Friday's blockbuster non-farm payrolls data was worse than Wall Street expected: only 175,000 new non-farm payrolls were added in April, the lowest in half a year and 65,000 fewer than expected, and the unemployment rate in April did not stabilize in March, but rose slightly to 3.9%. In addition to reflecting a cooling labor market, the report also sent signs of cooling inflation: average hourly earnings slowed more than expected in April, slowing year-on-year to 3.9% from 4.1% in March, the lowest pace in nearly three years, and 0.2% month-on-month.
The jobs report rekindled expectations of a Fed rate cut and renewed hopes of a rate cut in the third quarter. After the report, traders increased their bets on a rate cut in September, with the expected rate cuts to start as soon as possible from November to September before the report, and swap contract pricing reflected that traders expected a rate cut this year to pick up to about 50 basis points from about 41 basis points before the report. After Powell denied a possible next rate hike on Wednesday, jobs data boosted rate cut expectations, and by Friday, the number of Fed rate cuts expected by the Fed had picked up two full times this year.
After the release of the jobs report, U.S. Treasury prices jumped and yields plunged more than 10 basis points intraday, giving up all the gains since the release of the March U.S. CPI in April, falling for three consecutive days, and the yield on interest-rate sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by more than 20 basis points in three days, the largest three-day decline since January; However, bond yields did not fall further after the U.S. stock market opened, and the yield decline narrowed. Traders digest the report data and there have been recent signs that some are betting bearish on Treasuries and they may not be ready to give up, the commentary said.
After the jobs report, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April, released in early trading, also fell below expectations, falling below the watershed of 50 and entering contraction territory, falling to a four-year low. After the release of the data, the two-year Treasury yield was close to the low level in more than three weeks since the jobs report. U.S. stocks that opened higher maintained their gains, with major U.S. stock indexes rising at least more than 1%, and S&P recording its biggest daily gain since Nvidia's stunning quarterly report more than two months ago, and with the help of Friday's rally, it was able to turn around for the week.
Leading stocks with positive earnings reports supported the broader market on Friday: Apple announced that last quarter's revenue decline in Greater China slowed down more than expected, and it is expected that total revenue will return to growth this quarter, and will launch the largest buyback in history of $110 billion, increase dividends by 4%, and the stock price rose more than 8% at one point, and finally hit the largest daily increase in nearly a year and a half; While Amgen's injectable weight loss drug AMG 133 entered the phase III trial, and the small molecule weight loss drug AMG 786 completed the phase I clinical trial, Eli Lilly and Denmark-listed Novo Nordisk were hit, and their stock prices fell more than 3% and 5% respectively in intraday trading.
In the foreign exchange market, after the employment report, the decline of the dollar index expanded rapidly, erasing all the gains since the announcement of the March US CPI faster than expected growth last month, falling to a low level in more than three weeks The offshore yuan, which rose more than 400 points on Thursday, rose above 7.17 intraday for the first time since late January, and bitcoin also jumped intraday, briefly rising above $62,000, up more than $3,000 from its daily low, away from a two-month low of $57,000 on Wednesday.
Among the commodities, the dollar weakened, London industrial metals rose, but this week some metals failed to maintain the rally, on Friday London copper reversed the three-day losing momentum, still more than a month for the first time in a single week of falling; There are comments that the recent upside in gold prices is limited, and despite the disappointing employment data, the Fed is still in no hurry to cut interest rates, and inflation is still too high for the Fed to reassure it will cut rates at its next meeting.
After the U.S. jobs report, international crude oil rose in the short term, refreshed the daily high, and then soon continued to fall and turned to the lowest level since early March, U.S. oil continued to close down this week, and Brent oil both recorded the worst weekly performance since early February, reflecting the easing of the risk of conflict in the Middle East at the time of negotiations on the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the risk of supply disruption has decreased, and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories has far exceeded expectations, and poor economic data has exacerbated demand-side concerns.
