Guotai Junan: The three most promising automotive Alpha directions in 2022

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the beta opportunity of the passenger car sector in 2022 will continue, especially in the stage of replenishing inventory, considering the slope of marginal improvement, the bank's judgment is that the opportunity for parts is greater than that of the whole vehicle; In the marginal increment of some alpha field opportunities are stronger, hybrid industrial chain, high-end intelligent electric industry chain, high-voltage fast charging industry chain and so on. Beneficiary targets: Cockpit Electronics Recommendation: Shangsheng Electronics (688533.SH), Huayang Group (002906.SZ), Huayu Automobile (600741.SH), Joyson Electronics (600699.SH), etc., Autonomous Driving and Hardware and Software Service Recommendation: Keboda (603786.SH), Geely Automobile (00175), Lianchuang Electronics (002036.SZ), Sunny Optical Technology (02382), etc.; Chassis electronic recommendation: Bethel (603596.SH), Zhongding shares (000887.SZ), etc.; Body electronic recommendation: Xingyu shares (601799.SH), Fuyao glass (600660.SH); Other areas recommended: Hop Hing (605005.SH), Huguang (605333.SH). Recommended in the field of vehicles: BYD (002594) and so on. Recommended in the field of incremental components: double ring transmission (002472.SZ), etc.; High-pressure recommendations: Hop Hing shares (605005.SH) and so on.

Intelligent cockpit, body electronics and other supporting industrial chains

Driven by the change of consumer groups and the shaping of new profit models, the intelligent development of automobiles is accelerating, and the boundaries of intelligence are constantly expanding. As a generation that grew up with the rise of smart phones, the demand for intelligent networking of cars after 90/00 is more prominent, especially in the fields of cockpit & automatic driving with a deep sense of experience, which will become an important factor affecting car purchase decisions; at the same time, the profit model of the automotive industry is extending from the manufacturing end to the software side, and the profit object is expanding from new car sales to the whole life cycle of the stock market, and intelligence is the premise of realizing the new profit model, and it is also the most important carrier. Driven by multiple factors, automotive intelligence will usher in accelerated development, and the boundaries of intelligence will gradually move from precision control to improving the driving experience.

Relatively low single product price, low safety level requirements, strong experience feeling, intelligent cockpit products have a strong explosiveness. As the main body of the driving space, the cockpit is easier to form intelligent interaction and driving experience with the driver from the two dimensions of vision and hearing, and it is easy to create a differentiated selling point; The main applications of the cockpit are multi-screen, acoustic systems, HUDs, etc. The unit price is relatively low, and it is compatible with mid-range models and thus has a wide range of customer groups; In addition to the car and machine, the safety level requirements of most products in the cockpit are relatively low, and the development cycle is relatively short. Taken together, the smart cockpit has the basis for rapid volume.

The assembly rate of L2+ level ADAS has begun to accelerate, driving the rapid discharge of sensors such as perception layer cameras and millimeter-wave radar, and the in-line control application at the executive end will also accelerate penetration. In 2020, China's ADAS assembly is mainly based on L0 and L1 levels, and it is expected that the penetration rate of L2+ levels will reach 35% by 2025, and the bicycle usage of cameras and millimeter wave radars will continue to increase in this process; At the executive end, higher-level automatic driving requires more intense decoupling of wire control for products such as braking and steering, and accelerates the penetration of line control and electronic steering.

Investment advice: Recommend cockpit electronics, automatic driving and software and hardware industry chain, body electronics and other supporting industry chains. Cabin electronics recommended targets of Shangsheng Electronics, Huayang Group, Huayu Automobile, Joyson Electronics, etc., autonomous driving and software and hardware services recommended targets of Keboda, Desay SV, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Lianchuang Electronics (electronic group coverage), Sunny Optical Technology (electronic group coverage), Zhongke Chuangda (computer group coverage); Chassis electronic recommendation targets Bethel, Zhongding Shares, Baolong Technology, Tuopu Group; Body electronics recommend Xingyu shares, Fuyao glass; Other areas recommend Hop Hing shares, benefiting the target Huguang shares.

Hybrid products

The strength of a new generation of hybrid products has been significantly improved, and the industry outbreak is imminent under the catalysis of policy and supply and demand. The core reason for the continuous downturn in the hybrid industry in the past is that the hybrid products lose electricity and oil and the cost is high, and the consumer recognition is low. Compared with the previous generation of hybrid products, the new generation of hybrid system represented by BYD DMI solves the core shortcomings of the state of power loss that is more expensive than the oil car. At the same time, with the comprehensive decline in the cost of the three-electricity system and the price difference with the oil truck from 60,000-80,000 to 1-20,000, the price of oil and electricity has basically been realized after considering the purchase tax concession. In addition, under the dual policy support and spur of the new version of the road map and the double integration policy, the driving force of car companies to push hybrid has been further strengthened, and the supply side of the positive promotion has been greatly enriched. The pain point contradiction of consumers using pure electric vehicles to charge is once again intensified, hybridization can solve the pain points of pure electric use and can achieve a high-level intelligent experience that fuel vehicles cannot provide, and the current point-in-time hybrid industry is about to erupt.

