Xing Yanjun said
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From 2019 to 2025, the scale of China's automotive IGBT market will increase from 15.5 billion yuan to 21 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 5.2%. At present, local enterprises such as BYD Semiconductor, Star Semiconductor and CRRC Times Electric are expanding production in the new energy vehicle IGBT and entering the top ten in the domestic vehicle regulation IGBT market in 2020.
Source: Guojin Securities Author: Luo Lu
First, electrification is accelerating, high-voltage integration and digitalization are the general trend
The automotive industry "electrification - networking - intelligent" trilogy, electrification is the foundation. As an important part of the electrification of the power side, vehicle electrification needs to rely on digital technology to rationally plan the whole life cycle of electric vehicles and achieve the efficient use of electric energy. ICT technology and the automotive industry are undergoing deep integration, high-voltage integration and digitalization are currently two important directions in the field of electric vehicles.
The three-electric system is the core part of distinguishing electric vehicles from fuel vehicles. We estimate that the market size of the electric vehicle triple electric system will reach $273.4 billion by 2025 and $755.6 billion by 2030. Among them, the CAGR of battery, motor and electronic control for ten years is 28%, 27% and 16% respectively.
1.1 Electrification accelerated, and the market scale of the three-electric system expanded rapidly
Electrification is accelerating, and the growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 exceeds expectations. Although the domestic new energy vehicle subsidy in 2021 was reduced by 20% compared with 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles still achieved substantial growth, with sales of 2.81 million units from January to November, an increase of 190% year-on-year. Globally, global passenger car sales in 2020 were 53.59 million units, down 6% year-on-year, but electric vehicle sales reached 3.21 million units, with a penetration rate of 6%, an increase of 10% year-on-year.
China released the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which aims to account for 20% of the total sales of electric vehicles in 2025. On August 5, 2021, the U.S. government signed an executive order aiming to account for 50% of new energy vehicle sales in 2030. In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China and Europe will be close to 15%, and the growth of global new energy vehicles will far exceed expectations, and it is expected to achieve the set goal ahead of schedule. We expect that in 2025 and 2030, the proportion of electric vehicle sales is expected to reach 25% and 60%, corresponding to 17.91 million and 55.69 million electric vehicle sales, with a CAGR of 33%.
The core incremental components of intelligent electric vehicles are mainly "three electric systems", and the battery system accounts for nearly 40% of the total vehicle cost. "Three electric system" refers to the battery, motor and electronic control of the three parts, battery refers to the battery and battery management system BMS, etc., motor refers to the motor and motor controller MCU, etc., electronic control refers to the vehicle DC / DC converter, vehicle charger, etc., accounting for 50% of the total cost of electric vehicles. According to industry research, at present, batteries, motors, and electronic control systems account for about 76%, 13%, and 11% of the cost of the "three electric systems", that is, 38%, 6.5%, and 5.5% of the cost of the vehicle.
Assuming that the average selling price of bicycles is 53,000 US dollars and the gross profit margin is 20%, based on the proportion of each component of the three-electric system in the whole vehicle, we predict that from 2020 to 2030, the market size of electric vehicles will increase from 64.6 billion US dollars to 755.6 billion US dollars, of which batteries, motors, and electronic controls will account for 78%, 13% and 9% respectively.
1.2 Huawei Digital Energy aims at energy digitalization
Huawei's digital energy carries the hope of the company's second take-off, which is the fifth S curve created by Huawei. Huawei Digital Energy integrates ICT technology with power electronics technology, integrates innovations such as watt technology, thermal technology, energy storage technology, cloud and AI technology, and focuses on clean power generation, transportation electrification, green ICT infrastructure, industrial and building energy conservation, intelligent power distribution, and energy storage, etc., to accelerate energy digitalization and realize bit management watts.
As an important part of the electrification of the power side, vehicle electrification needs to rely on digital technology to rationally plan the whole life cycle of electric vehicles and achieve the efficient use of electric energy. Globally, carbon emissions from the transportation industry account for about a quarter of energy-related carbon emissions, and in 2020, the total carbon emissions of the entire industrial chain of passenger cars in China will be about 670 million tons, of which 74% of the carbon emissions come from the use of automobiles and 26% of the carbon emissions from the upstream industrial chain manufacturing links.
