Per reporter: Guo Rongcun Per intern reporter: An Yufei Per reporter Editor: Chen Junjie
Once a community group buying concept stock, today's one of the prefabricated vegetable leaders, Guolian Aquatic Products (300094, SZ) "stepping on the wind" ability as always. However, the community group buying that was once known as the "trillion track" has now entered a "cooling off period", and now the new "trillion track" prefabricated dishes can become a real outlet?
Recently, relying on the popularity of prefabricated dishes, the stock price of Guolian Aquatic Products has soared. In 4 trading days, the stock price of Guolian Aquatic Products rose from 5.39 yuan / share at the opening of the 12th to 9.79 yuan / share at the close of the 17th, an increase of 81.63%.
However, subsequently, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern, asking Guolian Aquatic Products to provide information such as the actual operation of the pre-made vegetable-related business. According to the reply of Guolian Aquatic Products, in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's prefabricated vegetable revenue accounted for 17.49% of operating income, and the proportion of prefabricated vegetable operating income to the overall operating income was still small.
However, although the proportion of prefabricated vegetable revenue is not high at present, in the previous annual report and semi-annual report of Guolian Aquatic Products, prefabricated dishes are properly "C-bit". For example, in the 2021 semi-annual report, Guolian Aquatic Products said that the company's main products can be divided into: deep processing based on pre-made dishes, primary processing, and global seafood selection. As you can see, the prepared dishes are placed in the most prominent position.
This also reflects the importance that Guolian Aquatic Products attaches to the business of pre-made dishes. In the above-mentioned semi-annual report, Guolian Aquatic Products said that the company's product structure has gradually transformed into catering ingredients and marine foods based on pre-made dishes. So, what is the color of the prefabricated vegetable business of Guolian Aquatic Products? Is this road of transformation good or bad?
The proportion of overseas business revenue declined, and the transformation of prefabricated dishes was "broken"
Guolian Aquatic Products is a comprehensive aquatic food group based on the processing of South American white shrimp, supplemented by crayfish, tilapia, sea bass and other seafood aquatic products, and is also the first domestic shrimp and tilapia double BAP four-star certification enterprise.
The transformation of prefabricated dishes is not only for the purpose of deep processing to improve the added value of products, but also to "kill a blood road" in the fiercely competitive domestic market, because the overseas markets on which Guolian Aquatic Products once relied on, the proportion of revenue contributed in recent years is declining.
Fast forward to 2010, when Guolian Aquatic Products had just submitted a prospectus. In the prospectus, Guolian Aquatic Products mentioned that from 2007 to 2009, the sales revenue of the company's export products accounted for 87.29%, 91.48% and 81.9% of the main business income, respectively.
For The League of Nations Fisheries at that time, the United States was its most important market in the world. Also from 2007 to 2009, the US market accounted for 80.89%, 87.84% and 75.03% of the company's operating income, respectively.
However, in recent years, due to Sino-US trade frictions and the impact of the global epidemic, the overseas business of Guolian Aquatic Products has been hit hard. By 2019, the proportion of overseas revenue of Guolian Aquatic Products in revenue has fallen to 54.9%, and the proportion of domestic market revenue has exceeded the proportion of the US market for the first time.
Also from 2019, the performance of Guolian Aquatic Products began to turn downward, and in 2018, it also achieved a profit of 231 million yuan, but the net profit in 2019 was a loss of 491 million yuan, and a loss of 269 million yuan in 2020, until the first three quarters of 2021, it turned a loss into a profit, achieving a net profit of 11.1984 million yuan.
According to the data on the website of the US Marine Fisheries Administration, from 2014 to 2021, the us import volume and import volume (kg) of tilapia and shrimp products imported from China have shown a continuous downward trend. In 2014, U.S. imports of tilapia and shrimp products to China totaled $206 million, worth $1.045 billion, and by 2021, imports of these two major products have fallen to 119 million kilograms, worth $339 million. Pull out the two types of products separately to calculate the value per kilogram, and you will find that this indicator also shows a continuous downward trend.
Under the joint influence of a variety of factors, Guolian Aquatic Products chose to shift its focus to the domestic market. So how to open up the situation in the domestic market and find new growth points? Pre-made dishes may be its carefully selected "game-breaking" road.
