"Ecology needs to be built together, and it is an ecology that serves the public."
Text | Peng Suping
Year after year, Vientiane is renewed.
In the past 2021, the Chinese auto market has undergone many changes.
In terms of scale, domestic automobile production and sales have ended the "three consecutive declines" and re-entered the growth channel;
Structurally, the outbreak of new energy vehicles may become an inflection point for this emerging species to be truly accepted by the public;
In the pattern, many new forces have poured into the automobile industry, and traditional cars have opened up their arms to them as never before, and have also put themselves on the express train of rapid change...
Before the Spring Festival, in the "Tribute to 2021 | In the article "Chinese Automobile, Tear Down the Wall in the Mind", the think tank Jun reviewed the changes in China's auto industry in 2021, and now we will combine industry dynamics and company layout to try to foresee new changes, new patterns and new trends in the automotive industry in 2022.
On the basis of last year's impressive achievements, can the automotive market continue to grow this year? At the last hurdle of leaving state subsidies, can new energy vehicles complete the jump and truly enter the market? Will supply chain issues such as rising raw material prices and chip shortages continue to affect the automotive market? What kind of competitive situation will the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain face?
Based on the above questions, China Auto 30 Think Tank officially launched the "Foresee 2022" series of interviews, inviting experts from the China Auto 30 Think Tank to predict the pattern and trend of China's automobiles in 2022, and the think tank experts in this dialogue are Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd.
In the wave of electrification and intelligent development of automobiles, Bosch, a large-scale parts supplier, has also embarked on a large-scale transformation. Last year, Bosch's electric bridges, silicon carbide (SiC) chips and other electrified components began mass production, and the hydrogen fuel cell business based on the longer-term direction has also made breakthrough progress - Bosch's hydrogen power module has been put on the car and entered the demonstration operation;
Last year, Bosch also established the "XC Division," short for "Cross-Domain Computing Solutions," which focuses on the development of intelligent solutions. In the field of intelligent cockpit, the first mass production project has been put into production, the localization research and development of the domain control platform has covered mainstream Chinese brands, and in the field of ADAS driver assistance, more than 50 L2 and L2+ mass production projects have been realized.
Xu Daquan said that Bosch will continue to increase investment in electrification and intelligence in the future. Especially for ADAS driver assistance, 2022 is a critical year. Together with its partners, Bosch will create a higher level of L2+ driver assistance solutions.
This is also the reason why Bosch has actively invested in innovative companies such as Momenta and Black Sesame in the past. Bosch hopes to strengthen cooperation with innovative companies and promote the implementation of high-level intelligent driving technologies and products faster.
However, the investment does not mean that Bosch itself will completely abandon the related business. Xu Daquan told the think tank Jun that Bosch is also conducting the research and development of SoCs (System-on-Chips). According to foreign media reports, Bosch reorganized its chip development in Germany into two divisions, one of which is responsible for SoCs for ADAS, SoCs for ADAS sensors such as radar and IP modules, and the other is responsible for sensor ASICs (as-applied integrated circuits).
As a major supplier of automotive systems such as ESP (Body Electronic Stability System), Bosch made headlines last year due to the shortage of chips, and Xu Daquan has repeatedly said that the shortage of chips in the automotive industry will continue.
In the interview, he told the think tank Jun that the chip supply in 2022 will still not be able to meet all the needs of the main engine factory, and this year's automobile production will still be largely subject to the supply of chips. However, with the new production capacity of chip manufacturers, the shortage of chips is expected to be alleviated in the second half of the year.
The following is the conversation between the think tank Jun and Xu Daquan (hereinafter referred to as Xu) (with abridgements):
"Every family has the problem of distribution"
Think Tank Jun: What is the current situation of chip supply?
Xu Daquan: This year's chip supply situation is still very tight, and it is still unable to meet all the needs of the main engine factory, and there is a problem of distribution in every home. We predict that the supply of chips will be low and then high in 2022, and the gap in the first two quarters will be larger, and we expect that the situation may improve in the last two quarters.
Think Tank Jun: Are the types that are missing now similar to last year?
