Russia and the West Security Dialogue Ends Without Results There is a risk that the regional security situation will deteriorate

According to comprehensive foreign media reports, Russia has held talks with the United States, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (os-security organization for short) recently, but has not achieved substantive results. In this context, the strategic game between Russia and the West may continue to intensify, and there is a risk that the regional security situation will deteriorate.

The security dialogue has been fruitless

On January 10, the United States and Russia held a Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva, Switzerland. On January 12, the NATO-Russia Council meeting was held at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. On 13 January, Russia and the West held a dialogue within the framework of the OSCE in Vienna, Austria. None of the three rounds of dialogue achieved substantive results.

The focus of the three rounds of dialogues was on issues such as the situation in Ukraine and Relations between Russia and the West. The Russian side put forward three basic requirements, namely, NATO does not expand eastward, does not deploy anti-attack weapons in the territories of Russia's neighboring countries, and withdraws troops to the defensive line before the eastward expansion in 1997. According to foreign media, "the United States and NATO still regard Russia as their main opponents and have not met Russia's security requirements such as NATO's non-eastward expansion", and the dialogue on security guarantees has reached an impasse.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia's negotiations with the West on security guarantees reflect a serious confrontation between Russia and the West on the world stage, and the West is trying to maintain its dominance. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said that there is no reason for Russia to restart the same dialogue in the next few days, and Russia will not make concessions on this issue.

Carpenter, the U.S. permanent representative to the OSCE, said the U.S. side has a willingness to dialogue and is also preparing for a possible further escalation of the crisis.

The United States and Europe have different positions

While russia and the West have held many rounds of dialogue without success, there are differences in the statements of the United States and Europe.

The U.S. side is tough. Amid negotiations between Russia and the West, U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers landed at a Slovak airfield bordering Ukraine. The Slovak government has approved the signing of a military agreement with the United States to set the framework for the possibility of the United States using Slovak air bases. The United States hopes to increase its military presence in Slovakia by expanding two military airfields. On January 15, U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan said that after a week of negotiations, the United States has "no illusions" about Russia, and the United States is ready to take necessary measures to protect allies and partners and fight back against possible "acts of aggression."

In addition, the Democratic U.S. Senator recently submitted a bill to sanction Russia. According to the bill, russian military and political officials, including Putin, will be sanctioned if Ukraine is attacked by Russia. Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said that the inclusion of the head of state as the target of sanctions is equivalent to proposing to sever relations, and in the context of a series of talks, such documents and statements on the US side are extremely negative.

The European side is cautious. France, Germany, Italy and other countries hope that the United States will avoid completely negating Russia's demands and give priority to easing the situation in Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a recent press conference in Brussels that NATO is willing to hold renewed talks with Russia on arms control, missile deployment and confidence-building measures.

Voices in Germany believe that Russia's proposal to ban Ukraine from joining NATO is legitimate. Steffen Kort, a member of the German right-wing Alternative Party, said that after the end of the Cold War, NATO expanded eastward in spite of the agreement, getting closer and closer to the Russian border, and the United States established multiple military bases around Russia, which made Russia in trouble. The Russian side took it for granted that it would resist this behavior, and it was legitimate to insist that NATO should not absorb Ukraine.

The strategic game may intensify

From a comprehensive point of view, the resultless security dialogue between Russia and the West is not only the embodiment of the confrontation between the two sides on practical issues such as the situation in Eastern Ukraine, the deployment of medium-range missiles, and nato's eastward expansion, but also a concentrated embodiment of the structural contradictions between the two sides since the end of the Cold War. In the future, the strategic game between the two sides may continue to intensify.

On the one hand, the field of gaming may expand. Previously, although the Western countries led by the United States have repeatedly claimed to respond to the so-called "Russian invasion of Ukraine" with "unprecedented and decisive measures", these measures have only stopped at the level of energy and financial sanctions and chip embargoes. After this round of talks, the United States said that the US intelligence community has not yet made an assessment of Russia's decision to take military action against Ukraine, but the United States is ready for "two hands.". In the next step, the pattern of the strategic game between the United States and Russia may gradually change from economic as the mainstay and military as a supplement to a combination of military, political, economic, and diplomatic affairs, with full-time and all-domain confrontation.

On the other hand, the risk of conflict may increase. According to Russian media reports, Lavrov said that if the United States and NATO do not accept Russia's proposal on security guarantees, Russia will assess the situation and act according to its own interests.

Foreign media believe that after three "different frequencies at the same table" dialogue, Russia's strategic patience with the Western countries led by the United States has basically been exhausted. Foreign media said that in the face of the severe external situation of "no retreat" and the sudden increase in the risk of "wiping away the gun" on the Ukrainian issue, Russia may take the initiative to attack and exert high-profile pressure on the United States and NATO with military demonstrations, demonstrating Russia's firm determination to defend national security interests. The risk of military conflict between the United States, Russia and Europe may continue to increase.

Source: China National Defense Daily