In its reply to the Letter of Concern from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Guolian Aquatic Products said that prefabricated dishes are still in the early stages of development in China, and the scale of operation is mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, with a large number but a low degree of market concentration, obvious regional characteristics, fierce competition but unclear pattern.
As one of the few marine food enterprises in China that integrates global procurement, deep processing and food research and development, Guolian Aquatic Products seems to have the confidence to build its own barriers on the track of prefabricated dishes, which is still in the early stage of development.
However, for the current Guolian Aquatic Products, the revenue proportion of the prefabricated vegetable business is still not high. In 2019, prepared dishes accounted for 13.69% of the company's operating income, 16.24% in 2020, and 17.49% in the first three quarters of 2021. In the case that the prefabricated vegetable track has received capital attention, the competition in the industry may be more intense in the future.
And for Guolian Aquatic Products, which is mainly based on seafood products, the development of pre-made vegetable business may also face "price problems". Many years ago, Guolian Aquatic Products mainly relied on overseas markets to achieve revenue, and one of the reasons why it was difficult to open up the situation in China was that the price of aquatic products was often not so "beautiful".
Then, when the pre-made dish is still in the early stage of development, consumers do not fully trust the safety, nutrition and taste of the pre-made dish, the high price may become a major "persuasion" factor. For Guolian Aquatic Products, this is also a difficulty.
Under high inventory, there are doubts around inventory
In addition to the above-mentioned "hidden worries" of developing prefabricated dishes, Guolian Aquatic Products is also facing problems such as high inventory and high inventory turnover days.
According to the 2021 semi-annual report, as of the end of the reporting period, the inventory amount of Guolian Aquatic Products was 2.611 billion yuan, accounting for 52.88% of the total assets.
According to the previous explanation of Guolian Aquatic Products, the high inventory is due to the long production and processing cycle of the aquatic industry, the mismatch between supply and demand cycle and production cycle, the long export transportation time, etc. The company needs to prepare goods in advance to meet the stability of procurement off-season sales and the stable demand of large customer supply, and the inventory of industry companies is generally high.
However, compared with other listed companies in the aquatic industry, the inventory ratio of Guolian Aquatic Products is significantly higher. According to Wind data, there are 8 A-share aquatic concept listed companies, namely Haida Group (002311, SZ), Zhangzidao (002069, SZ), Tongwei (600438, SH), Haodangjia (600467, SH), Guolian Aquatic Products, Pioneering International (600094, SH), Great Lakes (600257, SH), and China Water Fisheries (000798, SZ).
Taking the 2020 financial report data as an example, the average inventory of these 8 companies accounts for 13.84% of total assets. Among them, the inventory of Guolian aquatic products accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 49.65%. In second place is Great Lakes Shares, with an inventory ratio of 28.73%. It can be seen that the inventory ratio of Guolian Aquatic Products is significantly higher than that of its peers. Not only that, from the inventory turnover days, accounts receivable turnover days and other indicators, Guolian Aquatic Products also ranked in the top three positions.
Querying past data, it can be found that since 2014, the inventory of Guolian Aquatic Products has always been above 40% of total assets, and even has a trend of continuous increase.
You know, too much inventory is not a good thing in most cases, let alone in the aquatic industry that is pursuing freshness and short inventory shelf life. The proportion of inventory is high, so that Guolian Aquatic Products has to make a large provision for inventory price decline every year.
In 2019, the carrying amount of Guolian Aquatic Products inventory was 2.751 billion yuan, and 498 million yuan of inventory price decline provision was made, with a provision ratio of 18.11%. In 2020, the carrying amount of Guolian Aquatic Products' inventory was 2.952 billion yuan, and 422 million yuan of inventory price decline provision was made in the year, with a provision ratio of 14.3%.
It is worth noting that because it is impossible to obtain sufficient and appropriate audit evidence on the reasonableness of the provision for inventory decline, the 2019 financial report of Guolian Aquatic Products was also issued by Lixin Certified Public Accountants (Special General Partnership) with a qualified opinion.
