Author 丨 Xu Jinkai Luo Chao
Responsible editor 丨 Xu Jinkai
Edit 丨 Chic
"Years later, the Great Wall will come over a few leaders and start to prepare."
"I am recruiting people, and after going to work after the Spring Festival, I will start to prepare the factory, and I will produce the Great Wall car later."
After "swallowing" the production bases of Zotye such as Hanteng and Hanlong, Zotye's own Linyi factory has recently become the bag of the Great Wall.
The destination of Zotye Linyi Factory
Although the news of great wall's acquisition of Zotye Linyi factory has only been discussed in the "share bar", it seems to have become an open secret in Linyi. It is worth mentioning that in the Gaode map, No. 76 Hongkong Road, Hedong District, Linyi City has become the Linyi branch of Great Wall Motors, and it is not difficult to speculate from the layout of the Zotye Bus Station and linyi Zotye Hotel next to it, which was previously the world of Zotye.
"This is basically a matter of certainty, the Great Wall, Zotye, and the Linyi Municipal Government have not mentioned the great wall to take over the Zotye factory, perhaps to avoid suspicion, after all, the matter of Baoneng's entry into the Zotye factory has caused an uproar and ended in failure." Some industry insiders analyzed it.
Indeed, as the former "traffic king", every step of Zotye Automobile has aroused widespread concern among netizens, as early as the beginning of 2021, the official website of the Linyi Bureau of Commerce has released the news that "Baoneng Work Class comprehensively carries out accurate docking around project cooperation", and it is mentioned that the cooperation project between Baoneng Automobile and Linyi Zhongtai has entered the substantive negotiation stage, and for a time the industry thought that Baoneng was the "white knight" of Zotye, and the stock price of Zotye flew up in response.
Maybe the impact is too wide, or perhaps there are some problems in the cooperation between Baoneng and Zotye, a few days later, the article on the official website of the Linyi Bureau of Commerce that "Baoneng work class comprehensively carries out accurate docking around project cooperation" was deleted, and Linyi Zhongtai became a mystery, until Great Wall Motors settled in Linyi, and the majority of shareholders gradually had speculations about the Great Wall taking over Zotye.
On November 28 last year, Great Wall Motor held a signing ceremony for the Linyi vehicle and parts production base project in Jinan. At the meeting, Hao Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Industrial Group, said: "The Linyi vehicle production base project will be built into a comprehensive base with the whole vehicle as the core, the collection of key components and related industries as the service. Through future development, we will build a high-quality automobile industry cluster in Linyi, drive industrial transformation and upgrading, and gather new momentum for the high-quality development of Linyi. ”
It is reported that the Great Wall Motor Linyi vehicle and parts production base project mainly builds an annual output of 120,000 vehicle production bases, engine and parts production bases, etc., after completion and operation, it is expected to achieve an annual output value of 20 billion yuan, while driving more than ten supporting enterprises in the automobile industry to settle in, solving the employment of nearly 10,000 people.
According to the news released by the local media, the Linyi base will be responsible for the production of the two latest models of the Great Wall, and at present, the two cars have been fully developed and can be directly mass-produced and put on the market.
It is not difficult to see from this state that the Great Wall has made a clear plan for the Linyi base and can soon be put into production and operation, which is the best proof that it will take over the Zotye factory and put it into operation quickly, and on the other hand, it is also the situation that the Linyi Municipal Government is eager to see.
As early as 2013 when Zotye settled in Linyi, it had filled the gap in Linyi City's automobile manufacturing industry, the whole city was full of expectations for this project, how nai "Zotye-style development" is not long, Linyi City's automobile industry development is not smooth, and now that governments at all levels are vigorously promoting the intelligent automobile industry, seizing the opportunity to revitalize "existing assets" has become the best choice for Linyi City, which may be its original intention to promote Baoneng, Zotye contact and the introduction of Great Wall Motors.
From the perspective of the industrial chain of the Great Wall, the distance between Linyi and Rizhao two bases is only 150 kilometers, and the concentration of production capacity can effectively reduce the cost of supporting supply chains, and the two production bases support each other, share talents, technology and other resources, carry out production coordination linkage, and improve comprehensive strength and regional competitiveness.
Go against the cycle
"If Chinese auto brands want to achieve real transcendence, only by rapidly amplifying existing advantages in these 3-5 years can they lead the new track of new energy and intelligence." And there is only one opportunity for Chinese car brands. ”
Wei Jianjun has always had a strong sense of distress, especially in the two years of turmoil in the automobile industry, this sense of distress has prompted the Great Wall to establish a rapid response mechanism from the R & D system to the user ecology, from the institutional mechanism to the industrial layout, from the inside to the outside.