The three major U.S. stock indexes rose at least more than 1% Apple recorded the biggest increase in 17 months The chip stock index rebounded for two days and still fell throughout the week The energy sector fell more than 3% in a week The Chinese concept stock index rose three times in a row
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher for two consecutive days, and generally maintained an intraday increase of at least 1%. The Nasdaq Composite rose about 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 580 points, or more than 1.5%, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 1.5%. At midday, the Dow and the S&P basically rose more than 1%, and the Nasdaq rose slightly more than 2%, and finally closed up collectively for two consecutive days, and the Dow rose for three consecutive days.
The S&P closed up 1.26%, its biggest daily gain since Nvidia's earnings report on Feb. 22, at 5,127.79 points, the highest since April 11. The Nasdaq closed up 1.99%, approaching the biggest gain since Feb. 22 set by Friday's 2.03% rise at 16,156.33 points, refreshing the closing high since April 12. The Dow closed up 450.02 points, or 1.18%, the biggest daily gain since March 27 at 38,675.68 points, a new high since April 9.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 1.99%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed up 2.48%, both set to rise for two consecutive days to their highest level since April 12. The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed up 0.97%, rising for three consecutive days and updating its highs since April 11 for two days.
Major U.S. stock indexes all rose this week, but the S&P and Nasdaq, which posted their biggest gains since November last week, moderated significantly. The S&P, which rose 2.67% last week, rose 0.55%, the Nasdaq, which rose 4.23% last week, rose 1.43%, the Nasdaq 100, which rose about 4% last week, rose 0.97%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1.68%, all rising for two consecutive weeks. The Dow rose 1.14% for three consecutive weeks.
Among the Dow constituents, by the close, Amgen (AMGN), which led the gains, rose more than 11.8% in the first trading day after the earnings report, and also led the gains among the S&P 500 constituents, Apple rose second, McDonald's fell nearly 1.1%, the worst performer, and the only energy stock Chevron fell 0.3%.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, energy closed down less than 0.1% on Friday, while Apple's IT, which is located, closed up 3%, far ahead of the other sectors, and communication services and materials, which were the second largest gainers, rose only 1%. Only three sectors fell this week, with energy down nearly 3.4%, financials down more than 0.6%, communication services down nearly 0.6%, utilities up more than 3% leading the gains, consumer discretionary up 1.6%, housing and IT up about 1.5%, and materials on Friday roughly unchanged from levels a week ago.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the technology giants "Seven Sisters" have risen together in intraday trading, Apple has performed the best, Alphabet and Tesla have turned down intraday, and the gains are relatively weakest.
Tesla rose 2.6% in early trading, turned down in early and midday, closed up nearly 0.7%, and rose for two consecutive days, failing to get close to Monday's closing high since March 1, as it rose 15% on Monday, and rose nearly 7.7% this week, not as much as last week, which rebounded more than 14%.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Apple rose about 8.1% in early trading after the announcement of the earnings report and closed up about 6%, the largest closing gain since November 30, 2022, rising for two consecutive days to the highest closing level since February 22, Microsoft, Meta closed up 2.2%, Meta closed up 2.3%, both rising for three consecutive days to the highest level since April 24, Amazon closed up 0.8%, rising for three consecutive days after the announcement of the earnings report, refreshing the closing high since April 11, and Alphabet turned down at the beginning of the session, falling nearly 2.1% in early trading , which closed up 0.3% after turning higher at midday, rose for three consecutive days, but still failed to approach the closing record high set by last Friday's rally, while Netflix closed up 2.5%, rising for three consecutive days to its highest level since April 18.
Among the six technology stocks, only Alphabet, which fell 1.7% this week, fell 8.3%, Amazon rose about 3.7%, Netflix rose about 3.2%, Meta rose nearly 2%, and Microsoft rose less than 0.1%.
Chip stocks continued to rise overall, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closing up 2.4% and nearly 2.3% respectively, rising for two consecutive days, but still failed to erase the week's decline, falling 0.4% and 0.3% respectively for the week. Among chip stocks, Nvidia closed up nearly 3.5%, rising for two consecutive days to a high since April 11, up about 1.2% this week, far less than last week's 15% rebound; AMD closed up 3%, because it fell 9% on Wednesday after the announcement of its earnings report, and it still fell 4.3% this week; at the close, TSMC U.S. stocks rose 3.9%, Arm rose 3.8%, Broadcom rose 3.2%, Micron Technology rose 2.1%, Intel rose 1.3%, and Qualcomm, which rose nearly 10% on Wednesday after the announcement of the earnings report, turned down in early trading and closed down nearly 0.3%.