Just before the official release of the 2019 financial report of Guolian Aquatic Products, Guolian Aquatic Products received an inquiry letter from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange because of the revision of the 2019 performance express. After the amendment, Guolian Aquatic Products reduced its operating income by 939 million yuan, accounting for 20% of the revised operating income. At the same time, Guolian Aquatic Products also reduced its net profit by 399 million yuan, accounting for 83% of the absolute value of the revised net profit.
The reduction in operating income and net profit is also related to inventory. To put it simply, the reduction of the former is that in order to alleviate the pressure on funds, Guolian Aquatic Products "mortgaged" the ownership of inventory to downstream companies in the aquatic industry, "borrowed money" from them, and obtained temporary working capital. As a result, the $940 million involved in this part was missed at the time of the consolidated offset, resulting in an overcharging of both sales revenue and sales costs of $940 million. The latter reduction, according to Guolian Aquatic Products, is "affected by the global expansion of the epidemic, and the net realizable value of inventory has declined".
It is understood that Guolian Aquatic Products mainly does aquatic products processing, purchasing raw materials from suppliers, and then using multiple channels for sales after processing. Although in many financial reports, Guolian Aquatic Products has mentioned strengthening inventory control and improving turnover efficiency, from the current data, the results of these initiatives do not seem to be obvious.
It is worth mentioning that on July 23, 2021, Guolian Aquatic Products also received a decision on administrative supervision measures from the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau. The company and its chairman Li Zhong and other senior executives were issued warning letters.
One of the reasons for the warning letter is that from 2015 to September 2020, Guolian Aquatic Products transferred 15,200 tons of raw materials to 41 personal accounts controlled by Xinyu Guotong Investment Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Xinyu Guotong), the company's controlling shareholder, with a total transaction amount of 520 million yuan. This large-scale related party transaction was not reviewed or disclosed, and it was not recorded in time when the raw materials were put into storage, and the financial treatment was carried out only when the actual external payment was made, resulting in the problem of inaccuracies in the financial data of Guolian Aquatic Products for many years.
Taking 2019 as an example, the company's inventory and accounts payable at the end of the year were understated by 113 million yuan, the inventory price decline reserve was understated by 16.2747 million yuan, the asset impairment loss was undercounted by 16.2747 million yuan, the deferred tax assets were understated by 2.4412 million yuan, the income tax expense was overstated by 2.4412 million yuan, and the net profit was overstated by 13.8335 million yuan.
In addition, according to Qixinbao data, the business scope of Xinyu Guotong is enterprise investment, asset management, project investment planning, conference and exhibition services. It seems that it is not compatible with aquatic products. Why did Guolian Aquatic Products buy Penaeus vannamei from Xinyu Guotong, or through Xinyu Guotong to purchase Penaeus vannamei?
The transaction amount of $520 million is not a small amount. Taking 2016 as an example, the average purchase amount of Guolian Aquatic Products to the top five suppliers in that year was 85.1231 million yuan. Judging from the financial reports in recent years, Guolian Aquatic Products does not seem to have the habit of purchasing raw materials in large quantities from the controlling shareholders: in the financial reports from 2016 to 2020, Guolian Aquatic Products filled in 0 in the "proportion of related party procurement in the procurement volume of the top five suppliers to the total annual procurement".
In order to further understand the issues such as the inventory of Guolian aquatic products, the reporter contacted the Guolian Aquatic Products and Securities Department and sent an interview letter to the company's mailbox as required, but as of press time, there was no reply.
Prefabricated dishes have broad prospects, but the development of the industry is still facing difficulties
To solve the problem of excessive inventory, in addition to inventory control and reasonable procurement planning, it is also a way to make products "better selling". The transformation of pre-made dishes is one of the ways for Guolian Aquatic Products to enrich the variety of products and improve the competitiveness of the product market.
In the analysis of many research reports, the prospects for prepared dishes are "very broad". Even on January 18, Guolian Aquatic Products replied to the letter of concern of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and also revealed that the chairman of the company had called the prefabricated dish a "trillion" track based on five brokerage research reports.