In order to seize the window period of life and death, Wei Jianjun and the Great Wall are obviously fighting, whether it is the "excessive investment" of 100 billion research and development, or the shocking 2025 market target of 4 million vehicles, all of which show that betting on the corporate fate of the next 30 years, the Great Wall is bound to embark on a "counter-cyclical" expansion road.
"Leave the market when there is a hustle and bustle, enter the market when it is quiet", which is quite famous in the investment industry, is precisely a brilliant commentary for the development of the Great Wall. 8 years ago, Wei Jianjun put down his obsession and resolutely left the mainstream car market, and 8 years later, China's auto industry ushered in a moment of convergence opportunity in the division of destruction and decay, and the Great Wall entered the market non-stop.
The Great Wall's capacity expansion strategy is old and spicy, and it is precisely with this unprecedented wave of bankruptcy that the Great Wall can purchase idle capacity everywhere at a price much lower than the market, and quickly meet its capacity expansion needs.
On the one hand, Great Wall acquired production bases, factories and plant production equipment, and will not participate in bankruptcy and restructuring, and does not bear debt liabilities, which is the case with Hanteng, Hanlong and now Zotye Linyi Factory. In this way, it can not only reduce unnecessary debt disputes, reduce factory construction investment, shorten the production cycle, and speed up the commissioning speed, but also harvest various favorable support policies under the endorsement of the local government to maximize benefits.
On the other hand, the Great Wall's "takeover" move is indeed in line with the ardent hope of many local governments to revitalize the production capacity of idle cars, and is an objective demand for enhancing industrial concentration. It can be said that once the high-quality Great Wall Motor resources are stationed, they will definitely reconstruct and integrate the local industrial chain, which is likely to pull the development of the local industrial cluster back to the right track.
Like geely before it, the Great Wall's frequent takeover in the past two years has enabled it to achieve vehicle production area coverage in North China, East China, Southwest China and Central China, and its production capacity map covers the north and south of Xinjiang.
Judging from the current domestic production capacity, the annual production capacity of the Great Wall Tianjin base is planned to be 500,000 vehicles; the Baoding factory (including the three major factories of pickup trucks, SUVs and cars) has a production capacity of 400,000 vehicles; the planned annual production capacity of the Xushui Smart Factory is 1 million; the Rizhao factory mainly produces Weipai series products, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles; the Great Wall Yongchuan production base, which produces high-end pickup trucks and tanks 300 and other models, has an annual production capacity of 250,000 vehicles; and the annual production capacity of the Taizhou factory and the Pinghu plant is 100,000 vehicles After the completion of the Zhangjiagang base of Beam Automobile, the planned annual production capacity is 160,000 vehicles; the Jingmen plant that puts into production of 500 tanks can achieve an annual production capacity of 150,000 units; the newly acquired Hanteng Phase II factory plans to form an annual production capacity of 120,000 SUV vehicle production capacity; the planned production capacity of the Hanlong plant has also reached 100,000 units, plus the 120,000 production capacity of the Zotye Linyi plant and the ratio factory that has not yet been clearly planned, roughly calculated, the total production capacity of Great Wall Motors has exceeded 3 million units. It is basically the same as Geely's capacity planning.
Of course, such a large-scale production capacity layout will inevitably become a double-edged sword. Last year, great wall sales reached 1.28 million units, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year. In the stormy 2021, the double-digit market growth is far ahead of the market, which is not easy, after all, Geely, which ranks first in the annual sales of independent passenger cars, has only increased by 1%.
Unfortunately, this sales performance is still far from the sales target of 1.49 million vehicles in the 2021 equity incentive plan. In other words, it is important to quickly build a flexible and effective capacity layout and supporting system, but how to formulate an effective overcapacity response mechanism, methodically optimize the allocation of production capacity, open up new market segments, and cooperate with the established strategies of going south and exploring up, and gradually digesting the existing production capacity is the top priority of the Great Wall in the past 3 years.
It is worth noting that although the Great Wall did not pay too much price when acquiring many idle capacity, the cost of factory transformation, equipment maintenance, and management will rise sharply with the gradual operation of the base. If in the past 2 years, the Great Wall can smoothly impact or approach the 2.8 million vehicles in the equity incentive plan and the net profit of 11.5 billion yuan, providing benign resource support for the rapid operation of production capacity, then the production base purchased today will be mutually successful with the Great Wall, but once there is a fluctuation or lack of strength, the Great Wall will also face more severe liquidity risks, resulting in the imbalance of the Great Wall's established strategy.
All in all, there is still some uncertainty about the future capacity expansion of the Great Wall, but it is certain that the strong merge the weak, and then the strong and the strong confront, which is the inevitable path for China to become an automobile power. In the current environment of the great power game, manufacturing is the most core competitiveness in the game, and the acquisition of Zotye Linyi Factory will not be an exception, and the story here continues...