It is foreseen that | 2022, trams and oil vehicles will face each other in a "tug-of-war between attack and defense"

It is a small probability that an existing joint venture car company has become a wholly foreign-owned enterprise, because the role of the Chinese side's "crutch" has always existed.

Text | Song Doudou, Chen Yihao

On February 18, the latest data from the China Automobile Association showed that automobile production and sales reached 2.422 million units and 2.531 million units in January this year, down 16.7% and 9.2% month-on-month, and 1.4% and 0.9% year-on-year. In January, production and sales declined month-on-month, showing a slight increase year-on-year. However, the performance of new energy vehicles remained outstanding, with production and sales reaching 452,000 units and 431,000 units, respectively, down 12.6% and 18.6% month-on-month, and up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year.

In 2022, driven by the "double carbon" strategy, China's new energy vehicle market will continue to grow; automobiles are accelerating from traditional manufacturing industries to cross-industry integration of high-tech industries, China's intelligent networked vehicles have great prospects, and China is also becoming the innovation fulcrum of the global automotive industry.

However, the domestic automobile market is also facing the impact of various factors such as the rise of raw materials and the intensification of enterprise competition, and the shortage of chips and the local epidemic will also have a certain impact on the production of automobiles. In addition, as Chinese automobiles fully relax the restrictions on joint venture share ratios in 2022, it will also have a certain impact on the pattern of China's automotive industry.

Before the Spring Festival, in the "Tribute to 2021 | In the article "Chinese Automobile, Tear Down the Wall in the Mind", the think tank Jun reviewed the changes in China's auto industry in 2021, and now we will combine industry dynamics and company layout to try to foresee new changes, new patterns and new trends in the automotive industry in 2022.

Recently, China Automotive 30 Think Tank officially launched the "Foresee 2022" series of interviews, inviting experts in various fields of China's automotive industry to predict the pattern and trend of China's automobiles in 2022.

In 2021, when the first batch of New Chinese Internet car-making forces crossed the line of life and death and initially gained a foothold, Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Apple and other technology giants have poured into the car-making track, and at the end of 2021, a wave of car-making "after-wave" includes the light orange era, box cars, Maverick electric, group cars, etc. to open the car-making industry...

In Zhong Shi's view, existence is reasonable, and the investment logic lies in the development logic of looking forward to the prospects. "In a market plate with more than 20 million passenger car market size and nearly 5 million commercial vehicles, new energy vehicles are constantly encroaching on the market share of traditional fuel vehicles, and electric vehicles are constantly being fully armed with intelligence, and these two points alone bring great expectations to new investors."

Zhong Shi believes that at present, the share of new energy vehicles has formed an aggressive offensive against the share of traditional fuel vehicles, and the tug-of-war between attack and defense has been directly caught in flames. "Because the space for the new energy vehicle market is large enough, Tesla has not become a shark, just a ride in the dust, and all the heroes have chased after it." It is worth paying attention to how the new intelligent electric vehicles of the joint venture foreign parties will show dew in the market this year; what is expected is whether the head of the new car-making forces will break the situation of going hand in hand and open up the competitive situation of each other. ”

The following is a transcript of the interview, with abridgements:

Think Tank Jun: With the gradual easing of the "lack of core" problem, the landing of new industrial policies and the entry of new player products, what kind of competitive pattern will the automobile industry form in 2022?

Zhong Shi: The two-year global epidemic has not caused a heavy blow to the Chinese auto market, but on the contrary, the "lack of core" has brought about a block to the increase in automobile production and sales. This year's automobile production and sales will still be affected by the lack of cores, but the impact will only gradually become smaller. China's total auto sales are already very large, and it is not realistic to have a significant increase in this huge total sales volume until many factors have not changed substantially.

In the following few years, the production and sales of fuel vehicles still dominate, and it is optimistic that the total sales of new energy vehicles this year can rise to 4-5 million, which is a major event that the global auto industry is extremely concerned about, and all multinational car companies will measure the torque of their own transformation with this coordinate.

The share of new energy vehicles has formed an aggressive offensive against the share of traditional fuel vehicles, and the tug-of-war between attack and defense has been caught in the face. Because the space for the new energy vehicle market to rise is large enough, Tesla has not become a shark, but only a ride in the dust, and all kinds of heroes have chased after it. It is worth paying attention to how the new intelligent electric vehicles of the joint venture foreign parties will show dew in the market this year; what is expected is whether the head of the new car-making forces will break the situation of going hand in hand and open up the competitive situation of each other.

