According to foreign media reports on February 10, NATO countries have recently launched diplomatic activities in response to tensions between Russia and Ukraine, but it seems that little progress has been made.
On February 10, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian-Belarusian "Alliance Determination-2022" joint military exercise officially began on the same day. According to reports, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy on Wednesday (9th) said that the military exercise launched by Russia and Belarus along the Ukrainian border was "psychological pressure". Since the 10th, Ukraine has also begun to hold military exercises with weapons provided by the West, and will use weapons such as "flag bearer" drones and "javelin" portable anti-tank missiles.
Ukrainian soldiers received training last week on ammunition, which was supplied by the United States
In addition to the military, people across Ukraine have also begun to "prepare for war", including some paramilitary groups. While these "nationalist armed groups" pose a threat to Russia's borders, they could also destabilize Ukraine's interior, a double-edged sword that may have become the biggest risk to Ukraine today.
It is unclear whether Western leaders and Russia can negotiate a solution to the crisis, but any solution seems likely to force Kiev to accept political "dangerous concessions" that could anger the country's armed nationalist groups and even commit actions that undermine domestic stability. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, proposed this week to "Finnishize" Ukraine to keep it neutral between Russia and NATO, as was Finland during the Cold War. "Macron wants to sacrifice Ukraine's sovereignty to appease Russia, but he doesn't understand that this actually won't work." Oleksand Ivanov, head of a domestic ukrainian group called the Campaign Against Capitulation, said the group planned to hold street protests in Kiev on Saturday and that "diplomats don't know much about Ukraine, where civil society has a greater impact on politics than actual political parties." For President Zelenskiy, he added, "the threat of war is really just a threat, but signing a compromise agreement will certainly spark protests." ”
Ukrainian people training in the snow
Another paramilitary group with strong influence in Ukraine, the Democratic Ax, is equally strongly opposed to any compromises made by the Ukrainian government to Moscow. The group's leader, Yuri Hudymanko, said he was ready to take up arms, but not necessarily against Russia. If the Ukrainian government makes too many concessions in exchange for peace, his anger will be directed at the Ukrainian government, "If anyone in the Ukrainian government tries to sign such a document, a million people will take to the streets, and the government will no longer be a government." ”
HudyManko, head of "Democratic Ax," said paramilitary training was already being provided to its members
Ukraine has dozens of nationalist groups like the "Anti-Capitulation Movement" and "Democratic Ax." More recently, the Ukrainian government has even urged these groups to strengthen their forces in the face of the threat of war posed by Russia's massing of troops on the Ukrainian border. But these groups are a "double-edged sword" that threatens not only the Kremlin but also the Ukrainian government. The groups argue that if Zelenskiy agrees to a peace deal that they see as too much of a benefit to Moscow, the Ukrainian government could be shocked and possibly even overthrown.
The Zaporozhye Regional Defence Headquarters is organizing first aid training courses for civilians
Foreign media reported that the peace talks so far have not slowed Russia's military buildup near the Ukrainian border. Hudymanko said his group was already providing paramilitary training to its members, and Zelenskiy's government could be under double pressure from ukrainians and Russian troops. The threat is not "unfounded," after the country's citizens have twice marched through the streets to oust leaders they deem bad. Some analysts say Zelenskiy would take great political risks even to reach a peace deal, which is why he was so careful not to talk about possible negotiating avenues.
Macron worked this week to conduct diplomatic activities to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine's foreign and defense ministers have said in recent days that the biggest risk to the country is internal instability under the threat of Russia's border with ukraine, rather than a real external attack. Even Ukraine's mainstream political parties oppose concessions to Russia and say they will call on people to hold protests if that happens. "All of French President Emmanuel Macron's actions were carried out as france's April elections approached." Vladimir Aliyev, a former Ukrainian president of the European Solidarity Party, who was once part of the European Solidarity Party, said, "I can understand, but we should not follow the interests of France or Macron, but we should follow the interests of Ukraine." ”
Red Star News reporter Hu Yiling
Edited by Pan Li
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