Recently, an article in the famous British medical journal "The Lancet" has aroused people's attention and heated discussion. In his commentary, author Murray predicted that the global pandemic of the new coronavirus is coming to an end.
Murray has focused on global diseases for more than three decades and is an expert in epidemiology. Murray predicts that the coronavirus will always exist, but the global pandemic is likely to end, and the most critical time point is March 2022. By then, half of the world's population will be infected with Opmikeron. In addition, vaccination is also continuing to advance, and humanity will establish an immune barrier against Omi kerong.
In the commentary, Murray based his analysis on the IHME model and made the following points. First, the infectivity of Omikeron is unprecedentedly strong, and its wave of infection is "invading" continents at a very fast rate. However, compared with the previous Delta strain, the number of infected people with Omikerong is mostly mild or asymptomatic, and the number of severely ill patients is significantly reduced. Second, due to the high infection rate in Omilon, the number of hospitalizations will continue to increase, and the medical system will face some pressure in the next 4 to 6 weeks. In addition, the current various anti-epidemic measures in various countries, such as proposing to wear masks and promoting a third dose of vaccination, from a population perspective, have not played much role in slowing the spread of Omi kerong. Finally, the spread of Omikeron has peaked in many countries. By March 2022, more than half of the world's population will have been exposed to the virus or vaccinated, which will bring human immunity to Opmikharong to a new level.
Based on detailed data analysis, Murray came to the final conclusion: after the disappearance of TheOmilgun, the new crown epidemic will make a comeback, but the global pandemic will not. The era when governments and societies had to take special measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 is about to become a thing of the past.
At present, the Olmikeron strain has replaced the Delta strain as the main epidemic strain in many countries. Omilon has the characteristics of high contagiousness and low pathogenicity, and before Murray, many researchers have speculated that this may be the beginning of the "end" of the epidemic. The new crown may become a "nother flu" in the future.
However, some people believe that Omikeron is not the last strain, and new mutants may appear anywhere at any time. At present, the direction of the new crown epidemic is still uncertain, sudden and uncertain.
Just a day before Murray's comments, the WHO Director-General warned that the pandemic was far from over. New mutant strains are likely to emerge at any time, so it is important to track and evaluate cases.
Some scholars have analyzed that as long as the transmission rate of the virus is high enough, and there are still unprotected populations in the world, an environment suitable for virus mutation may appear again. The emergence of Aomi Kerong is also in such a situation. The scholar believes that the new crown virus will continue to mutate, and even evolve, at any time and any place to trigger another pandemic.
A Uk professor of epidemiology said: "The best case scenario is that the pathogenicity of the virus continues to weaken, but the world needs to prepare for the worst." ”
At present, most authoritative experts in related fields still believe that only by global cooperation and working together can mankind defeat the new crown and get out of the epidemic this morning. COVID-19 will not necessarily end quickly, but with the joint efforts of all countries, humanity will certainly enter a new era of better, healthier and safer.