Per reporter: Ke Yang Li Minghui Per editor: Wen Duo
Looking back at 2021, the smartphone market pattern was reconstructed, Huawei gradually faded out, and its market share was competed for by several other brands. Competition between these brands intensified, but overall sales fell short of expectations.
Daily Economic News, together with CINNO Research, a third-party data agency, continues to publish the "China Mobile Communication Industry Data Observation Report" (referred to as mobile communication industry observation) every month. The report continues to pay attention to the latest data of the three major operators, mobile phone brands and mobile phone supply chains, and tracks and understands the development trend of China's mobile phone communication industry chain for a long time. At the end of 2021, when the market is drastically changing, the "China Mobile Communication Industry Data Observation Report (2021)" is specially launched.
According to the data, in 2021, the mainland's telecom business revenue will reach 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year, achieving a high level of growth since 2014. In addition, the construction of 5G base stations in mainland China continues to advance. By the end of 2021, the mainland will build the world's largest 5G network, covering all prefecture-level cities and urban areas in the country, more than 98% of county-level urban areas and 80% of townships and towns.
Analysis of mobile phone and chip production and sales: the mobile phone market pattern has been reconstructed, and the competition in domestic mobile phones has intensified
According to CINNO Research's monthly domestic mobile phone sales monitoring data, the sales of smartphones in the Chinese market in 2021 will be about 314 million units, up 3% year-on-year.
In this regard, Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that although it is in the post-epidemic era, the domestic consumer market continues to recover, but the smart phone market in 2021 has not brought a relatively large year-on-year increase, and the market performance is less than expected.
In detail, the market performance in the first half of 2021 is also significantly different from previous years. CINNO Research research shows that the first half of the off-season is not weak, the cumulative sales contribution reached 51.5% of the year, more than 50%, while the second half of the peak season is not strong, only contributing to the annual sales volume of 48.5%.
Throughout the whole year of 2021, the top three manufacturers of mobile phone sales are OPPO, vivo, and Apple, and the total sales of the three companies account for 54.8% of the domestic smartphone market share. In this regard, Liu Yushi said that because the proportion of domestic low-end models is large, OPPO and vivo are ranked one or two.
In addition, Huawei has gradually faded out of the top five in China, and its overall share in the high, middle and low-end markets has fallen from 36% in 2020 to less than 10% in 2021. Liu Yushi said that the high-end flagship market that Huawei withdrew from was mainly obtained by Apple, forming a situation in which Apple was the only one in the high-priced machine, and part of the low-end market was re-obtained by the glory after independence, and the other part was divided by OPPO, vivo, and millet.
Looking forward to 2022, Liu Yushi said that with the popularization of vaccines, the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the continuous recovery of the terminal consumer market, the stabilization of the supply of driver chips, the accelerated penetration of 5G, the improvement of brand product value and competitiveness and other factors, it is predicted that in 2022, the sales of smart phones in the Chinese market are expected to reach about 340 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year. The low-end mobile phone market of 1,000 to 3,000 yuan is the main force contributing to domestic sales, and the proportion of sales has remained at 49% to 59% in the past five years. In the high-end market, in 2022, the folding screen products of domestic brands and the high-profile return of Samsung will also compete for market share, and it will be difficult for Apple to maintain the trend of sales first for a long time.
In terms of chips, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Apple ranked first, second and third in the annual sales list respectively, MediaTek increased by 42.5% year-on-year, with significant growth, and Qualcomm and Apple increased by 24.2% and 29.9% respectively. Huawei HiSilicon, which ranked fourth on the list, saw a 68.6% year-on-year decline in sales last year. Previously, CINNO Research had said that when Huawei HiSilicon was trapped, China's mobile phone chip market had evolved into a battle between MediaTek and Qualcomm.
In addition, Tsinghua Unigroup Zhanrui, which is regarded by the outside world as Huawei's HiSilicon baton takeover, sold 8.8 million chips in 2021, an increase of about 10,313% year-on-year, ranking fifth.
Capital market trend: the 100 billion club expanded, AND's market value is still leading
Wind data shows that there are 83 A-share mobile phone industry concept stocks. As of December 31, there were 14 listed companies with a market value of 100 billion, and Pengding Holdings entered the 100 billion club.
Among them, BYD (mobile phone parts, assembly and other products business revenue accounted for 47.46% of the company's revenue in the first half of 2021) has the highest market value, and its stock price rose by 38% last year, and as of the end of December last year, the total market value was 780.5 billion yuan. Luxshare Precision, Industrial Fulian (communications and mobile network equipment accounted for 58.97% of the main business revenue) and BOE A followed, and Goertek shares entered the top five.
In 2021, the overall stock price of A-share mobile phone industry concept stocks rose significantly, with 48 companies rising during the year.
Among the 83 concept stocks, Gongda Electroacoustic rose the most in the whole year last year, with a cumulative increase of 146%, and as of the end of last year, the total market value was 6.4 billion yuan. In addition, polyfluoride rose by about 125% for the whole of last year, and as of the end of last year, the total market value was 34.5 billion yuan. Meige Intelligent ranked third, up 116%, and as of the end of last year, the total market value was 7.9 billion yuan.
Among the top 15 companies with market capitalization, Tianci Materials, Goertek, Sanan Optoelectronics, BYD and Wentai Technology all rose by more than 30%, but Lansi Technology, BOE A, Pengding Holdings, Lixun Precision and Industrial Fulian performed poorly, falling by more than 10%.
