Global electric vehicle penetration continues to grow, particularly in Europe. As laws that eventually replace the sale of chemical-fueled vehicles, automakers are turning to electric vehicles across the board, and European countries are moving towards full acceptance of zero-emission vehicles. A new study used historical data to predict the registration of new electric vehicles in European countries in 2035.
The study, conducted by Confused.com, aims to predict how much the share of eviction vehicle registrations in a European country as a percentage of total vehicles will grow by 2035. Here are their predictions for the future of electric vehicles in Europe.
Confused.com website uses publicly available data from the European Environment Agency (EEA) to collect new car registrations in 30 EU countries between 2010 and 2020. Data for Norway for 2013-2019 come from Eurostat. The particular study did not include the UK because it is no longer a member of the European Union.
The study then took the data and used a technique called "polynomial regression" to analyze historical and observational data to drive strategic decisions in the future. Calculate the proportion of newly registered electric vehicles to total vehicles from 2010 to 2020 and use polynomial regression models for 15-year forecasts. Here are the results:
As the chart above shows, from a forecast perspective, the Netherlands and Norway are leading the way in the field of electric vehicles in European countries. In this study, we ranked the Netherlands first, although Norway also reached a 99.9% eviction forecast percentage by 2035.
This is based on the overall percentage of the Netherlands that grew by almost 77% between 2020 and 2035. That being said, Norway is currently undoubtedly the leader in electric vehicles in Europe, as more than 54% of newly registered cars in 2020 will be electric.
Sweden and Denmark occupy third and fourth places, respectively, and the countries of Scandinavia seem to be better suited to embracing electric vehicles than many other European countries. Portugal ranks in the top five.
While the study predicts that eviction registrations in the top 15 European countries will increase by at least 25% by 2035, it would be ideal if the proportion of EV registrations increases when real data arrives. It is expected that by 2035, only the top 6 of the 30 European countries will account for more than 50% of all new vehicle registrations.