Xu Daquan: The chips that were missing last year are still lacking, and some of the chips that were not lacking last year are now beginning to be lacking. There are 500 to 1,000 chips in a car, and these chips are very diverse, involving multiple suppliers, so the overall supply is in a state of constant flux. Overall, the market is still in a situation of short supply and demand, and the situation is still very grim.
Think Tank Jun: Is there still stock in the spot market?
Xu Daquan: It has little to do with the spot market, and perhaps some chips have goods to sweep in the spot market, but this cannot solve the fundamental problem that production capacity cannot keep up with demand.
Think Tank Jun: Some manufacturers have announced the expansion of production capacity, will this effectively alleviate the chip shortage this year?
Xu Daquan: Solving this problem requires a long-term process, and the production capacity of the entire industrial chain must be improved, not only chip manufacturers, but also foundry companies such as TSMC and downstream supply chains. For now, the situation should improve in the second half of this year.
Think Tank Jun: Is Bosch doing some work to evaluate domestic chips now?
Xu Daquan: Yes, we also hope to find domestic suppliers to supply, but at present, there are still very few local manufacturers that can stably provide vehicle-grade chips. Chips with relatively simple processes and relatively low quality requirements, such as in the field of household appliances, many chips have achieved localization, but there are still not many that can meet the requirements of the car standard level, especially MCU chips and low-nanometer high-end chips, and car standard-level large computing chips.
In addition to the supply chain and production capacity, the chip industry also has certain challenges in business, because the number of automotive chips is far less than that of consumer goods, and if you only make automotive chips, it is difficult to achieve profitability in business. Comprehensively improving the supply capacity of chips also requires long-term industrial strategic layout and policy support.
Think tank Jun: Bosch has invested in companies such as Black Sesame, will it also make AI chips itself?
Xu Daquan: Investment and research and development are not contradictory, Bosch is also a chip supplier, we have reached strategic cooperation with these companies, making full use of the experience and resources of both sides to promote the landing of high-level intelligent driving, but at the same time we are also developing chips, such as SoC chips, sensor chips and so on.
Automobile production will continue to increase
Think Tank Jun: China's automobile production and sales have just ended the "three consecutive declines", can you look forward to the performance in 2022?
Xu Daquan: China's automobile production will definitely grow this year, because the shortage of chips last year led to a decline in the inventory of various OEMs, and the OEMs will increase production accordingly to make up for the inventory of the whole vehicle. As for whether the final consumption increases, it depends on the state of the economy and the consumption side.
Think Tank Jun: Will the pressure on the supply chain continue?
Xu Daquan: Now there is a certain amount of inflation in the world, the price of raw materials has increased greatly, and the price of chips has also increased significantly, so the automotive industry is still in a state of sharp increase in costs, and the supply chain side is also jointly discussing countermeasures.
Think Tank Jun: Bosch said that in 2021, its own brands will contribute far more sales than joint venture brands. Under the trend of intelligence and electrification, what changes will occur in the pattern of the automotive market?
Xu Daquan: The market share of independent brands is increasing, because in the development and investment of new energy vehicles, independent brands are more active and growing rapidly, and we are very optimistic about the future development of independent brands.
Think tank Jun: The first wave of new car-making forces (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, etc.), new brands incubated by traditional OEMs (Extreme Krypton, Zhiji, etc.), and technology companies that are about to enter car-making (Huawei, Xiaomi, etc.), who has a better chance to win in the future?
Xu Daquan: The development momentum of domestic electric vehicles is fierce, and a hundred schools are competing. Who wins in the future also depends on the product, technology and service. Tesla's performance in China is also very good, and it is foreseeable that the next competitive situation will be more intense.
From "Supply Chain" to "Supply Ecosystem"
Think Tank Jun: In the era of intelligent electric, what do you think is the soul of car companies?
Xu Daquan: Different people have different views.
In the past, traditional cars focused on the performance and handling of engines and gearboxes, but now everyone has begun to exert efforts on intelligence. Many car companies are also developing their own intelligent cockpit and autonomous driving technology, through intelligence and software to achieve brand differences. This is the current trend. In the future, perhaps more from the perspective of human travel, how to truly solve the traffic problem and make travel more low-carbon and more convenient.
Think Tank Jun: Can the differentiation of the ecosystem really be built? The addition of ecosystem enterprises does not seem to be exclusive.