AI概念股大多继续上涨。 收盘时，C3.ai（AI）涨3.8%，Palantir（PLTR）涨约3.5%， 超微电脑（SMCI）涨近2.7%，Adobe（ADBE）涨2%，甲骨文（ORCL）涨0.7%，SoundHound.ai（SOUN）涨0.2%，而一季度营收超预期剧减21%、每股亏损远超预期的BigBear.ai（BBAI）收跌13.9%，被称为“小英伟达”、出售数据中心互连芯片的Astera Labs（ALAB）跌近2.7%。
Popular Chinese concept stocks continued to rise overall, but the rally was moderated from Thursday. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which rose 6% on Thursday, closed up 1.7%, rising for three consecutive days, refreshing its closing high since October 2023, and rising 5.5% for the week after surging nearly 9% last week. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up nearly 1.7% and 0.4%, respectively. At the close, Xpeng Motors fell about 3.6%, Li Auto fell about 3.4%, NIO fell nearly 0.5%, and Xiaomi Fan rose nearly 0.9. Among other stocks, by the close, NetEase rose more than 4%, Yum China rose 2.8%, Pinduoduo rose nearly 2%, Alibaba, Baidu rose more than 1%, Station B rose nearly 0.8%, JD.com rose 0.7%, while Canaan Technology fell more than 4%, and Tencent Fan Single fell slightly.
The bank stock index rose for three consecutive days. The overall banking index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed up 0.8%, the highest since April 24, up 0.5% this week, the regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up about 1%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed up 1.3%, both refreshing their highs since March 28, and rising about 2.5% and 3% respectively this week.
Among the stocks that reported their earnings reports, cloud service provider Cloudflare (NET), which had higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue but weak full-year guidance, closed down 16.4%, online travel giant Expedia (EXPE) closed down nearly 15.3% after lowering its full-year growth guidance to mid-to-high-single-digit growth, healthcare provider DaVita (DVA) closed down 5.5% after its first-quarter results were better than expected and raised its earnings guidance slightly. Crypto exchange No. 1 Coinbase (COIN) closed down nearly 2.5% after Bitcoin ETFs drove its institutional services trading volume to record highs, while payment service provider Block (SQ), which had higher-than-expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter, closed down nearly 1.2%.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), the entertainment company that produces promotional concerts, closed up 7.2% after reporting higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue, management expects strong demand for stadiums next year and concerts to continue to grow, while online travel services giant Booking Holdings (BKNG), which has a higher-than-expected performance for the next quarter during the Easter holiday cycle, closed up 3%.
Among the more volatile stocks, cloud networking company Arista Networks (ANET) rose more than 5% intraday to close up 4.8% after Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy and expected it to be a big AI beneficiary, Eli Lilly (LLY) fell about 3.4% intraday and closed down about 2.8% due to Amgen's weight loss drug research and development progress, and Paramount Global (PARA), which rose Thursday It closed up more than 13% on Thursday after media said on Thursday that private Apollo and Sony jointly issued a $26 billion takeover offer.
European technology stocks followed US stocks, leading to a rebound in pan-European stock indexes. The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose nearly 0.5%, not continuing to fall from its closing high since April 8, which was updated on Tuesday. Stock indices in major European countries mostly closed in the red. British stocks rose for two consecutive days, hitting a record closing high for two consecutive days and the third day of this week, German stocks and French stocks rebounded after falling for three consecutive days, while Italian stocks fell for three consecutive days, and Western stocks stopped falling for two consecutive days on Thursday.
Among the sectors, the technology sector closed up more than 1.7%, interest-rate sensitive properties rose nearly 1.2%, while the banking sector closed down nearly 0.5%, and among the constituents, France's largest bank, Société Générale, plunged about 5.2%, while France's second-largest bank, Crédit Agricole, which saw its first-quarter net profit soar by 55%, rose 1.1%, and the healthcare sector fell 0.45% After Amgen announced the progress of weight loss drug research and development, Novo Nordisk, the Europe's most valuable pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, fell 5.3% intraday and closed down about 2.6%.
