Recently, went to a trip to the postal market, the popularity of the postal market seems to have warmed up a little, the original recent hot new mail new coin centralized issuance, attracted some investors' attention. I talked about the market with my friends in the mail merchant, and during the conversation, I vaguely found that everyone's mentality was changing.
Everyone is no longer worried about the decline in the market, but is looking forward to the decline of the market. This is strange, the new mail has fallen to this step of the field, and still look forward to falling, afraid of being disappointed and saying the opposite, right?
One understanding is really not. They said that twenty years ago, the new post was discounted by 20%, and the 5.4 yuan denomination stamp sold for 90 cents and 5 cents; fifteen years ago, the small plates of "Arch Bridge" and "Lilies" in 2003 were lower than the par value and no one wanted it, and finally they were torn into sets of tickets and sold in the annals; thirteen years ago, the three rounds of zodiac "rats" and "pigs" large plates were lower than the par value and no one cared... After the Beijing Olympic Games, these philatelic products have risen exponentially, making the main force earn a lot of money. Everyone thinks that there is no crazy surge in the ultra-low price at that time? How can you start the market without huge profits?!
Nowadays, the discount rate of new mail is at least about 40% off the par value, and there is still a distance from the 20% discount; the three or four rounds of zodiac versions are mostly higher than the par value, so the post merchant believes that the current new mail price is better if it falls some more, because only the ultra-low price is likely to attract the main force to pull the market. Everyone firmly believes that the main force of the new post will never be able to sit on the mountain and eat the sky, and it will definitely launch the market, but the time is not ripe enough.
The key question is, if The new post really fell to the bottom price of more than a decade ago, will there be a main force to launch the market?
Today's international prices are soaring, US dollar bills are issued more, what impact will international inflation have on China's economy? The uncertainty of the epidemic objectively exists, investment channels are fewer, and idle funds have nowhere to invest, can the postal market become the focus of attention? At this point, someone will immediately stand up, just like the previous few big markets said before the emergence of the past few big markets: "Don't dream, there will be no more big markets in the postal market." ”
In fact, as long as the market starts, both young and old will flock to it, just like the online commemorative coin, the fly head small profit has made people of all ages scramble, stamps are no longer good, but also in the post-60s, post-70s and post-80s groups have been crazy several times, how can there be no market inference! Rising prices, bank rate cuts, monetary easing, these are all key positive factors.
We can not talk about the charm of collecting art today, and the reason for maintaining value against inflation alone is enough to make the postal market not pessimistic in the future.
It turned out that the new mail fell in the hope of expanding the future upward space. The mentality of going from being afraid of falling to hoping for a fall is actually a strategy of retreating into progress, the confidence to fight a protracted war, and the inevitable opposite of the extreme.
In the period of economic deflation, it is the dormant stage of accumulating energy, deflation will end sooner or later, and the nightmare must wake up in the morning.
Source: Bi's Philatelics