Xu Daquan: Everyone tends to think that it is important to build an independent ecology, but from the perspective of consumers, perhaps more people are concerned about the convenience and the ecology that helps them solve problems. Therefore, ecology needs to be built together, and it is an ecology that serves the public.
Think Tank Jun: Will the supply chain of the traditional automotive industry change a lot?
Xu Daquan: Building the hardware, software and ecology of intelligent vehicles will require multi-party cooperation and cooperation. For example, when the smart cockpit is developed, it is often a joint cooperation between the three parties, the four parties and the main engine factory. That's why I said that the word "supply chain" should become a "supply circle" in the future, and the supply system will no longer be a vertical supply chain, but a cooperative supply ecosystem.
"Mobility operation is a bigger piece of cake"
Think Tank Jun: In the field of hydrogen fuel cells, what is the next rhythm of Bosch, and what products or solutions will enter the market?
Xu Daquan: Bosch has realized the full localization of hydrogen fuel cell systems, from key components to system integration. There are now many vehicles in demonstration operation, and the next step is to achieve larger mass production and more customers to be able to use Bosch's hydrogen fuel system.
Think Tank Jun: From Bosch's point of view, what are the big challenges facing the large-scale landing of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Xu Daquan: On the one hand, it is the construction of infrastructure, including the production, storage, transportation, and layout of hydrogen refueling stations for hydrogen fuel. In addition, from the perspective of long-term operation, it is necessary to solve the problems of hydrogen sources and cost control of hydrogen fuel engines. At this stage, the cost is still relatively high, and it still relies on subsidies.
We hope to gather the strength of all parties to solve the above problems at this stage and realize the large-scale landing of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as soon as possible.
Think Tank Jun: What is Bosch's layout idea in the field of electrification and intelligence?
Xu Daquan: In terms of electrification, we have products such as silicon carbide chips, bridges, electronic controls, hydrogen fuel cells and thermal management systems; in terms of intelligence, there are ADAS and automatic driving, intelligent cockpits, the latest electronic and electrical architecture technology, and future steer-by-wire technology.
But what we all need to explore deeply is what will happen to the future of human travel patterns? When fully autonomous driving is widely achieved, what will our mobility look like? Will private cars still exist? Will travel operators be at the top of the industrial chain, and OEMs become foundries? The automotive industry at that time may be completely different from today, and the division of labor will be different.
Finding your own living space and committing to the creation of related technologies is the way to survive.
Attached: Expert members of China Automotive 30 Think Tank (in no particular order)
Fu Yuwu Honorary Chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China
Wang Binggang Director of the Technical Committee of the National Electric Passenger Vehicle Technology Innovation Alliance
An Qingheng is the director of the Advisory Committee of the Chinese Automobile Industry and the former chairman of BAIC Group
Zuo Yan'an Former Chairman of Jianghuai Automobile
Fuquan Zhao, Dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy at Tsinghua University
Shen Jinjun is the president of China Automobile Dealers Association
Zhao Ying is a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Lin Lei Partner and Managing Director of Dapu Capital
Mei Songlin Vice President of Strategic Operations of WM Motors
He Lun, President of the Automotive Research Institute of NetCom
Zhong Shi senior automotive media person
Junyi Zhang Is the former Managing Partner of NIO Capital and the former Global Partner of Roland Berger
Liu Xiaozhi Founder and CEO of Aslan Technology Co., Ltd
Xu Xiangyang is a professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the executive deputy director of the National Passenger Car Automatic Transmission Engineering Technology Research Center
Cai Wei, Chief Scientist of the Engineering Research Center for Automotive Electronic Drive Control and System Integration of the Ministry of Education, Professor Touyan of Harbin University of Science and Technology, and founder of Jingjin Electric
Wu Songquan is a senior chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center
Shi Xuesong Vice President of Tencent Auto Union, CEO of Nanjing Falcon Eye Electronic Technology Co., Ltd
Gu Jianmin, CTO of Valeo Group China
Cui Dongshu Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association
Zheng Yun, Global Senior Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
![Foreseeing the | 2022 Cui Dongshu: The price of new energy vehicles is not expected to rise significantly in 2022[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)