD's traditional fuel vehicle sales are only 2254 units, down 89.86% year-on-year, and the sense of existence is getting weaker and weaker. The two-legged walk that was once envisaged is now the "golden rooster independence".
Of course, from another point of view, BYD PHEV is also extending the life of traditional fuel engines in a new form on a large scale.
2 BYD "gone"?
Or based on the hot sales of models on sale, and a high degree of confidence in blade batteries, DM-i hybrid, e-platform 3.0 and other technologies, there is news that BYD has set a sales target of 1.2 million vehicles in 2022.
However, it has recently been reported that BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu also revealed his New Year's goals: "In 2022, I personally judge that the penetration rate of the new energy industry is estimated to be more than 35%, and BYD's annual target for passenger cars is 1.5 million." This means that compared with last year, BYD's sales volume increased by more than 100%.
From the first month of 2022, BYD's growth rate reached 125.05%, exceeding the standard. Next, if BYD can sell cars according to this year-on-year growth rate every month, BYD is likely to catch up with Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors in front of it in 2022.
This also means that IFD wants to achieve the target of 1.2 million, the average monthly sales volume will reach 100,000 units, and the average monthly sales of 1.5 million vehicles will reach 125,000 units. It is worth mentioning that although BYD's monthly sales hit a record high last year, the 100,000-vehicle mark is like a spell, and it has not been broken. Auto K-line believes that, not surprisingly, BYD should be able to break the 100,000-vehicle mark in March this year.
Back in 2022, although BYD ushered in the "opening red", whether it is 1.2 million or 1.5 million vehicles, I am afraid it is still a bit drifty. From the macroeconomic level of 2022, there is greater pressure on the people's livelihood level.
On January 21, BYD officials said that due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline of new energy car purchase subsidies, BYD Automobile will adjust the official guidance price of Dynasty and marine-related new energy models, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan. The price adjustment took effect on February 1, and customers who signed up for the deposit before that were not affected. For BYD consumer groups with less than 200,000 yuan, price increases will be more sensitive, not to mention subsidies have also declined.
As we all know, before the Spring Festival is the peak season of automobile sales, sales are generally the high point of the year, and in the first half of the year after the spring, it is the traditional off-season of automobile sales, coupled with BYD's price increase in February, I am afraid that it will trigger consumer wait-and-see sentiment and overdraft part of the demand.
On the other hand, Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha Automobile and other new car-making forces have risen, and some of the EV models launched have been explored, directly PK with BYD's main models; and the "old rivals" Great Wall, GAC, Geely and other traditional car companies have begun to exert their strength in the new energy market, and not only EVs, but also BYD's so-called super hybrid, which is about to usher in the competition of stronger hybrid technologies such as Raytheon Power and a new generation of intelligent DHT.
In addition, Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen and other foreign brands of new energy products have entered a large number of markets, which is also no small pressure on BYD, after all, the plate of the new energy market is getting bigger, but there are more people who want to share a piece of the pie.
Against this backdrop, how BYD will achieve its ambitious goals is worrying. After all, self-confidence and optimism are one thing, facts and status quo are another. Of course, the author also expects BYD to create good results.
However, BYD can be recognized by many institutions, in addition to the automotive business, semiconductor, power battery and energy storage battery business, is also an important reason. However, from the high point of 333.33 yuan / share on October 26 last year to the close of 238.31 yuan / share on February 15, BYD's stock price fell by nearly 30%. Therefore, Wang Chuanfu's task is not only to achieve the sales target so simple, but also to be worthy of the research institutions and investors in his own announcements.