20220211 analysis of the trend of the broader market: although the adjustment exceeded expectations, the market sentiment has greatly improved

First, a brief analysis of the technical aspects of A shares

The morning meeting is expected to adjust today, but the degree of market adjustment is unexpected, as of the close, the number of rising stocks in the two cities is only more than 600, while the number of falling stocks is more than 4,000, the two cities have a good deal volume, the market perception is poor, but the decline is mainly driven by emotions, compared with before the holiday, the current market sentiment has been greatly improved.

The Shanghai Composite Index 3500 point is an important threshold, and it is reasonable for the index to fall back at 3500 points.

Social finance data preferences, early coal, real estate performance preferences, near the close, coal, real estate has declined. The insurance sector saw the biggest increase, with energy metals, coal and other sectors barely turning red.

Today's market is a normal correction.

Second, the interpretation of market current affairs

(1) The reason for the strong insurance sector is mainly due to the serious under-allocation of funds, and a slight marginal force can promote the rise;

(2) Traditional Chinese medicines and medical devices are stimulated by the news of collection and collection, resulting in a decline;

(3) Game stocks continue their previous downward trend;

(4) Wind power, photovoltaic, power grid equipment, optical optoelectronics, auto parts and other track stocks fell in the front;

(5) The track stock may rebound in the short term, but there is no participation value, at least half a year later to make observations;

(6) There is a voice circulating in the market, that is, "the preference of social finance data means an interest rate hike, and the evidence lies in the upward yield of treasury futures";

(7) There is a deep bias in the above logic: first, the upward yield of Treasury bond futures is the result of wide credit; secondly, the upward interest rates of China and the United States are different, and the upward interest rate of the United States is the expression of inflation expectations after a long period of wide credit, indicating that tightening is approaching, while the upward trend of Chinese interest rates is just beginning to loosen, and there is a clear difference between the two, and the market deliberately confuses the two, which means that market sentiment is still in a relatively extreme state.

3. Futures market

Commodity futures are strong at night, weaker in the morning, and diving in the afternoon. This round of commodity rise is mainly related to overseas, spot led the rise, we must pay attention to the fluctuation rhythm of commodity futures. The resonance point between the commodity market and the A-share market is not yet clear, and the macro bottom is not yet sufficient. January's macro data preference, it is speculated that February will be more unexpected, in time, the macro bottom will be fully confirmed.