Guotai Junan: Technology and market power, charging pile ushered in the outlet

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that from the demand side, new energy vehicles have become one of the best means to adjust the energy consumption structure. Under the low-carbon economy, electrification accelerates, which in turn drives the demand for charging piles to rise. As a bridge between the upstream and downstream of the new energy industry chain, the construction of charging piles has received attention from all parties, and on the basis of the national new energy vehicle development route, various places have successively launched charging pile construction plans. With the steady growth and development of superimposed high-voltage fast charging technology, the main line of investment is to pay attention to the charging operation market and high-voltage system parts manufacturers.

Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:

The global relay of energy transformation and the demand for charging piles driven by the era of electrification have risen.

With the advancement of carbon emission reduction, new energy vehicles have become one of the ways to adjust the structure of energy consumption, and the fast-growing new energy vehicle market has increased the demand for charging piles. By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% year-on-year; The number of charging infrastructure reached 2.617 million units, an increase of 70.1% year-on-year, of which 1.147 million units of public charging infrastructure and 1.470 million units of charging piles were built with vehicles. According to the prediction of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, with the improvement of battery and vehicle integration technology, new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the market demand for charging piles will be further expanded.

Stripping away the cocoon: looking at the charging pile from the perspective of the industrial chain.

The upstream of the electric vehicle charging pile industry chain is the manufacturing link of charging pile components and equipment; Midstream is the charging operation link, including charging pile and charging station construction and operation services; Downstream for the post-service market links, such as obtaining a large amount of data when charging, through data mining and analysis to provide value-added data services. Overall, equipment parts manufacturers and charging pile operators are the most important areas of the charging pile industry chain. On the technical path, fast charging and power exchange are accelerating industrial upgrading.

Steady growth, charging piles are at the intersection of new and old infrastructure.

At the construction end, the number of charging piles has grown rapidly. By the end of 2021, the number of charging infrastructure in the country reached 2.617 million units, an increase of 70.1% year-on-year. In recent years, the number of charging piles has basically maintained a sustained and efficient growth trend, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio has dropped from 7.8:1 in 2015 to 3:1 in 2021. On the operational side, the amount of charging continues to grow rapidly, and the demand for charging passenger cars accelerates. In 2021, the total charging capacity of the mainland reached 11.15 billion kWh, up 58.0% year-on-year, and from the monthly level, it was significantly higher than in 2020. At the same time, the total market share of top 3 enterprises in charging operation exceeds 60%, and the overall situation is strong and strong. In terms of market space, it is expected that the cumulative scale of charging pile equipment will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2022-2025, of which the single-year market size is expected to reach 70 billion yuan in 2025.

Next air outlet: high-pressure fast charging technology.

From high mileage to fast charging, high-voltage fast charging has become the mainstream solution. In addition to improving the charging power, the use of high-voltage architecture can significantly reduce the current under the condition that the output power of the vehicle motor is unchanged, thereby effectively reducing heat loss and bringing about an increase in cruising range; The significantly reduced current brings about a reduction in the wire harness diameter in the car, which is conducive to the optimization of the space layout in the car and effectively reduces the weight of the vehicle. Following the Porsche Taycan, BYD, GAC, Xiaopeng and many other car companies have successively launched 800-volt high-voltage platforms.

Main line of investment: focus on the charging operation market and high-voltage system parts manufacturers.

Investment is divided into two main lines: 1) charging operation market: the industry shows a head concentration trend, leading enterprises have geographical advantages and first-mover advantages in the layout of charging piles, with the increase in the amount of charging (single pile utilization rate) brought about by the increase in ownership, the operating service fee will grow rapidly and the profitability will improve.

2) High-voltage system parts suppliers: With the landing of the supercharger pile standard, the technical progress of superimposed supporting high-voltage components, the high-voltage fast-charging models will accelerate the launch of related parts and components, and the improvement of the technical threshold will also help the market share to concentrate on technological advantages.

Risk Warning: Sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; The development of high-voltage fast charging technology is constrained; The charging pile industry policy is less than expected.

This article is excerpted from the WeChat public account "Chen Xianshun Strategy Research"; Author: Chen Xianshun, Huang Weichi; Zhitong Finance Editor: Xie Yuxia.