Huawei gives full play to the advantages of integration capabilities and ICT technology, and the intelligent electric power supported by the cloud is laid out on and off the car. Huawei integrates leading power electronics, communications, and big data technologies into the electric vehicle triple-electric system, resulting in a "minimalist" all-in-one electric drive system on the vehicle, a full-stack high-voltage charging and replacement network solution that integrates and collaborates "people-vehicle-pile-road-network" under the car, and intelligent management of the whole life cycle of the battery in the cloud and three-power fault prediction, accelerating the development of electrification in the automotive industry.
Huawei positions Tier1 suppliers, connects car companies and upstream equipment manufacturers, and opens up the whole scenario of "device-system-vehicle". According to the public information of listed companies, Huawei cooperates with 27 listed companies in the field of intelligent electric vehicles, of which 10 companies upstream provide raw materials and components for the three-electric system; cooperate with 8 companies in the fields of power battery loading, on-board energy storage, and battery testing; the layout of charging piles and new energy vehicle charging is Easystar and Trident; and in the downstream of the industrial chain, 5 car companies release new models, with Huawei's intelligent vehicle platform solutions.
Huawei's "HI+Tier1" two supplier models empower car companies and create an automotive ecosystem. Under the HuaweiInside model, Huawei supports car companies in building their high-end smart car sub-brands and releasing a series of models equipped with Huawei's full-stack smart car solutions, such as the joint Xiaokang co-operation to build Cyrus SF5 and AITO Q&A5, the development of the Polar Fox Alpha SHI version with Beiqi Blue Valley, and the future mass production of Avita and GAC Aeon. Under the traditional Tier1 supplier model, Huawei provides incremental components for smart electric vehicles to car companies, and the Changan CS95 electric version is equipped with Huawei's dual-motor system.
Second, the Matthew effect of the power battery is obvious, and the cloudification of the BMS system is a new entry point in the market
Power battery domestic enterprises are in a leading position, the market pattern is stable, the future more opportunities are to use battery usage data to integrate BMS on the car.
2.1 The power battery market pattern is established, and cloud + AI plus BMS is the future development direction
The cost and performance of power batteries are the key to success, the current market concentration continues to increase, and the installed capacity of domestic manufacturers is in a leading position in the world. According to insightSLICE, the global power battery market size is expected to reach $82.3 billion by 2030. In 2020, the installed capacity of power batteries is 137GWh, and the top ten manufacturers account for more than 90%; the proportion of CR5 enterprises increases from 68% in 2018 to 81% in 2021, and the market Matthew effect is significant and the concentration trend will continue to expand. From 2020 to 2021, the total proportion of Chinese enterprises CATL, BYD, Envision AESC, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and AVIC Lithium Battery increased from 36.7% to 44.4%.
BMS can optimize battery performance, improve cruising range, and integrate battery fast charging, use monitoring and safety detection. BMS controls the functioning of the battery by estimating battery charge and detecting the state of use, and is the bridge between power batteries and electric vehicles. At the same time, the BMS and the vehicle system exchange information to solve the safety and service life of the lithium battery, strengthen the active balanced thermal management, and improve the safety of the vehicle power system in addition to strengthening the cell module and other self-design. In 2020, the global BMS output value will exceed 6 billion US dollars, of which the new energy vehicle BMS market size accounts for about 55%, the market size is 3.3 billion US dollars, and it is expected to reach 13.4 billion US dollars in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.6%. By region, the market size of the Chinese market in 2020 is 1.33 billion US dollars, accounting for about 40% of the world, and it is expected to reach 5.8 billion US dollars in 2027, and the global proportion will reach 43.23%.