In addition, the largest decline in the whole year of 2021 was the Aurora Borealis, at -66%.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, in 2021, due to the good performance in the first quarter, Xiaomi once exceeded 30 Hong Kong dollars per share in February at its peak, but after entering the third quarter, the stock price fell. In terms of U.S. stocks, Apple's stock price reached its highest point of $182.13 per share in the fourth quarter this year, up 35% overall.
Telecom revenue analysis: Telecom services achieve a high level of growth Cloud computing business revenue increased by more than 90%.
In 2021, the mainland's telecommunications business revenue will reach a total of 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year, achieving a high level of growth since 2014, with a growth rate of 4.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.
Among them, emerging services such as cloud computing and big data have achieved rapid growth, which has enhanced its role in pulling business. In 2021, the development of emerging services such as cloud computing and big data accelerated, achieving related business revenue of 222.5 billion yuan, an increase of 27.8% over the previous year, and accounting for 15.2% of telecommunications business revenue from 12.8% in the previous year. Among them, data center, cloud computing, and big data business increased by 18.4%, 91.5% and 35.5% respectively over the previous year.
Data and Internet businesses remain the main sources of revenue. In 2021, fixed data and Internet services achieved revenue of 260.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, accounting for 17.8% of telecommunications business revenue from 17.4% in the previous year; mobile data and Internet services achieved revenue of 640.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year.
The substitution effect of the Dialogue Voice business in Internet applications continued to appear, and the revenue of the voice business continued to decline, and the proportion continued to shrink. In 2021, the three basic telecom enterprises completed fixed voice and mobile voice service revenue of 22.4 billion yuan and 115.5 billion yuan, down 9% and 3% respectively from the previous year, accounting for 9.4% of the total telecommunications business revenue, accounting for 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous year.
Over the past year, information technology has accelerated the empowerment of traditional industries. There are more than 10,000 application innovation cases in the 5G industry, covering more than 20 national economic industries such as industry and medical care, and the application links penetrate from the production auxiliary links to the core links, and the typical application scenarios of "5G + industrial Internet" are gradually evolving to large-scale replication.
By the end of 2021, there will be 1.399 billion cellular IoT users in the mainland, rapidly approaching the scale of mobile phone users, and the gap between the two has narrowed rapidly from 458 million in 2020 to 244 million in 2021. IoT terminals are widely used in smart public utilities, intelligent manufacturing, smart transportation and other fields, and the IoT terminals deployed in these three key areas reach 314 million households, 254 million households and 218 million households respectively, and the proportion of end users is 22.4%, 18.1% and 15.6% respectively.
Telecom consumption analysis: China Telecom's 5G package user penetration rate exceeds 50% And the average monthly traffic per household has reached a new high
By the end of 2021, the number of mobile phone users in the mainland will be 1.643 billion, and the penetration rate will rise to 116.3 units/100 people, higher than the global 104.3 units/100 people. Among them, 4G and 5G users reached 1.069 billion and 355 million respectively, accounting for 86.7% of the total number of mobile phone users.
In terms of 5G packages, in 2021, China Mobile's 5G package users will have a cumulative net increase of 222 million households throughout the year, and the penetration rate will reach 40.42%. China Telecom's 5G subscribers increased by about 101 million households in the whole year, with a penetration rate of 50.54%. China Unicom Mobile's 5G package users have reached 155 million, and the penetration rate of 5G package users has reached 48.85%.
The construction of 5G base stations continues to advance. By the end of 2021, the mainland has built and opened a total of 1.425 million 5G base stations, built the world's largest 5G network, and achieved coverage of all prefecture-level cities and urban areas in the country, more than 98% of county urban areas and 80% of townships and towns, and gradually promoted to rural areas with conditions and needs. The total number of 5G base stations in the mainland accounts for more than 60% of the world; the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people reached 10.1, an increase of nearly 1 times over the end of the previous year. The annual 5G investment was 184.9 billion yuan, accounting for 45.6% of the investment in telecommunications fixed assets.
In terms of traffic, in 2021, mobile Internet traffic will grow rapidly, and the average monthly household traffic (DOU) will reach a new high. In 2021, mobile Internet access reached 221.6 billion GB, an increase of 33.9% over the previous year. The average monthly mobile Internet household traffic (DOU) reached 13.36GB/month, an increase of 29.2% over the previous year; the MONTHLY DOUBO in December reached 14.72GB/household, a record high. Among them, mobile Internet traffic reached 212.5 billion GB, an increase of 35.5% over the previous year, accounting for 95.9% of the total mobile Internet traffic.
Affected by the epidemic, users' dependence on mobile Internet applications such as online shopping and online office has deepened. In 2020 and 2021, the proportion of mobile Internet users in the mainland was 84.8% and 86.2% respectively, and the penetration rate increased by 2.3 and 1.4 percentage points respectively over the previous year, after the penetration rate from 2016 to 2019 was basically stable in the range of 80% to 82%.
Thanks to the improvement of mobile terminal functions and the continuous acceleration of the network, the large-traffic application scenarios such as short videos and network live broadcasts are more abundant, and the potential of mobile traffic consumption is further released. From the perspective of growth rate, under the base of the five-year average growth rate of mobile Internet traffic from 2016 to 2020 of 109%, a higher growth rate of 33.9% is still achieved; from the total point of view, mobile traffic consumption in 2021 is 23.6 times that of 2016.
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