Russia and Belarus "practice to repel external aggression" on the border, and US senators say Ukraine is "ready"

Source: Global Times

After the three security talks, tensions between Russia and Western countries have not eased, and both sides are making two-handed preparations for the development of the situation. On the 18th, Russian troops arrived in Belarus, and the two countries will hold the "Alliance Determination-2022" military exercise in February to repel external aggression. A day earlier, Britain said it had begun supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons to help Kiev defend against a "possible invasion" by Russia. On Monday, U.S. senators from both parties visited Kiev and declared that Ukraine, a country that had "withstood the test of war," was "ready." Tensions appear to be rising, and at this time, German Foreign Minister Berberk and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov are holding talks. Whether the two talks can resolve Europe's biggest crisis in nearly 30 years has raised concerns.

Russia and Belarus conduct military exercises on the border

According to the British "Guardian", Belarusian President Lukashenko said that the "Alliance Determination -2022" military exercise will be held near the border of Belarus near NATO member Poland and Lithuania and near the border near Ukraine. According to the Russian news agency and other media, the information released by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense shows that from February 10 to 20, the exercise will be carried out in two phases, involving 5 training grounds and 4 airports, including the redeployment and formation of troops in a short period of time, the organization and implementation of the protection and defense of important state and military facilities, and the protection of national airspace. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Fomin said on Tuesday that the two militaries would practice to repel external aggression. He stressed that Russia and Belarus are considering that, in order to ensure the national security of the Russian-Belarusian alliance, it is necessary to use the full potential of the military organizations of the two countries and regularly practice various options for the use of regional forces.

The Guardian said that videos on Belarusian social media and reports in Russian media showed that Russia transported a large number of weapons and military equipment, including tanks and short-range ballistic missiles, to Ukraine through state-owned railway companies. The British media believes that the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise may increase Western concerns about Russia's preparations to "invade" Ukraine. In response, Lukashenko said that the military exercise was a routine exercise agreed by him and Russian President Vladimir Putin last December. The Belarusian leader noted that the exercises were necessary because NATO had deployed troops near the border between Russia and Belarus. Lukashenko also said Ukraine was mobilizing a large number of "radical nationalists" against Russia.

In addition to the military exercises, the personnel changes of the Russian diplomatic service in Ukraine have also aroused concern in Western countries. According to the New York Times reported on the 17th, before Russia and Western countries held a series of security talks, Russia began to evacuate its embassy and consulate personnel in Ukraine. Some US officials also issued a statement saying that the information held by Washington indicates that the Russian government is ready to evacuate the families of Russian diplomats from the embassy in Ukraine. Western experts said that Russia's move may be to make western countries take Moscow's security initiative seriously, or it may be an attempt to show that Russia is brewing an "offensive." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded on the 18th that although Ukrainian militants have repeatedly provoked, the Russian diplomatic agency in Ukraine is still operating normally.

The United States, Britain and Canada provide support to Ukraine

Will Russia really attack Ukraine? In fact, russian troops are assembling near the Ukrainian border as fast as Pentagon officials expected a month ago, the New York Times said. The U.S. Department of Defense estimated at the time that Russia would deploy 100,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, but that number is only about 77,000.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not yet taken place, but the pace of Western troops sending troops to Ukraine has begun. According to Canadian media reports, Canada sent 200 military personnel to Ukraine to help train local personnel. Canadian sources revealed that Canada has also sent special operations force soldiers to Ukraine as part of NATO's action to curb "Russian aggression." Reuters reported that British Defence Secretary Wallace said that britain had delivered the first batch of light anti-armor defense weapon systems to Ukraine on Monday, and the British side would provide training to Ukrainian personnel. Wallace stressed that these are not strategic weapons and do not pose a threat to Russia, but will be part of kiev's defense mechanisms.

In addition to Britain and Canada, the United States also sent 7 bipartisan senators to Kiev to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Murphy, a Senator and Democrat in Connecticut, said after the meeting that the Ukrainian side asked the United States for more support during the talks. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry told CNN that he hoped the US delegation would "strongly" propose to Congress to strengthen sanctions against Russia. Two people familiar with the matter also revealed that CIA Director Burns visited Kiev last Wednesday to meet with Zelenskiy, and the two assessed the risks currently facing Ukraine. The CIA generally does not disclose the itinerary of the agency's head, and the people familiar with the matter broke the news to show Washington's support for Kiev.

The Russian and German foreign ministers talked at a sensitive moment

While both Russia and Western countries were making military preparations for the development, the Russian and German foreign ministers held talks in Moscow on the 18th. This is the first visit to Russia by German Foreign Minister Berberk since taking office, and she also paid a visit to Ukraine on the 17th. Deutsche Presse said the visit was a test for Belburk. The Guardian commented that continental Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States are cautiously following the visit of the German foreign minister because of signs that the German government may resume its traditional role of seeking an independent dialogue with Russia rather than taking a hard line.

Lavrov infographic. Image source Visual China

Russia's security initiative and the Ukrainian issue are the focus of discussions between the Russian and German foreign ministers. According to the Russian News Agency reported on the 18th, the Russian and German foreign ministers said after the talks that although the two countries have differences on issues such as the "Normandy model" talks, the bilateral relations between Russia and Germany are very important to each other. Lavrov also said it was unacceptable to see Russia as a party to the conflict in the Eastern Region. He stressed that the Russian side is waiting for the response of Western countries to the Russian security initiative in order to continue negotiations.

US Secretary of State Blinken and Lavrov discussed the results of previous security talks on the 17th. Nato Secretary-General said on the 18th that Russia and NATO member states have been invited to hold new talks. According to a German news television report on the 17th, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrelli said that the EU agreed to revise the European security architecture, but should change the negotiation agenda and increase the number of participants in the negotiations. Many things have changed since the 1970s, he said, and that modifying the European security architecture is not a "crazy idea" but an opportunity to find compromises from all sides. Borrelli said the EU Foreign Ministers' Council meeting will be held on January 24 and EU countries will present their own opinions to prepare a complete proposal for the security architecture. However, Borrelli stressed that Russia's request to ban Eastern European countries such as Ukraine from joining NATO is unacceptable.