Think tank Jun: At the end of 2021, a wave of car-making "after-wave", including the light orange era, box cars, Maverick electric, group cars, etc. entered the field of complete vehicles, opening the "car-making industry", what is the reason for choosing to cut into the car-making track at this moment? What are its prospects?

Zhong Shi: Enterprises with different backgrounds have rushed to the field of intelligent electric vehicles, no matter how many new cars will be "photographed dead on the beach" in the future, at present, existence is reasonable, and the investment logic lies in the development logic of looking forward to the prospects.

In a market plate with a market size of more than 20 million passenger cars and a scale of nearly 5 million commercial vehicles, new energy vehicles are constantly encroaching on the market share of traditional fuel vehicles, and electric vehicles are constantly being intelligently armed, these two points alone bring great expectations to new investors, and investors will think that a new outlet for the transformation of the automotive industry has come and must be squeezed into a new track opened up by history. The more influx, the more competitive world-class enterprises can always stand out in the end, and there can be no process of competing for the flow.

Think Tank Jun: From January 1, 2022, the restriction on the joint venture share ratio of passenger cars has been officially abolished, what is the impact of this policy on the development of domestic automobiles? How will it affect the development pattern of joint venture car companies?

Zhong Shi: The passenger car products of the joint venture only occupy half of the market, and the industry has full expectations for the abolition of the share ratio restriction, and the policy has long been announced, so it will not cause unpredictable turbulence and impact on the automobile industry. However, it does have a significant role in enhancing the voice of foreign shareholders in decision-making and management of joint venture car companies, and the result of the share ratio depends on the strength, contribution and value of the Chinese side, and it is a small probability event that the existing joint venture car companies have become wholly foreign-owned, because the role of the Chinese side's "crutch" always exists. Tesla's sole proprietorship is the result of new policies and new models, and traditional joint venture car companies cannot emulate them.

Think Tank Jun: In order to seize the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle market, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Huawei, Great Wall, Weima and others launched new models equipped with lidar and released them this year. There is a view that lidar will be amplified in 2022, so will L3-level autonomous driving technology vehicles also be popularized?

Zhong Shi: Because domestic car companies cannot achieve the results that Tesla's technical line has achieved in terms of intelligence, they have to take another way to take lidar and other technical lines to make L3-level vehicles meet the requirements of safety regulations. The problem is that if the purchase cost of the lidar system cannot meet the market's expectations for the price of the car, it will cause the situation of "applause or not" in vehicle sales. L3-level advanced driver assistance technology is a new application that is widely embraced by car owners, but cost determines success or failure.

Attached: Expert members of China Automotive 30 Think Tank (in no particular order)

Fu Yuwu Honorary Chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China

Wang Binggang Director of the Technical Committee of the National Electric Passenger Vehicle Technology Innovation Alliance

An Qingheng is the director of the Advisory Committee of the Chinese Automobile Industry and the former chairman of BAIC Group

Zuo Yan'an Former Chairman of Jianghuai Automobile

Fuquan Zhao, Dean of the Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy at Tsinghua University

Shen Jinjun is the president of China Automobile Dealers Association

Zhao Ying is a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Lin Lei Partner and Managing Director of Dapu Capital

Mei Songlin Vice President of Strategic Operations of WM Motors

He Lun, President of the Automotive Research Institute of NetCom

Zhong Shi senior automotive media person

Junyi Zhang Is the former Managing Partner of NIO Capital and the former Global Partner of Roland Berger

Liu Xiaozhi Founder and CEO of Aslan Technology Co., Ltd

Xu Xiangyang is a professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the executive deputy director of the National Passenger Car Automatic Transmission Engineering Technology Research Center

Cai Wei, Chief Scientist of the Engineering Research Center for Automotive Electronic Drive Control and System Integration of the Ministry of Education, Professor Touyan of Harbin University of Science and Technology, and founder of Jingjin Electric

Wu Songquan is a senior chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center

Shi Xuesong Vice President of Tencent Auto Union, CEO of Nanjing Falcon Eye Electronic Technology Co., Ltd

Gu Jianmin, CTO of Valeo Group China

Cui Dongshu Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association

Zheng Yun, Global Senior Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Yang Diange Is the Director of the Discipline Office of Tsinghua University and the first Dean of the School of Vehicles and Vehicles