Experts say the fourth wave of the epidemic in South Africa is nearing its end, giving hope to the global fight against Omicron?

As the Aumechjong strain swept the world, what happened to South Africa, where was the first report of TheOmilon? According to foreign media reports on the 18th, only 8 weeks after reporting the Aomi Kerong strain, South Africa has withstood the test in the confrontation with TheOmilon, and the fourth wave of the new crown wave is nearing the end. Does the good news in South Africa also portend hope for a global fight against the pandemic? What do public health experts think about this?

What happened to South Africa?

In South Africa, people's lives seem to be returning to normalcy.

According to the US CBS reporter in South Africa reported on the 18th, in Johannesburg, the largest city in South Africa, restaurants have returned to busyness, the streets are full of traffic, and the city is bustling.

Just two months ago, South Africa detected a variant of the new coronavirus for the first time from a case sample, which WHO subsequently named Omiljung. After the new strain spread in South Africa at an alarming rate, it was not long before South Africa became the "hardest hit area" of the global new crown.

Today, the Olmikron strain has become the dominant global epidemic strain, but South Africa has bypassed the inflection point and is heading to the end of the fourth wave of the epidemic. According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of new confirmed cases in South Africa in a single day has dropped from a peak of 37,875 on December 12 last year to 3,657.

Healthcare workers have the most say in the current state of the epidemic in South Africa. Six months ago, in the COVID-19 ward of a hospital in Gauteng, South Africa, nurse Justice Mangala worked with other paramedics to "wrestle" with delta strains. They also became exhausted as intensive care beds filled, oxygen ran out, and mortality skyrocketed.

Today, the Aumechjong strain has not left, but the situation is very different. With a second line of defense, vaccines, Mangara said, the number of deaths among the patients he cares for today can be counted with one hand. About half of the wards in the hospital are empty, few patients need oxygen, and the burden on medical staff is much lighter.

Shabir Madhi, a professor of vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa, is optimistic: "I think we have reached a turning point in this outbreak. I don't think we'll revisit the experience of South Africa's first three WAVES of COVID-19. ”

Salim Abdool Karim, director of the South African AIDS Research Centre, also told the Daily Maverick that South Africa is currently at the end of its fourth wave of COVID-19.

"We found that in each wave of the outbreak, the rate of rise and fall of cases was similar. For Omikron, the virus spread much faster and peaked faster than ever before, which is why it ended so fast. Karim said.

Britain and the United States also have a "low tide" trend

Recently, the epidemic in South Africa seems to have frequently spread good news.

According to Bloomberg reported on the 18th, a study in South Africa showed that the wave of infection in Omicron may reduce the severity of the epidemic in the future and accelerate the end of the epidemic.

The researchers say Omiljung appears to provide protection against the Delta strain. They sampled 23 people infected with Opmi kerong in November and December and found that while those infected with Delta were still at risk of contracting Omexjong, those who had been infected with Omiqueron would no longer be infected with Delta, especially those who had been vaccinated.

The researchers also found that the disease caused by Aumechjong appeared to be less severe.

Vaccinologist Madi said that South Africa's deaths from Omiljung accounted for only 5% of all COVID-19 deaths. Vaccination and previously high infection rates have boosted South Africa's collective immunity to covid-19 and have significantly reduced severe illness and mortality in the fourth wave of the outbreak.

The case in South Africa is not unique. There are indications that the Aumechjong wave in the UK also has a "low tide" trend.

According to official data released by the British government, the number of confirmed CASEs in the UK has dropped sharply in recent days, from more than 240,000 new cases in a single day on January 4 to 94,432 cases on January 17. Some British scientists are optimistic that in the near future, the new crown is expected to become an endemic disease in the UK.

Julian Hiscox, director of infection and global health at the University of Liverpool, told the BBC that it was almost over: "At least in the UK, we are on the verge of an end. I think in 2022, life will be back to what it was before the pandemic. Even if a new or old strain of mutation appears, it will be like a common cold for most people. ”

In the United States, while covid-19 confirmed, hospitalized, and fatal cases are still rising rapidly in most areas, the number of cases is falling rapidly in New York, where Omilton was the first to be hit hard.

New York Mayor Adams said on the 18th that the average single-day new cases in New York in 7 days have dropped from the peak of more than 40,000 to more than 20,000, and the number of hospitalizations has dropped from 6,500 on January 11 to 5,800 on January 16. "Let's be clear, we're winning," he said. ”

Experts say caution is still needed

Does the good news in South Africa portend hope for a global fight against the pandemic? Although many people are optimistic, some experts say that the fight against the epidemic still needs to be cautious.

Some experts noted that the situation in South Africa might not apply to other countries. First, South Africa has a younger population than developed countries. In addition, according to previous antibody surveys, about 70% to 80% of South African citizens may have been infected with the new crown virus, which means that they have gained some degree of immunity.

South Africa has paid a terrible price for that. CBS said that nearly 94,000 people in South Africa have died of COVID-19 since the outbreak, which is a considerable loss for a country with a population of less than 60 million.

Francois Venter, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa, said bluntly that what people need to keep in mind is that due to the highly transmissible nature of Omilon, the number of infections is much higher than ever. So even if Omilton is less toxic, so many infections mean it will cause more deaths.

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also urged caution. Fauci said on the 17th that whether Ormi Kerong will eventually ring the "death knell" of the global pandemic is still an unresolved question.

He said that while he hoped so, it was too early to predict that this would be the last wave of COVID-19, and there could still be new variants of the virus that could escape the previous immune response. He also said that even if Omilon becomes the "last variant of the new crown", it does not mean the complete end of the virus, and the new crown will still exist in society in the form of endemic diseases.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Shao Jing

Source: Author: Qiu Wenhan