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Comprehensive source: Financial World Weekly, Daily Economic News
As of the early morning of February 1, Beijing time, the US stock market closed sharply higher, the three major stock indexes closed up across the board, the Dow Jones index rose more than 400 points, the Nasdaq rose 3.4%, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.89%. Big tech stocks rose collectively, with Netflix up 11.13%, Amazon up 3.89%, Facebook up 3.83%, Apple up 2.61%, Google up 1.46%, and Microsoft up 0.88%.
Driven by the rally in the broader market, popular Chinese stocks have taken advantage of the trend. Among them, iQiyi rose 16.57% to lead, Bilibili and Shell rose more than 15%, Pinduoduo rose 12%, Ali rose 9%, and as of the close, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose more than 10.9%.
It is worth noting that although the S&P 500 recorded two consecutive positives, it still recorded its worst monthly trend since March 2020.
On January 26, local time in the United States, Fed Chairman Powell said that in order to curb the strongest inflation in four decades, shopping malls need to be prepared for a march interest rate hike, saying that the possibility of raising interest rates at every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not ruled out.
From the perspective of market performance, since the beginning of 2022, the pressure on technology stocks to rise sharply in US treasury yields has fallen a lot. However, with the continuous decline in valuation, there are more and more voices of "bottom reading".
Leading technology stocks closed higher across the board
Chinese stocks rose like a rainbow
In terms of individual stocks, leading technology stocks closed higher across the board, and Tesla closed up more than 10%. Among the six technology stocks of the former FAANMG and now GANMMA, the best performing Netflix closed up more than 11%, Amazon and Facebook's Meta rose nearly 4%, Apple closed up 2.6%, Google's parent company Alphabet rose nearly 1.5%, and Microsoft, which turned down many times during the session, closed up nearly 0.9%.
But in January, these technology stocks all fell cumulatively, with Netflix falling more than 28%, Tesla falling about 22%, Amazon falling more than 12%, Microsoft and Meta falling more than 7%, Alphabet falling more than 6%, and Apple falling about 4%.
Chinese stocks continued the hong kong stock rally in the last trading day of the Year of the Bull.
Pinduoduo closed up 12.8% ahead of the NASDAQ 100 constituents, while another constituent, JD.com, closed up about 8%.
Among other Chinese stocks, Yixian E-commerce closed up more than 24% to lead the way, Dada Group rose nearly 19%, NetEase Youdao, Weilai Automobile, Qutoutiao rose more than 17%, Luckin Coffee, Zhihu, iQiyi rose more than 16%, B station, Shell rose more than 15%, Yueke e-cigarette parent company Wuxin Technology, Weibo, Huya rose more than 12%, Tencent Music, Momo, Futu Securities rose more than 10%, Alibaba, Xiaopeng Automobile, Baidu rose more than 9%, Ideal Auto rose nearly 9%, Gaotu Education rose more than 8.2%, Good Future, New Oriental, NetEase rose more than 7 percent and Tencent ADR rose nearly 6 percent.
Predict the rate at which the Fed will raise interest rates
Economists are divided
After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that it would take a more aggressive approach than expected to combat its strongest inflation in 40 years, the big Wall Street banks were divided about the speed and end of the Fed's rate hikes.
Aside from hints that rate hikes could begin in March, Powell did not provide any other specific guidance. In light of this, economists and investors have made their own judgments, and the difference in these judgments may mean future market ups and downs.
Previously, Wall Street basically agreed that there would be four 25 basis point hikes in 2022, and now most people expect to raise rates by 25 basis points starting in March, and Nomura Holdings even expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000.
There is also disagreement over when to announce the reduction of bonds, though many economists have advanced the forecast time for the reduction.
A report released over the weekend by goldman sachs economists highlighted the difficulty of forecasting.
"If market conditions change suddenly at some point, or if the economic slowdown even exceeds the deceleration implied by our consensus-based forecasts, then the FOMC could raise rates no more than 5 times." Economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote, "But if inflation is still high enough to make it a natural route for each meeting to continue hiking later this year, then it could also be more than 5 rate hikes in 2022." ”
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