Russian-Ukrainian relations continue to be tense, and the Nord Stream 2 project, which delivers natural gas from Russia to Germany, has once again become a bargaining chip for all parties.
Comprehensive foreign media reports, German Chancellor Scholz said on the 18th that if Russia invades Ukraine, Germany may stop the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project.
On January 18, local time, Scholz met with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg in Berlin. Reuters reported that as Scholz's government faces increasing pressure to take a more hawkish stance toward the Kremlin, Scholz said Germany might consider halting the Nord Stream-2 pipeline if Russia attacks Ukraine.
On January 18, local time, Scholz and Stoltenberg attended a press conference after talks Pictured from Reuters
At a press conference after the meeting with Stoltenberg, Scholtz, asked about the pipeline, said, "It is clear that if there is a military intervention in Ukraine, (Russia) has to pay a high price, everything must be included in the discussion."
Scholz has previously said that if Russia attacks Ukraine and Germany is open to sanctions, everything will be on the table, including the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. And some observers said he had also called the pipeline a private commercial project that should not be singled out for sanctions, a mixed signal.
"Nord Stream 2" became a chip for all parties
Nord Stream 2 is a pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine to transport Russian gas to Germany and other European countries, and it is estimated that it can transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. On September 10 last year, Gazprom announced the completion of pipeline laying work on the project, but this was actually the result of interference – the project was originally scheduled to be completed by the end of 2019 but postponed due to U.S. sanctions.
Although Nord Stream 2 has been completed, it has not yet been put into operation, because the premise of operation is to obtain approval from the German Federal Network Authority. It is reported that even if the qualification of the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas operator is certified, the European Commission will also review this, and the review time may be as long as 4 months.
On December 16 last year, Germany's Federal Network Authority said that the project certification work had not yet restarted, so the official operation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be delayed for at least a few months.
The United States has been trying to use obstruction of pipeline operations as a bargaining chip to threaten Russia. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman threatened Russia after the NATO-Russia Council meeting on the 12th, saying, "If Russia 'invades' Ukraine again, it will be difficult for us to see natural gas transported through this pipeline and it will be difficult to put it into use." ”
Russia, for its part, has explicitly opposed the U.S. operation. Tass said the Russian side has repeatedly stressed that Nord Stream 2 is a commercial project that is implemented with its European partners. Presidential Press Secretary Paiskov also reiterated on the 13th that it is extremely absurd to link Nord Stream 2 with tensions in Russia and Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also said after meeting with Belbark on the 18th that the opening of the pipeline will improve European energy security, and "trying to politicize this project" will be counterproductive.
Germany itself is divided on the project. According to the Financial Times on January 17, critics said the pipeline would greatly increase Europe's dependence on Russian gas. The center-left Social Democrats largely supported the pipeline, while the Greens opposed it.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the completed but not yet certified Nord Stream 2 would not be able to advance if Russia invaded its western neighbor. She repeatedly referred to an agreement reached between the United States and Germany last July that said That Berlin would impose energy sanctions on Moscow "if Russia tries to use energy as a weapon or take further aggressive action against Ukraine."
The SPD, which has traditionally tended to maintain friendly relations with Moscow, is even more ambivalent, insisting that Russian gas is extremely important to German industry. Previously, Scholz had refused to publicly consider sanctions on the project. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has said Nord Stream 2 "should not be drawn into this conflict." The SPD's secretary-general, Kevin Kühnert, has also said that international disputes are deliberately encouraged "in order to bury projects that have always been a thorn in the side of some".
Stefan Meister, an expert on Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), argues that these differences are "weakening Germany and the EU." "We see that the German government has not consolidated its position and ... Russian policy is still being pursued. ”
Scholz publicly stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, Germany may stop the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project, which may be a compromise in Scholz's debate.
Natural gas prices in Europe continue to rise
Over the past few months, european gas prices have continued to rise due to a variety of factors such as the pandemic and geopolitical situation, soaring to a record level of 182 euros per MWh on Christmas Eve last year.
The U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) reported on January 17 that if the crisis in Russia and Ukraine escalates, European gas prices, which soared to high levels last year, may soar further, surpassing the peak at the end of last year, according to research firm Capital Economics.
The report mentioned that in fact, the supply of natural gas from Russia has been lower than usual. According to the U.S. Investment Bank, gas imports from Russia to northwestern Europe fell by 38 percent between August and December last year compared to the same period in 2018. Europe's gas stocks are also below average, down 21 percent from the five-year average as of Jan. 12.
According to the Financial Times on January 17, some have hinted that Moscow is already weaponizing its gas exports. Fatih Birol, director general of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Jan. 12 that Russia was cutting its gas supply to Europe at a time of "heightened geopolitical tensions." He said Russia withheld at least a third of its natural gas it could deliver to Europe while depleting its storage facilities controlled on the continent to reinforce the impression of tight supply. Russia has repeatedly denied any supply manipulation.
According to Reuters local time on January 18, due to soaring natural gas prices, suppliers either failed or passed it on to customers, and the energy costs of millions of Europeans soared. Increased spending on heating, lighting or driving has strained the budgets of many households, shaking expectations of a consumer-led economic boom in the post-pandemic era.
In 2020, the average spending by eurozone households on electricity and gas was reported to be 1,200 euros. Bank of America analysts said the scarce supply of renewable energy could not offset the impact as geopolitical tensions pushed up gas prices, and that figure would rise to 1,850 euros this year.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.