Spotlight on | Can Aomi Kerong "end" the COVID-19 pandemic?

Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Statistical Evaluation at the University of Washington, recently published a review online in the British Lancet magazine predicting that the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic will end. But a day earlier, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned at a regular news conference that the COVID-19 pandemic was far from over and that new mutated strains could emerge.

Whether the raging Omiljung strain can become a mutant strain that "ends" the COVID-19 pandemic remains controversial. A number of authoritative experts in the field of epidemiology and public health stressed that only by global cohesion and working together to cross the immunization gap will mankind get out of the haze of the epidemic as soon as possible.

Will Omikeron be the last poison?

At present, the Omiljung strain has become the main epidemic strain in many countries and regions around the world. Due to the high contagiousness and low pathogenicity of Omikeron, some researchers speculate that this may herald the "beginning" of the epidemic. However, some experts pointed out that new mutated strains may appear around the world at any time, and there is still uncertainty about the development trend of the epidemic, so it is more necessary to coordinate globally and closely monitor.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, pointed out at the 2022 World Economic Forum video conference held recently that because new mutant strains may appear at any time and future variables are still very large, whether Ormikeron can become a strain that "ends" the pandemic is still an "open question".

Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Alliance for Innovation in Epidemic Preparedness, warned in an interview with Xinhua News Agency a few days ago that as long as the virus transmission rate is high and there are unprotected groups, an environment where the virus may mutate will be created. This is exactly what happened to the Omiljung strain. Hatchet believes that viruses are constantly evolving and that unpredictable viruses have the potential to cause a pandemic at any time.

Annelis Wilder-Smith, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, pointed out that the Amicoreon strain must not be the last mutant strain, and as the virus spreads at a high speed, it is likely that there will be new strains that "need attention" again. She said:

"The best-case scenario is that the pathogenicity of the virus is further diminished, but the world needs to prepare for the worst."

Katrina Pollock, head of the new crown vaccine program at Imperial College London, said in a recent interview with Xinhua News Agency that it is too early to talk about the next strain, but global monitoring and global cooperation on the mutation of the new crown virus is needed.

Will the COVID-19 pandemic become an "endemic disease"?

Whether the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve into a "endemic disease" is also a hot topic of discussion among experts. A pandemic is defined as the spread of diseases to multiple countries or continents and infects large numbers of people, while endemic diseases refer to a class of diseases with regional pathogenesis characteristics.

David Hayman, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, believes that COVID-19 is becoming a "endemic disease" and will continue to circulate for some time – just like other coronaviruses, "four coronaviruses have developed into 'endemic'".

Hutchett believes that influenza is an "endemic disease" and that influenza viruses evolve over time and cause epidemics every year. In the long run, the new crown virus will behave more like a flu virus, it will continue to spread, it will continue to evolve.

Fauci believes that "endemic diseases" are infectious diseases that are not destructive to social order but have not been eliminated. Fauci divides the pandemic into 5 phases, namely pandemic, slowdown, control, elimination, eradication, and so far humans have only eradicated smallpox. "The world is not going to make wearing a mask normal. The so-called new normal means better control. He noted that covid-19 will not be completely eliminated, but that people need to control it so that it "does not disrupt our normal social, economic and other activities."

Wilder Smith argues that it is too early to say that COVID-19 is a "endemic disease.". Michael Ryan, Executive Director of WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, argues that "endemic diseases" don't mean getting better, it just means it will be in one place for a long time.

When will the COVID-19 pandemic be declared "over"?

The Lancet article predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist but the global pandemic is likely to end soon, with the key point in time being March this year, when half of the world's population will be infected with the Omilon strain, and with vaccination, humanity will build an immune barrier.

Tedros stressed that the pandemic is far from over. With the spread of the Omiljun strain across the globe at an alarming rate, new variants are likely to emerge, which is why tracking and evaluating (cases) remains crucial.

"We are in a different situation now than we were two years ago," Wilder-Smith argues, "when some 7.7 billion people were at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, some 7.7 billion people were completely immune to the virus, and now more than 50 percent of the world's population is fully vaccinated." We're going to have a better summer. But she also warned that we need a global response to pandemic preparedness and greater communication.

Pollock said, "I don't think the pandemic will end this year, but with scientific research and globally coordinated efforts, we may be getting into a better phase."

Hatchett told reporters that if the biggest challenge to dealing with the epidemic in 2021 is vaccine production, then 2022 may be a matter of equitable distribution. Pollock believes that new vaccines and diagnostic tools are important tools to help control the pandemic, and the emergence of mutant strains proves the need to strengthen vaccine research and development, especially vaccine development that can cope with mutated viruses. In addition, research and development of new therapies should be increased.

"What we need to do is reduce COVID-19 incidence and maximize the vaccination of our population so that no one dies," Ryan said. He concluded that this was the end of the pandemic.

Source: Xinhua News Agency