If Russia really "invades" Ukraine, what will it bring to the world pattern?

White House Spokesman Psaki

Just after the first round of negotiations between Russia and the United States, NATO and the OSCE platform was completed, U.S. diplomats suddenly quoted intelligence sources as saying that Russia was trying to launch provocations in eastern Ukraine and create a pretext for invading Ukraine.

White House spokesman Psaki told reporters on Friday, "The intelligence we have received shows that Russia has pre-deployed a group of agents to carry out operations in eastern Ukraine." Trained in urban warfare, these agents use explosives to create sabotage, pretending to deal with Russia's own proxy forces. ”

Psaki also pointed out that Russia has widely published fake news on online social media, accusing Ukraine of human rights abuses and the West provoking tensions in Ukraine to justify Russian intervention and create divisions in Ukraine.

The United States believes that the intelligence it has is very reliable, and specifically points out that these agents are made up of intelligence, military and security personnel, and Sullivan, the assistant for national security affairs, stressed, "We read this script in 2014, and they are going to use the same script this time." ”

The fall of Ukraine's pro-Russian regime in early 2014 triggered Russia's invasion of Crimea, and an armed rebellion against the central government erupted in eastern Ukraine, a crisis that continues to this day.

Inspired by the change in the competitive tactics of the US Biden administration in seeking to unite with secondary strategic opponents and focus on dealing with the number one strategic opponent, especially the initiation of the normalization process of US-Russian relations and the continuation of the high-level dialogue on strategic security and cyber security, the Putin administration in Russia has expanded its appetite, seized the opportunity to raise diplomatic demands, and proposed a draft security guarantee treaty, trying to rely on its position as a key variable in great power competition. The U.S.-led West was forced to agree to Moscow's proposal to ensure its strategic security as its core and to make full control of the former Soviet Union's circle of influence and the revival of historical glory a potential goal.

To this end, a highly sensitive tension on the Ukrainian border between Europe and NATO has been created, and 100,000 troops have been deployed to launch a feint offensive posture to enhance Russia's diplomatic negotiating position and superiority.

After the internal crisis in Kazakhstan, the Putin administration resolutely responded to the request of the president of the country and sent troops to help quell its internal turmoil, further increasing its diplomatic leverage in the negotiations on the three platforms.

However, the Putin authorities did not achieve considerable results in the first round of negotiations according to their best intentions, and the Biden authorities responded to Moscow's eagerness with "dragging words" and did the opposite, proposing their own negotiation plan to grasp the initiative and control of the negotiations.

Moscow, of course, flatly denies it, as opposed to denying that the military deployment on ukraine's borders has an attempt to "invade." From the Klein Palace, the Russian Foreign Ministry to the Russian Embassy in the United States have sent the same signal: the United States is using this to launch an information war against Russia, which is a move to pressure Russia while the negotiations on the "three platforms" are underway.

However, we believe that under the current situation that the negotiations on the "three platforms" have just been completed but have basically failed, and the high expectations of Moscow have been poured with a basin of cold water, Russia has adopted the "script" routine of 2014, which is already familiar to the West, instructing agents to engage in sabotage activities with specific purposes, as well as more measures, including media reports of possible destruction of Ukraine's network system, which are completely possible, aimed at increasing the tension and feint posture it has created on the Ukrainian border, and counter-exerting pressure on the United States and the West. Urge them to give serious consideration to the safeguards treaty they have initiated.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov's remarks may have revealed a "chance": Russian military experts have presented Military Options to President Vladimir Putin to come in handy when the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, but diplomacy still needs to be tried.

It is both a testament to the foregoing and a naked threat.

Moscow's appetite is large, and the United States and NATO have their own bottom lines that must be adhered to, and as the negotiations officially begin, both sides want to maximize their goals and minimize corresponding concessions and compromises, and spare no effort to threaten and pressure each other by any means.

The United States and NATO are no different from Moscow.

For example, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Eu High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrelli pointed out after telephone talks that Europe and the United States have recently maintained high-level close cooperation on the Ukraine incident, and the two sides have formed a strong, clear and unified transatlantic front.

Sullivan stressed that once the "situation in Ukraine escalates", the imposition of sanctions on Russia is only part of the tools available, and the United States has other tools.

U.S. Republican Senator Rubio has even proposed a new bill to impose sanctions on Russia's top leadership, especially Putin himself, in the face of a deteriorating situation in Ukraine.

If the Putin authorities really act on the "invasion" of Ukraine as expected by US intelligence services, it will largely affect the current world pattern.

First of all, this means that the failure of the Biden authorities' strategy to win over Moscow and a certain degree of "breaking the situation" in Russian-US relations will strengthen the unity and cooperation of the primary and secondary opponents of the United States, and the Russian side will also attract unprecedented severe sanctions and other measures from the United States, the European Union to NATO and the entire Western world, which, according to the assessment of the United States, may ruin Russia's development prospects.

In the case of a thorough confrontation between Russia and the United States and between Russia and the West, the war may expand to an unpredictable degree, which will seriously undermine the strategic security of Russia itself and Europe, and Russia's relations with the United States and NATO and the entire West will re-enter a vicious circle, and not only Russia's own development and stability will be greatly affected, but also the UNITED States' strategic layout for the world and the strategic strategy of great power competition that has been launched will also be disrupted.

At the same time, the deterioration of the situation will seriously test the willingness and ability of the superpower to lead the world and intervene in conflicts, and will also have a crucial impact on its strategic vision in the Indo-Pacific region, if it can resolutely curb Russia's military "invasion" and still maintain the fundamental credibility of its global leaders, but the breakdown of the US-Russia relationship will lead to unimaginable serious consequences, including the infinite expansion of war in extreme cases.

On the contrary, if the strength of U.S. measures is not strong enough to contain Russia, it will further "bankrupt" Washington's international credibility damaged after the "hasty withdrawal" in Afghanistan, and its "Indo-Pacific strategy" and its main goal: strategic competition with its primary adversaries, will not be able to win the trust of regional allies and partners.

In short, this will lead to a lose-lose outcome for Russia and the United States, and the main beneficiary may be America's primary adversary: Russia has substantially, comprehensively, and fiercely dragged the superpower in Europe and shifted the center of confrontation and conflict from the Indo-Pacific to Europe.

However, this is obviously not in line with the impression left by the current president of Russia, who is unlikely to do what he can do to make wedding clothes and make money for people.

So the ultimate viable path is still to close this "epic deal" at the negotiating table, but it is likely that it will not happen overnight. Judging from the willingness of both the United States and Russia to continue to maintain negotiations, it is more certain that all this is just a pressure game played by both sides in this difficult negotiation process.

Not only did Ryabkov claim that negotiations still needed to be advanced, but both the United States and Russia announced to the world through diplomacy their sincerity in resolving the issue through negotiations. Blinken stressed that the United States is preparing a formal written response to the draft security treaty proposed by Russia.

And we'll be patient and we'll see!