Polar Daily Original
Author | Yang Chengchun
Edit | Luan Crane
At the beginning of 2022, CATL announced its high-profile entry into the power exchange market and released the power exchange brand EVOGO. CATL said that the power exchange service provided by the brand will be adaptable to 80% of the electric vehicle platform.
In stark contrast to the ambitions of the Cataline Era, the day after its press conference on the afternoon of January 18, the stock price slipped in response, and the following week the stock price also fell in an overall state. Does this mean that the market does not buy into the new layout of the Ningde era?
Data source /wind financial terminal
Qiu Chen, a senior researcher in the field of ESG and vice president of China Light Power Investment Asset Management Co., Ltd., told Jipai Daily that to answer this question, we must first see what is the main business of the Ningde era? As an energy storage giant, the market expects it to be more in the main business. The ultimate purpose of the CATL era is to expand the demand for energy storage by unifying the battery warehouse configuration of more electric vehicles and further enhance the market share of its batteries.
Whether the goal can be achieved is still too early to discuss, after all, the "chocolate battery" proposed by the Ningde era power exchange service is still in the conceptual stage and has not been put into mass production.
However, the ambition of "Ning Wang" to rely on this move to "unify the world" has indeed attracted many micro-words from downstream car companies - if everything is based on the battery design of the Ningde era as a standard, then the autonomy of car companies to build cars will be emptied. This may be one of the main reasons for the poor response of the new product market in the Ningde era.
So the power exchange mode itself, is it worth entering? Will it be really fragrant?
01
Swap mode doesn't solve "mileage anxiety"
Every small long holiday, the news that electric vehicles are blocked on the highway and queued up for charging will brush the screen, and the mileage anxiety is also real, can the power exchange mode be solved?
Qiu Chen believes that for family passenger cars, there is no intermediate state of mileage anxiety: in the case of full power, as long as it is urban traffic, regardless of road conditions and urban scale conditions, the vehicle is sufficient for battery life; when traveling long distance, the station station is scattered, and it is easy to mismatch the battery and the model. Therefore, family cars are usually not in demand, and they cannot be counted on when there is demand.
The fundamental reason is that compared with fuel vehicles, the number of power supplementation facilities for electric vehicles is too small, and the density of charging and refueling facilities is not enough to meet the demand, which has little to do with whether it is a charging station or a replacement power station. "First of all, we must solve the problem of eating enough to eat, and then consider whether to eat Chinese food or eat Western food," Qiu Chen said.
The power exchange mode is also a challenge to the psychology of the car owner. After the separation of the tram, whether the battery can meet the needs of use, whether it can ensure safe use, whether there are actual differences in battery performance between different operators, and whether the battery has had an accident bump, the owner has no way of knowing.
Although the power exchange model launched by Weilai has won the support of many car owners and fans, but this is more out of everyone's encouragement of domestic electric vehicles and support for corporate innovation, the market is rational and fiercely competitive in the final analysis, and it is not far to rely on "power generation with love".
02
For operational vehicles, the demand for power exchange is clear
"The real demand for power exchange is common in operational vehicles, including buses, taxis, online ride-hailing cars, trucks, urban service vehicles that last more than half a day a day, as well as industrial vehicles," Qiu Chen showed Jipai Daily where the market for power exchange is.
For buses, taxis, online ride-hailing, and urban logistics trucks, the power exchange mode is an effective way to reduce operating costs. The operation vehicle has a long time on the road, the charging demand is strong, the time occupied by charging is directly linked to the operating income, and the number and frequency of vehicle charging can cover the high cost of the early investment in the replacement power station, which is the main force in the power exchange market.
It is understood that in addition to the Ningde era that has just entered, and Weilai Automobile, which attracts high-end car owners, BAIC and Geely, as the two pioneers of the power exchange model, have set their sights on taxis and online ride-hailing cars. At the end of 2020, didi, a giant ride-hailing giant, and BYD jointly launched its first customized electric vehicle, the D1, becoming the world's first electric vehicle specifically designed for online ride-hailing.
The industrial scene is an area in which domestic and foreign power exchange companies are focusing on. On January 21, the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure".
In the "Opinions", it is clearly mentioned that it is necessary to promote the formation of a unified power exchange standard in the main application areas and improve the safety, reliability and economy of the power exchange mode. Accelerate the promotion and application of the power exchange mode, support the construction and layout of special power stations around mining farms, ports, urban transfer and other scenarios, accelerate the exploration and promotion of the separation mode of vehicle and electricity, and promote the electrification transformation of heavy trucks and internal port collection cards. Explore shared power exchange models in the fields of leasing, logistics and transportation, and optimize and improve shared power exchange services.
03
800V high voltage fast charging, or the future direction
Qiu Chen said that in the past five years, electric vehicles on the market have generally used electrical platform systems below 400 V voltage, and it takes at least 45 minutes for the battery to be charged from 30% to 80%. When the power volt is increased to 800V high voltage, it takes only ten minutes to charge the same power, which can basically be on an equal footing with the energy replenishment speed of the fuel vehicle.