2.2 Huawei builds a "terminal + cloud + AI" collaborative BMS cloud platform, and "Star Flash Technology" empowers wireless BMS
Huawei AIBMS combines big data and AI technology to identify battery safety risks in advance and warn them. The end cloud battery management system is composed of a battery control unit (BCU), a battery sampling unit (BMU) and a cloud BMS, and supports a battery system of 0~800V. Establish an accurate battery model, integrate a variety of algorithms, improve the accuracy of SOC estimation, and realize the traceability of battery life cycle data in the cloud twin system. The on-board charging system integrates on-board charger (OBC) and voltage converter (DC/DC), power distribution unit (PDU) optional integration, and a series of 7kW and 11kW products.
Huawei gives full play to the advantages of ICT technology, and at the same time, the industrial chain layout makes up for the shortcomings of battery pack detection. At the technical level, Huawei BMS first cleans and deduplications the data, builds high-sensitivity characteristics related to battery failures, and forms an algorithm model that conforms to the thermal runaway faults of batteries; in the industrial chain, Huawei not only connects battery companies such as Cataline Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, but also cooperates with Nebulas to make up for the shortcomings of lithium battery pack detection and packaging technology. At present, Huawei's AIBMS cloud platform system has accessed more than 100,000 new energy vehicle data, successfully warned of 10+ battery thermal runaway faults, and realized the early processing of some high-risk vehicles. The large sample size can further promote the continuous optimization iteration of the thermal runaway model.
Star Flash technology redefines in-vehicle short-range wireless communication technology, with low latency, high reliability, and accurate synchronization that surpass Bluetooth and WiFi connections. The Star Flash Alliance was established in September 2020, positioned as "promoting the innovation and industrial ecology of new wireless short-distance communication technology", and currently has more than 140 member units, covering the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The top applications of Star Flash technology in the field of smart cars include: wireless BMS, immersive vehicle sound field & noise reduction, 360 panoramic surround view, wireless interactive screen projection, internal wireless atmosphere lights, etc. Among them, wireless BMS can realize full-life cycle detection, improve the safety performance of power batteries, and support standardized solutions from module level to cell level detection.
2.3 The participation of battery companies and automakers in the BMS market has increased
The participants in the domestic BMS market are mainly battery factories and vehicle manufacturers, which are carried out in the form of independent research and development or cooperative development with BMS suppliers. BYD, Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, AVIC Lithium Battery and other domestic power battery leaders mostly use the "BMSPACK" mode layout from the battery cell to the battery pack a full set of core technologies, the battery pack and BMS supporting the provision. The BMS market is closely related to the sales of supporting vehicles, Huating Power is backed by Hongguang MiniEV, Neusoft Ruichi installed GAC Aean, Tesla entered the BMS, with vehicle sales, all of which achieved a significant expansion in market share. The main driving force of the BMS market comes from the development of the battery industry chain, and the companies that are expected to rush out have two major characteristics, one is the leading battery technology, and the other is the strong momentum of model sales.
Third, under the trend of high-voltage integration, there are large opportunities for localization of core components
The technical upgrading of electric drive systems and the replacement of power module materials are major opportunities for localization. The cost pressure brought by the subsidy of new energy vehicles to the OEMs will be transmitted to the upstream electric drive electronic control manufacturers, and the integration of components is an effective way to reduce costs, reduce weight, increase efficiency, and improve power density; high-voltage DC is the main way to shorten charging time and improve user experience. The evolution trend of high-power and high-voltage platforms integrated with components requires the thermal management system on the vehicle to change from water cooling to refrigerant and oil cooling; silicon carbide power devices are expected to replace silicon-based IGBTs, support the voltage platform from 400V to 800V, and enter the stage of large-scale mass production.
3.1 The integration of electric drive system and the development of high voltage force the heat management system to upgrade
The market volume and price of new energy vehicle drive motors have risen together, and the advantages of all-in-one electric drive space, weight and energy consumption are significant, and the market penetration is more than 40%. In 2020, the installed capacity of drive motors for new energy vehicles in China will be 1.463 million units, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year, and it is expected to reach 2.983 million units in 2021. From the perspective of market size, the market size in 2020 is 7.464 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 37.903 billion yuan in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 37%. Through the integrated design of the motor, electronic control and deceleration architecture, the all-in-one system makes the overall structure tend to be compact, which can save the space of the motor system, reduce the weight, shorten the power transmission path, and finally reduce the energy consumption of the system and improve the mileage of the whole vehicle. At present, the proportion of all-in-one integrated systems in the entire drive motor has exceeded 40%.