The advantages and disadvantages of the three mainstream high-voltage hybrid technology routes have both market demand. Hybrid in China is still in the early stage of penetration improvement, HEV, PHEV, extended range hybrid and other three types of high-voltage mainstream hybrid technology routes have both advantages and disadvantages, all three have no mileage anxiety, all have their own needs. Among them, HEV is a high-voltage strong hybrid, no need to charge and low purchase cost, the disadvantage is that pure electric battery life is short and can not enjoy policy support such as green card. PHEV adds a large-capacity battery on the basis of meeting the main advantages of HEV fuel saving, and the short-distance working conditions in the urban area can achieve pure electric driving, and the disadvantage is that the cost is slightly higher. The extender belongs to a special series architecture PHEV, the global motor drive is the best ride, the disadvantage is that the engine can not drive the vehicle, high-speed high load state fuel consumption is too high.

Compared with fuel oil and pure electricity, there are incremental components, and the market space of the hybrid industry chain is vast. Hybrid vehicles, as the most complex technology collection, have incremental components compared to fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. The changes are mainly focused on the power system and drive control, involving the improvement of technology and components for hybrid engines, the improvement of hybrid transmissions, and the hybrid power control system. Vehicle and incremental components in the future market space is broad, it is expected that in 2025, the hybrid industry HEV + PHEV (including range extender) sales are expected to reach about 6.8 million vehicles, penetration rate of about 25%, 2022-2025 compound growth rate of 54%, the rapid growth of hybrid sales is expected to drive the synchronous high growth of incremental components, the total market space of related incremental components is expected to exceed 150 billion.

Investment advice: The bank is optimistic about the opportunities brought about by the rapid growth of the hybrid subdivision industry in the future, recommends companies with active layout in the field of vehicles and incremental components, and the recommended targets in the vehicle field are BYD, Great Wall Motors, Geely Automobile, etc., and the beneficiary targets are ideal automobiles and well-off shares. The recommended targets in the field of incremental components are double-ring transmission and Chervon Automobile, and the beneficiary targets are Ryo electric control, Longsheng Technology, etc.

High pressure fast charging

Solving the charging problem with the help of high-voltage fast charging will become an industry trend, and the technical upgrading of high-voltage systems will bring about the dual optimization of the total amount and the competitive landscape. From 2021 onwards, car companies will accelerate the introduction of high-voltage fast charging to solve the charging problem. With the landing of the super charging pile standard, superimposed on the technical progress of supporting high-voltage components, the next few years will accelerate the launch of high-voltage fast charging models to drive the rapid growth of related components, while the increase in technical threshold will also help the market share to concentrate on technical advantages of enterprises, recommend the target Hexing shares, benefit the target Xinrui Technology, Ruida.

From high mileage to fast charging, high-voltage fast charging has become the mainstream solution. After achieving high cruising range, charging problems will become the consumer anxiety that car companies will focus on solving next. At present, there are three main types of solutions, one is the power exchange program represented by Weilai Automobile, the second is the high-current fast charging scheme represented by Tesla, and the third is the high-voltage fast charging scheme represented by Porsche, etc. From the perspective of cost and technical realizability, high-voltage fast charging is expected to become the mainstream solution. Since 2021, BYD, Extreme Krypton, GAC, Xiaopeng and many other car companies have successively launched or proposed 800-volt high-voltage platforms, as a means to solve the charging problem, the landing of super charging pile standards in 2021 has also created objective conditions for the development of the industry. The high charging power of high-voltage fast charging is usually reflected in 20%-80% of the charging amount, and the power at both ends is relatively low, so fast charging is suitable as an important means of power replenishment.

Under the high-voltage fast charging route, higher requirements have been put forward for both the car end and the charging end. At the charging pile end, the thermal management requirements for high-power charging are higher, and liquid cooling is usually required; Higher requirements are also put forward for the high-voltage components of the vehicle end, including the big three electric (battery, motor, electronic control), the small three electric (OBC, PDU and DCDC) and the electric compressor, which are reflected in the power semiconductor, battery material, high voltage connection module and its material, to meet the properties of high voltage resistance, insulation and EMC.

Investment advice: High voltage-related small three electric (OBC, PDU, DCDC) OEM purchase ratio is high, providing third-party enterprises with greater development space; At the same time, in the fields of high-voltage connection components (including connectors and connection modules), with the continuous improvement of the technical threshold, the market will be concentrated to the head enterprises with technical advantages; The amount of bicycles used in high-pressure-resistant materials will also increase. Recommend the target Hexing shares (high voltage connection module), benefit the target Ofex Technology (OBC), Ruida (high voltage connector).

This article comes from Guotai Junan Feilai Automobile WeChat public account, author: Guojun Automobile Team, Zhitong Financial Editor: Yang Wanlin