The STOXX 600 index fell less than 0.5% this week, retreating after ending a four-week losing streak last week. Most of the stock indexes of various countries have fallen, the German stocks that rebounded last week have fallen, and the fourth week of the last five weeks has fallen, the French and Italian Spanish stocks have fallen back after rising for two consecutive weeks, while the British stocks have risen for two consecutive weeks after falling for three consecutive weeks.
Among the sectors, real estate rose about 4% this week, reflecting the impact of European bond yields following the decline in U.S. bonds, while automobiles fell more than 3%, retail fell nearly 3%, and oil and gas, which was hit by the decline in crude oil, fell more than 2%, despite Friday's gains, technology still fell nearly 1.6%, the medical sector fell nearly 0.7%, and Novo Nordisk fell nearly 4.1% this week.
U.S. Treasury yields plunged more than 10 basis points after the jobs report, and the two-year yield hit its biggest three-day drop since January
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond quickly fell below 4.50% after the U.S. jobs report, falling more than 13 basis points in the day, refreshing the lowest level since April 10, and at about 4.51% at the end of the bond market, falling about 7 basis points in the day, and the yield on other maturities fell for three consecutive days. The 10-year yield fell by about 15 basis points this week, retreating after four consecutive weeks of gains, falling for the first time in a single week since late March.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, quickly fell below 4.80% after the jobs report, briefly falling below 4.71%, the lowest level since April 10, falling more than 16 basis points on the day and about 4.82% by the end of the bond market, down about 5 basis points on the day. After a largely cumulative absence of gains last week, the two-year yield has fallen by about 17 basis points this week, falling for the first time in the last six weeks. From Wednesday to Friday, it fell by more than 20 basis points in three days, the largest three-day decline since January this year.
After non-farm payrolls, the dollar index hit a new low in more than three weeks, the yen rebounded by more than 1%, and the offshore yuan rose above 7.17, a new high in more than two months
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, was close to 105.40 in early Asian trading, up less than 0.1% in the day, and basically maintained a downward trend after soon turning down, European stocks turned up in the short term before the market, and after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, it quickly fell below 105.00, and the intraday decline expanded rapidly, and the U.S. stock market was close to 104.50 before the market, refreshing the low since the day of the U.S. March CPI announced on April 10, falling more than 0.7% in the day (Thursday's close at 105.299), after narrowing some of the losses.
By the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday, the U.S. dollar index hovered at the 105.00 line, down nearly 0.3% during the day, and fell nearly 0.9% this week; the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against ten other currencies, fell nearly 0.3% during the day, refreshing the low level since April 11 for two consecutive days, and fell nearly 1% this week, and the U.S. employment report fell nearly 0.8% in the day, and the U.S. dollar index fell for three consecutive days and two consecutive weeks.
Among non-U.S. currencies, the yen jumped intraday, and after the release of the U.S. jobs report, the dollar fell below 151.90 against the yen, falling below 152.00 intraday for the first time since April 10, down nearly 1.3% from the daily high of nearly 153.80 at the beginning of the Asian market, down nearly 1.2% during the day, and slightly above 153.00 at the end of the bond market, down nearly 0.4% during the day; After the release of the U.S. jobs report, the euro quickly rose above 1.0810 against the dollar, and the pound rose above 1.2630 against the dollar, both refreshed their highs since April 10, up about 0.8% during the day, and then gave up more than half of the gains, and the euro closed above 1.0760, up nearly 0.4% during the day, and the pound hovered at 1.2550, up less than 0.2% during the day.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose to 7.2058 against the dollar in early Asian trading, and then quickly turned higher, and rose to 7.1653 after the U.S. jobs report, updating the highest level since January 25, up 410 points in the day. At 4:59 on May 4, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.1928 yuan against the US dollar, up 135 points from the end of New York on Thursday, rising for three consecutive days and the fourth day of this week, up 759 points this week after falling back last week, and rising for the fourth week in the last six weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) quickly regained $60,000 after the release of the U.S. jobs report, after the U.S. stock rose above $62,100 in early trading, some platforms tested $62,300, refreshing the high since April 30, compared with the intraday low below $58,800 in early Asian trading, up more than $3,000, up about 6%, away from the low since the end of February after falling below $56,800 on Wednesday, the U.S. stock market closed hovering at $62,000, up more than 4% in the last 24 hours, and down more than 3% in the last seven days.