Automotive electric intelligence drives the MCU market demand, and the market is expected to grow by 23% in 2021. MCUs are mainly used in motor controllers, power systems, body control, BMS and in-vehicle infotainment systems. According to ICInsights, 32-bitMCU prices will rise 13% to $0.72 in 2021, and the overall MCU market size will be $7.6 billion in 2021, up 23% year-on-year.
The increase in power density has forced the thermal management system to upgrade, and it is expected to achieve domestic substitution under technical iteration. The vehicle thermal management system is from simple to complex, and the cost is increased from about 2,000 yuan (traditional fuel models) to about 6,000 yuan (new energy models). With the increase in the coupling degree of power devices, the original component structure changes greatly. The "three-electric system" of electric vehicles has high heat dissipation requirements under high voltage and current, and the role of the traditional water cooling system will be greatly reduced, and it is necessary to turn to double-sided water cooling and oil cooling with higher technical barriers. In 2020, the global new energy vehicle thermal management market will be about 20 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 99 billion yuan in 2025, of which the domestic market is 40.1 billion yuan, accounting for more than 40%.
Guided by the needs of car companies, Huawei launched the all-in-one electric drive system DriveONE. The system is the industry's first high-voltage all-in-one powertrain, integrating MCU micro-control unit, motor, reducer, DC/DC converter, OBC vehicle charger, PDU power distribution unit, BCU battery control unit seven major components, the mechanical parts and power components are deeply coupled, charging 10 minutes can last 200km.
At present, the peak power density has reached 3kW/kg, which is the highest level in the industry. In response to the local overheating caused by hyperconvergence, Huawei uses intelligent oil cooling technology to reduce the average peak temperature of the windings by 30°C through a unique oil channel design. The fusion of main power components eliminates the conduction interference between the original separated components, greatly reduces the space radiation of the whole vehicle, directly improves the one-time pass rate of the EMC test of the whole vehicle, and can reduce the certification and time to market of the car company. Compared with the 3+3 model, the all-in-one modular platform can significantly improve the reuse rate of parts, reduce procurement and manufacturing costs and establish unified quality standards. In addition, DriveONE can also realize end-cloud collaboration and control unification based on HUAWEI CLOUD and AI technology, and the three-tier platform architecture of electrified digital development platform, hardware platform, and software platform can greatly improve development efficiency and help car companies improve product competitiveness through differentiation.
The drive motor market is mainly composed of vehicle companies and third-party motor companies, and the market is relatively fragmented. In 2020, BYD, Tesla and Founder Motor ranked in the top three market shares, with 13.2%, 9.9% and 6.7% respectively. Among the top ten enterprises, the total market share of drive motors of vehicle companies is 34.3%, and the market share of third-party independent motor companies is 28.1%.
At present, the three-in-one electric drive market is still in the oligopoly stage, and the collaborative development of the all-in-one system is difficult, and the future market share will be concentrated to the automakers. In 2020, Tesla, BYD, Azura Power and Nidec together accounted for 82.1% of total sales, and in the future, with the official mass production of Huawei's three-in-one system equipped with Dongfeng Xilis SF5 in 2021, the competition in the three-in-one electric drive system market will be more intense. We summarize that the all-in-one electric drive market participants are divided into two categories: the first category, car companies directly layout integrated electric drive assembly products and accelerate their industrialization applications; the second type, traditional motor, electronic control, transmission enterprises, industrial integration, among the tier0.5 suppliers. The service life of each component of the all-in-one system is different, which makes it difficult to develop technology and requires multiple rounds of testing. However, at this stage, the supply chain model is generally designed by suppliers, manufactured and tested by OEMs, and it is difficult for OEMs and suppliers to develop parts collaboratively, and the design and quality problems in the integration process are still a huge challenge for OEMs and suppliers, so we believe that the focus of the future all-in-one electric drive system will shift to OEMs.
