As early as many years ago, the economist Professor Lang Xianping said long ago: Taobao is not dead, the entity is not prosperous, and China is not rich!
Now this sentence is being fulfilled, in the next 3-5 years Taobao or will face a phase-out crisis, the next 9.5 trillion yuan of wealth-making outlet is coming: physical stores and new individual practitioners are the biggest beneficiaries!
Why? After reading the following 3 core elements, you will understand!
1. The root cause of the rise and fall of Taobao
2. Business opportunities after consumption upgrades
3. Physical stores and new individual economy
One
Why can Taobao crush physical stores, and why can it attract a large number of users?
Some people think that it is the credit of Ma Yun, some people think that it is the promotion of SoftBank Capital, and some people say that the rise of China's Internet has driven the rise of Taobao. Not really.
There is only one fundamental reason, that is, most ordinary people are too poor.
Ordinary people want to start a business to open a physical store, rent a store a year to hundreds of thousands, plus a variety of taxes, most people can only be deterred.
But since there is Taobao and e-commerce, not only does it not need rent, there is no tax, and every ordinary person has the opportunity to start a business.
Since there is no need for rent and taxation to open a store on Taobao, the cost of starting a business is relatively low, and e-commerce sellers have a price advantage.
For example, the same clothing offline physical store sold in 1999, the e-commerce platform as long as 199 yuan, at this time more than 600 million consumers will choose to buy e-commerce.
Because there are 600 million people in China who have a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan, and most people have a monthly income of only 3,000-5,000 yuan, online shopping is a last resort.
However, with more and more e-commerce sellers, the current traffic dividend of Taobao has disappeared, the cost of customer acquisition by sellers is also increasing, the price advantage of e-commerce has ceased to exist, and e-commerce sellers and users have begun to migrate.
Two
Since the rise of e-commerce, there have been basically 20 years, and in these 20 years, some people have been lifted out of poverty, and some people have become poorer and poorer. Therefore, there has been a consumption upgrade in the market.
People with low income ability will choose to buy cheaper goods after the market consumption upgrade, so there will be a struggle. The main consumer groups of Pinxi xixi are from outside the fifth ring road and from the fourth and fifth tier cities.
The other part of the rich people, or the middle class, have sufficient economic conditions and spending power to no longer be interested in Taobao and Pinxi's products.
In the process of consumption decision-making, they no longer care about price, but quality, brand, taste and the experience value offline.
It can be seen that after five years, whether it is a first- or second-tier city, or a fourth- or fifth-tier city, there will be a large number of physical stores.
However, the physical stores mentioned here are no longer street shops, and small merchants in the form of mom-and-pop shops and self-employed households are brand stores, flagship stores, and experience stores.
Attentive friends can pay attention to the fact that single stores on the street are now transferring, while large commercial complexes and large chain brand stores are increasing. These are all new opportunities brought by consumption upgrades to physical stores.
Three
Where people have money, the decline of Taobao is also directly related to the changes in people's living habits.
Now everyone has a mobile phone, and everyone spends an average of about 3 hours a day on the short video platform.
Then at this time, in addition to e-commerce consumption, offline consumption, people will also choose to consume on short video platforms.
For example, when you brush a short video, you will click to buy when you see your favorite product, and there is no need to go to e-commerce shopping.
And this kind of purchase will also become the mainstream in the future, at the 2021 e-commerce conference, the president of a voice e-commerce predicted that the size of this algorithm-oriented interest e-commerce market will exceed 9.5 trillion yuan in the next 3 years.
This 9.5 trillion yuan is not only a wealth creation opportunity for new individual entrepreneurs, anchors and bloggers, but also a new opportunity for every physical store. Why?
When most people meet their material needs, they are no longer looking for price, but brand, quality, and taste, as we said above.
To meet this demand of consumers, on the one hand, it needs to be satisfied by high-brand stores, and on the other hand, it needs the addition of new individual entrepreneurs.
For example, if a customer wants to buy a piece of clothing, they need not only the brand and quality of the clothes, but also the wearing and matching, as well as a new lifestyle. This requires new individual entrepreneurs such as anchors and bloggers to provide.
As long as the new individual has a personal brand, can help others to provide solutions other than the product, and can make money by attaching to the short video platform.
Because they (new individual entrepreneurs) can cooperate with large supply chain platforms and large chain enterprises to build new business models and business forms.
At the same time, in the future, each physical store can use short videos to create a model of online drainage and offline experience.
Physical stores can meet the needs of consumers' brands and experiences through corporate live broadcasts and the matrix of the same city number.
In the future, each large chain enterprise can empower franchisees or directly operated stores, so that each physical store has its own same city number, release content through the same city number, attract customers to the end, and deliver the physical store as a front warehouse.
This new shopping scenario can help obtain accurate customers in the same city, amplify the offline traffic, and increase the experience value of physical stores.
When Taobao declined, there were only two options for starting a business, opening a physical store or being a new individual. But how should these two ways of starting a business work?
If you want to learn more about new individual entrepreneurship and the transformation of physical stores, you can go to the column to learn!