Author/Baked bun under the stars
Edit/Spinach Starry Sky
Typography/Fried liver under the stars
Stepping into 2022, the sharp correction of the new energy track has made many investors complain. Investors must take the lead in the crisis and start a new game in the midst of change.
According to the author's observation, there is such a market segment, which is entering the public's field of vision and is gradually being accepted, it is the power exchange market. This is not, the Ningde era (300750) is also eager to try, not only in the upstream of lithium battery, but also to expand the product category, want to officially enter the vehicle-electricity separation of the power exchange market, a piece of the pie.
Interface News
In addition, at the end of last year, Hello Travel announced a strategic cooperation with SF Tongcheng, and the two sides will work together to build a two-wheel electric vehicle power exchange in the future. GCL Energy (002015) also explores the application scenario of power exchange mode with new energy players in the light orange era.
Everything seems to tell us that the power exchange market is expected to become the most beautiful landscape of this year's new energy track. But is that really the case? What structural opportunities in this market deserve our attention?
First, the power exchange mode, where is the good?
When the opportunity of the industry comes, it is necessary to use the pot connection, not the needle top.
First of all, under the simple science popularization, the power exchange mode refers to the centralized storage of the battery through the centralized charging station, centralized charging, and unified distribution. To put it bluntly, it means that after your car runs out of power, when it comes to changing the power station, the operator does not send you charcoal (charging), but directly gives you a salary (replacement battery).
Swap mode
The emergence of the power exchange model is not a day or two, Israel's Better Place company became the world's first company to engage in the operation of new energy vehicle power exchange mode in 2007. The company has developed a complete set of chassis power exchange technology.
It always takes time for new things to be accepted by the masses. Better Place achieved its debut as its peak. Due to the high battery maintenance costs, limited scale of new energy vehicles, and large initial investment (each substation costs $500,000), Better Place only has a real customer of Renault, and it is difficult to achieve profitability. Eventually, on the sixth anniversary of the company's founding, the company declared bankruptcy.
Better Place
Monofilaments do not form lines, and lone trees do not form forests. The healthy development of a track is inseparable from the concerted efforts and mutual cooperation of players in the industrial chain. Single-point breakthroughs, the results are often not satisfactory.
Years later, with the winds of new energy, the power exchange mode made a comeback. So this time, what catalyzed the development of the industry? The author believes that there are the following reasons:
1. Policy side. The policy is the baton guiding the development of the industry, and the power exchange industry ushered in the dividend period of the policy in the second half of 2020, and the introduction of all-round policies such as subsidies and the formulation of industry standards was introduced, and the top level of the industry was designed to lay a rammed foundation. It should be known that one of the important factors that previously restricted the development of the power exchange mode was that the standard of the battery was not uniform (more than 100 battery models). In the second half of 2021, the temple has carried out the application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode.
Policies related to power exchange mode (public information collation)
The author believes that the industry of power exchange does not need a hundred flowers, but needs a standard to go to the world.
2. Consumer side. Whether the power exchange mode can be achieved or not ultimately depends on whether the consumer pays the bill. And cost is the key factor that restricts its payment. The power exchange mode can reduce the cost of consumption, which is mainly reflected in the purchase cost and the cost of use. From the perspective of purchase cost, some car companies (such as Weilai) have launched a model of separate sales of vehicles and electricity, and users can choose to buy only naked cars when buying electric vehicles, the cost can be reduced by more than 70,000, and it is also competitive compared with fuel vehicles. From the perspective of use cost, the current power exchange mode (electricity fee + service fee) is still higher than the charging mode (electricity bill). However, the research institute has given a set of calculations, measured from the kilometer dimension, the comprehensive total cost of the power exchange mode is lower than the charging mode.
Swap mode and charge mode cost comparison
3. Industry side. The future of new energy vehicles is the trend of the general trend of the story I do not want to tell more. To make a simple market calculation, if in 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 7.8 million, and the penetration rate of power replacement models can exceed 30%, more than 20,000 power stations will need to be built to meet the demand for power exchanges, and the scale of the operating market will exceed 250 billion.
Estimation of the market size of the substation operation
Second, where are the opportunities in the industrial chain?
Bull markets buy indices, bear markets buy individual stocks. In the first part, I discuss in more detail the catalysts for the development of power exchange modes. Now let's take off the coat of the power exchange mode and see the situation of the industrial chain.
Upstream is the battery company and the manufacturer of power exchange equipment, which are responsible for providing power batteries and substation equipment corresponding to the scope of application. Midstream is a substation operator and battery asset company (mainly undertaking battery costs and obtaining profit returns through battery life management). Downstream is an all-encompassing application scenario (including private cars, taxis, buses, etc.), and the current demand for power exchange mode by B-end customers is relatively strong.
Power exchange mode industrial chain
After carefully combing each link of the industrial chain, the author is more optimistic about the upstream power exchange equipment field. A complete substation requires a series of equipment such as power battery reserves, charging, testing, and maintenance. The development of substations is moving towards modular and efficient intensive substations.
It is understood that the substation generally adopts the turnkey model, that is, the supplier provides equipment, installation and construction of a complete set of solutions. Among the main components of the substation, the value content of the robotic arm is the highest, and it is also the key equipment for the substation to achieve reliable and accurate power exchange.
Therefore, the author is more looking forward to the development prospects of the replacement station manipulator arm with high industry barriers and large value space.
Third, power exchange and energy storage are inextricably linked
After introducing the prospects and industrial chain of the power exchange mode, the author would like to say that in fact, the power exchange mode is a kind of energy storage. The power battery operating in the substation can balance the peak-valley fluctuations of the power generation system to a certain extent by adjusting the charging and discharging time and realizing the function of energy storage (peak shaving and valley filling).
This is also the essence of the power exchange mode and the current popular fast charging mode is different, but also one of the important factors for the power exchange mode to achieve economy.
Both cost advantages and reducing the load of the grid, power exchange mode, why not enjoy it?
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.