Qiu Chen analysis, high-voltage fast charging is currently facing a series of problems including battery life, prevention of thermal runaway and power infrastructure load, etc., major scientific research institutions and related car companies are overcoming these problems, which involves the improvement of BMS (battery management system) management capabilities, the use of SiC materials instead, the increase of high-voltage connectors, the development of the next generation of high-voltage level supporting components and other combination of means, and constantly accelerate the development and progress of high-voltage fast charging.
It is understood that starting this year, high-voltage models with 800V voltage will be expected to blossom in China. For example, BYD announced that its e-platform version 3.0 will support 800V flash charging; Xiaopeng released an 800V high-voltage silicon carbide platform; GAC AionY launched a super fast charging that will achieve 80% charging in 8 minutes with a voltage of more than 800V; and Great Wall subsidiary Hive released an 800V super fast charging battery system. At the same time, Huawei announced that it will build the industry's first full-stack high-voltage platform solution.
Multi-pronged vehicle end, pile end and battery end, 800V high voltage fast charging is just around the corner.
At the same time, the state also strongly encourages the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The "Opinions" released on January 21 proposed that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the mainland charging infrastructure system can meet the charging needs of more than 20 million electric vehicles. The "Opinions" require new residential communities to ensure that 100% of fixed parking spaces are built with charging facilities or reserved installation conditions. Accelerate the completion of the shortcomings of charging infrastructure construction in counties and townships, and accelerate the realization of "full county coverage" of electric vehicle charging stations and "full coverage of townships and townships" of charging piles.
Under the joint action of policy guidance and enterprise layout, in the next 3-5 years, the mainland will form a huge and complete electric vehicle charging system - the number of charging stations is becoming more and more abundant, the charging speed is increasingly improved, and finally the 800V high-voltage fast charging territory that penetrates into all prefecture-level cities in the country will be constructed.
04
It should be charged, and it should be changed
Charging and power exchange, in the actual market, each has a very clear application scenario, but also have a broad space for technological innovation. "In a word, it is appropriate to charge and replace," Qiu Chen believes.
In terms of construction cost and cycle, the charging station has obvious advantages compared with the replacement power station, and the charging station is sufficient as an electrical support in terms of removing the daily use of household vehicles for operation vehicles. In the case of charging stations and charging speeds are effectively solved, and with the addition of power exchange as a supplement, charging problems will no longer be an anxiety point for electric vehicles.
On the basis of the further improvement of charging and energy supplementary infrastructure, the orderly use of electricity in the high-voltage DC fast charging scenario, to avoid the concentration of the same period of time, artificially creating electricity shortages, is a problem to be solved in the future period, and the price leverage may be more effective.
Qiu Chen told Jipai Daily that the reason why it insists on replacing electricity is more suitable as a supplement, rather than a mainstream charging method, is not only in the market space mentioned above, but also related to the benign development of the new energy automobile industry as a whole.
He stressed, "Once the power exchange becomes the mainstream, it means that the battery standard should be as unified as possible, which is not a good thing for downstream car companies to innovate." For the sake of power exchange matching considerations, electric vehicles should 'accommodate' battery design, and the autonomy and innovation space of vehicle design will be greatly weakened, becoming a constraint on the development of new energy vehicles. ”
This is like the eight shares of the imperial examination, which standardizes the format of the article clearly, which directly leads to the uniformity and lackluster of the academic system. Battery "eight shares", it is true that it can improve efficiency - let consumers, car factories, battery factories of the battery resources really efficient operation, but the mainland new energy vehicles as a whole still have room for development and challenges to a higher level, the pace of battery standardization is too large, easy to lead to the imbalance of electric vehicles and battery development balances.
"If a technology hinders the birth or advancement of a new technology, it is not a good technology," Qiu Chen said.
Just like mobile phones also had a history of being able to change batteries, but with the popularity of mobile phone fast charging, it withdrew from the stage. The replacement of electricity is re-emerged with a new image, that is, the charging treasure. The power exchange mode of electric vehicles is the "charging treasure" of electric vehicles and is an important supplement to charging.
Qiu Chen believes that the future of electric vehicles, or will be like the current mobile phones, is more consumer electronics. Although the anxiety of running out of electricity will still exist, in an environment full of "chargers" and "charging treasures", it will no longer be a bottleneck in the industry.
Make full use of the research advantages and industrial scale achieved by the mainland in the field of new energy vehicles, transform China's product experience, market experience and industrial layout involved in the whole life cycle into a standard consensus that can be used for reference around the world, take "global problems, Chinese standards, shared answers and achievements" as another "going out" solution, serve the sustainable development and carbon neutral cause of all mankind, and implement the ESG concept in every high-growth industry that practices corporate social responsibility, affecting the environment, Promoting the development of society and governance will be the vision and expectation of the next 30 years.
*Captions and illustrations are from Visual China.
*Disclaimer: In no event shall the information herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute investment advice to any person.