Crude oil hit a new low in more than seven weeks and the biggest weekly drop in three months, and U.S. oil fell nearly 7% for the fifth consecutive week.
After the release of the U.S. jobs report, international crude oil futures rose short-term to refresh daily highs, U.S. WTI crude oil rose above $79.60, up nearly 0.9% during the day, Brent crude oil approached $84.40, up nearly 0.9%, before the U.S. stock market opened down, and then continued to decline, when the U.S. stock market refreshed the daily low at midday, U.S. oil fell to $78, down 1.2% during the day, and cloth oil was close to $82.80, down about 1% during the day.
In the end, crude oil fell together, hitting new lows in more than seven weeks. WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $0.84, or 1.06%, at $78.11 a barrel, falling for five consecutive days and updating their lowest level since March 12 for three consecutive days, while Brent crude oil futures for July delivery, which ended a three-day losing streak, closed down $0.71, or about 0.85%, at $82.96 a barrel, breaking the low set on Wednesday since March 12.
This week, U.S. oil fell nearly 6.9%, cloth oil fell about 6%, the largest weekly decline since the week of February 2, fell after the end of last week's two-week losing streak, the 17th week in 30 weeks since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and after rising more than 10% in the first quarter, the third week in five weeks so far in the second quarter.
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures were mixed. NYMEX June gasoline futures, which rebounded on Thursday, closed down about 1.6% at $2.5551 a gallon, refreshing Wednesday's lowest closing level since March 8 and down about 6.9% this week after rebounding last week. NYMEX June natural gas futures closed up nearly 5.26% at $2.142/MMBtu, up for two consecutive days to refresh their highest level since January 26, and rose about 11.4% this week before rebounding after falling for three consecutive weeks.
London tin rose more than 3% and still fell for two consecutive weeks, London copper rebounded but ended a four-week streak of gold jobs after the report rose after a drop of nearly 2%
Base metals futures in London rose on Friday. Lunxi and London nickel both rose more than 3%, London continued to walk out of the three-week low set by Tuesday and Wednesday, and London nickel bid farewell to the two-week low set by two consecutive declines. London copper, which has fallen for three days, rose nearly 1.5% to regain $9,900 after closing below $9,800 for the first time in a week on Thursday, but failed to get close to a two-year closing high set by Monday's break above $10,000. The two-game losing streak rebounded slightly, and the flat London lead on Thursday also rose more than 1%, starting to approach the high set on Monday since November last year. London zinc rose twice in a row, continuing to approach the highest level since March last year set on Monday.
Base metals were mixed this week. Last week, the outstanding London copper fell nearly 0.6%, falling back after rising for four consecutive weeks, London tin fell more than 1%, London aluminum fell 0.7%, both fell for two consecutive weeks, and last week's end of three consecutive weeks of London zinc rose more than 2%, London nickel rose about 0.7%, London lead rose about 0.3%, and also rebounded after falling back last week.
After the U.S. jobs report, gold rose instantly, New York gold futures rose to $2330.7, up about 0.9% during the day, spot gold rose above $2320.50, up more than 0.7% during the day, and then quickly turned down, when the U.S. stock market refreshed the low level on April 5 at the beginning of the session, gold futures fell to $2285.2, down nearly 1.1% during the day, down nearly 2% from the daily high, spot gold fell to $2277.6, down more than 1.1% during the day, down more than 1.8% from the daily high, and then gradually erased most of the decline.
COMEX gold futures for June delivery closed down 0.04% at $2,308.6 an ounce, less than $6 from Tuesday's closing low since April 2, down 1.64% for the week.
At the close of U.S. stocks, spot gold was just above $2,300, down about 0.1% on the day. Due to a drop of nearly 2% on Tuesday, spot gold fell by more than 1.6% this week, and gold futures fell for two consecutive weeks.
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