On Thursday (the early morning of January 28, Beijing time), Tesla, the champion of US stock turnover, plunged 11.6% to trade $41.4 billion. The company's reported revenue and EPS exceeded expectations, but warned that supply chain restrictions would run through the year and said it would not launch new models this year.
It shows that the decline in Tesla's stock price is mainly caused by external macro factors. Recently, not only Tesla has fallen, but the entire technology stock has been pulling back sharply. The main reason is that the monetary policy environment in the United States has shifted from easing in the past to hawkish tightening. The just-concluded Fed monetary meeting sent a signal of more hawkishness. There is a high probability of interest rate hikes in March, 4 interest rate hikes this year or no suspense, and the end of the bond purchase plan in March can be described as a knife and knife, and the knife draws blood. In a word, monetary policy tightening is to recover market liquidity, and technology companies are the most dependent on financing and the most hurt.
The Fed's tightening of monetary expectations led to a maximum rise in the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note to 1.9% (just 1.5% at the beginning of the month). As a result, the financing cost of technology stocks has increased significantly, which has put the most pressure on technology stocks. Tesla is certainly not immune.
From the perspective of Tesla's internal factors, Tesla released a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report. But Tesla warned that the company would also be subject to supply chain shortages that have led to lower sales from other automakers. With supply chains becoming the main limiting factory, Tesla's own factory has been running below capacity for several consecutive quarters, which could continue into 2022. Including labor shortages, limited supply of materials and parts has limited the continued growth of the business. Musk said that new models will not be produced in 2022 due to chip shortages.
Chip shortages are a global problem, especially in the United States. Chip shortages affect a lot of industries, which directly affect three major industries: the automotive industry, the smartphone industry, and medical device manufacturing companies. The United States is known as the country on wheels, which is enough to see how important the automobile industry is to the United States. After the traditional GM, Ford and Chrysler were competed by Japan and Europe, Musk's Tesla electric car actually appeared on the scene, pulling the United States back to the leader of new energy vehicles. If the chip shortage continues, it will pose a big threat to Tesla's electric vehicle production capacity. Musk expressed extreme concern last year.
The shortage of chips is difficult to alleviate, and the US government is more anxious than anyone. Recently, the US Congress and the government have realized the significant impact of chip shortage on the US technology economy, and are currently eliminating all difficulties to solve the chip shortage problem. On Wednesday (January 26), local time, the U.S. House of Representatives announced the America COMPETES Act of 2022, which is 2912 pages. The bill is also known as the "chip act" because it includes $52 billion in chip investment, pointing directly to China. In a statement released by the White House, Biden said that the U.S. Competition Act will help the manufacturing industry return and resolve supply chain bottlenecks in the semiconductor industry. Shortly after the bill's release, Biden also boasted that it would strengthen U.S. supply chains and reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing to give the U.S. a better hand over China and the rest of the world in the coming decades.
These factors may be temporary, after the entire economy recovers, after the supply chain problem is solved, Tesla's stock price is higher without suspense. At the same time, after the Fed's interest rate hike boots landed, the bearish have almost digested during the expected waiting process. The impact on technology stocks is also phased.