For example, a research report by Guohai Securities said that there are currently (January 2021) upstream prefabricated vegetable enterprises with an average annual sales of about 15 million, that is, the current market stock of prefabricated vegetables is about 300 billion yuan, accounting for less than 10% of the total proportion of ingredients. If it is estimated according to the compound growth rate of 20% per year, in the next 6-7 years, China's prepared vegetable market can grow into a trillion yuan market.
Tianfeng Securities related research report also pointed out that in the long run, with the proportion of the mainland prefabricated vegetable industry reaching more than 60%, it is expected to achieve a scale of more than 3 trillion yuan, and there is a large space for development in the future.
So, will the development of pre-made dishes really be smooth sailing? To land the "prospect" and truly enter the consumer end, what problems do prepared dishes face?
Xiao Liu, a graduate student in Xiamen, is a consumer who often eats "prepared dishes", and he believes that pre-made dishes are still lacking in taste compared with freshly washed and freshly cut dishes, and everyone is worried about whether it is healthy enough.
"One window of our school canteen uses cooking bags, which are prepared dishes, and there are many dishes, including minced eggplant, kung pao chicken, potatoes and beef. However, you can obviously eat that all the dishes are soft and sticky, and the taste is really different from fresh vegetables, although the taste is OK. Xiao Liu said.
Xiao Liu also said that since the students found out that the canteen window used pre-made dishes, the flow of people at that window was getting smaller and smaller, proving that everyone still had concerns about pre-made dishes.
So, can pre-made dishes meet health and nutrition needs? According to a research report by East Asia Qianhai Securities, because the prepared dish is produced under the research of professionals, the reasonable ratio of each condiment and the nutrient ingredient is uniformly produced through the food industry, so the proportion of ingredients in the product is scientific and healthy, and because the prefabricated dish storage process has been in a low temperature and sealed environment, it can inhibit the growth of microorganisms and bacteria, and it will be healthier and more hygienic to eat.
However, the perception of many consumers may have a certain conflict with the relevant content of the above research report. Xiao Liu said: "You go to the supermarket to see, like what plum vegetable buckle meat and other pre-made dishes, the shelf life is 12 months. Even if you keep it at low temperature at home, you can't store it for so long, right? There's definitely something inside. I don't know if these are healthy or not. ”
For consumers' concerns about additives, one of the entrants in the prefabricated vegetable industry, Anjing Food (603345, SH) Securities Department staff told reporters that in fact, if there is no food additive, there is no food industry, so the most important thing is that the enterprise must comply with and standardize, the addition must be edible food additives, and the second is that it must meet the standards of the state, industry and enterprises. In the case of meeting these conditions, additives are not something that makes people "talk about discoloration".
For the nutritional problems of prepared dishes, the above staff said that prepared dishes are usually divided into three categories: instant food, instant heat, and instant cooking. Instant food is like pickled pepper claws and the like, unpacking can be eaten, that is, heat is the need to go through simple heating, such as through the microwave oven, that is, cooking needs to be cooked again, such as Yasui food made of cumin lamb chops, black pepper cow bones and other products, need to cook to cook.
"In fact, we are mainly in the plate of quick-frozen pre-made dishes, quick-freezing itself is a very healthy way of preservation, we quick-freeze through the way of liquid nitrogen, and everyone at home through the refrigerator slowly frozen is not the same concept, liquid nitrogen freezing process of food overall nutritional value, as well as its internal subtle molecular structure is not easy to be destroyed." Yasui food staff.
He also said that quick-frozen products do not need to be preserved by adding oil and salt like traditional pickles and pickles. Compared with traditional preservation methods, quick freezing will be healthier and more scientific.
Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng believes that the current pain points in the prefabricated vegetable industry market are mainly two aspects: on the one hand, there is no national standard, which will cause hidden dangers in food safety; on the other hand, the recognition and acceptance of prefabricated dishes by the consumer side may not be enough, and some consumers will think that the nutrition of prefabricated vegetables has been lost or the ingredients are not fresh. In the future, how to match and meet the core needs and demands of the consumer side will be an urgent issue and problem for the entire prepared vegetable industry.
"Consumers are not aware of pre-made dishes enough. To solve this problem, not only do we need more innovation and upgrading and product iteration on the industry side, but also need the capital side to help the entire industry develop in a healthy, conscientious and orderly direction. Zhu Danpeng said.
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