The Matthew effect is obvious under the high barriers of the MCU market, and in the overall market shortage environment, domestic manufacturers usher in localization opportunities. Due to the high requirements for product stability and motor control algorithms, the MCU market is mainly monopolized by foreign leaders such as Renesas and NXP, and the total market share of the top four manufacturers is close to 80%. Domestic MCU manufacturers started late, and Gigabit Innovation, Xinwangwei, BYD, Jiefa Technology, etc. are also actively laying out vehicle-grade products. At present, domestic MCUs have been installed and applied in lighting, cooling systems, etc., and are less used in more complex fields such as power control and ADAS.
In the traditional thermal management system market, traditional foreign-funded leading enterprises still occupy a dominant position in the supply of primary system integration by virtue of their profound technical accumulation and customer resources. Denso of Japan, MAHLE of Germany, Valeo of France, and Han Ang of South Korea account for more than 50% of the market share, and domestic suppliers supply system components.
In the new round of technology iteration, the decline of domestic subsidies has led to an increase in the demand for low-cost parts by car companies, and domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve overtaking in curves. Domestic manufacturers represented by Sanhua Intelligent Control, Yinlun Shares, and Aotejia are expected to quickly support domestic new energy automobile enterprises in the future by virtue of rapid response, cost control and geographical advantages. On April 18, 2021, Huawei released TMS2.0, a thermal management solution for intelligent vehicles, which will be mass-produced in 2022, which has a higher integration level than the TMS1.0 version already installed in baic's Jihu models, achieving three major improvements in energy efficiency, calibration efficiency, and experience.
3.2 Charging infrastructure to strengthen the construction of "pile-road-network", platform high voltage trend to meet the needs of fast charging
The number of charging piles in the world is rising rapidly, and the high-power fast charging network is leading the growth. According to IEA data, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities worldwide in 2020 is 9.5 million, of which 2.5 million are public charging facilities. It is conservatively expected that by 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities worldwide will increase to about 50 million, including about 10 million public charging facilities. From 2020 to 2025, the charging voltage of passenger cars will be upgraded from 500V to 800V, and the charging power will be from 60kW to 350kW, even if the battery capacity of electric vehicles is upgraded from 60 kWh to 100 kWh, the time for full charge will be shortened from about 1 hour to 10-15 minutes. In 2025, it is assumed that the charging pile CAPEX is 10,000 yuan / unit, of which the charging module accounts for 50%, and the charging module market size is about 250 billion yuan; assuming the charging cost is 0.7 yuan / kwh, the installed capacity of the charging pile is 0.4TW, and the corresponding operating market size is about 1200 billion yuan.
Under-vehicle charging equipment directly hits the pain points of the industry, and the network charging pile will be an important part of the Internet of Vehicles. In April 2020, Huawei launched the third-generation DC fast charging module HiCharger. As the core component of the charging pile, HiCharger has the characteristics of high power density, high efficiency, high reliability and low noise, which can be upgraded through OTA, and the average annual failure rate (0.6%) is much lower than the industry average (3%-5%), effectively solving the pain points of the charging pile market such as short life cycle, high operation and maintenance cost, low system efficiency, and large charging noise. In addition, HiCharger can also monitor the operation status of the equipment in real time, which has become an important part of the vehicle-road collaboration in the Internet of Vehicles, providing a larger market imagination space.
A total of two DC fast charging modules of the same size have been released worldwide, namely the domestic version of 30kW and the overseas version of 20kW, which can maintain a full-range constant power output of 300-1000V, support the same size expansion of charging piles, and meet the strong demand for high-voltage fast charging of electric vehicles in the future, and have now been determined to cooperate with the State Grid (Beijing), Star Charging (Changzhou), South Grid Electric (Shenzhen), Huashang Sanyou (Beijing), Zhuhai Titan (Zhuhai) and Dalian Robinson (Dalian).
The market concentration of charging modules has gradually increased, and the networking has expanded the imagination space. From 2016 to 2020, the share of the three charging pile leaders of Telai, State Grid and Star Charging remained at about 70% for five consecutive years. According to the Charging Alliance, charging modules account for 50% of the overall cost of charging piles. In recent years, the price of charging modules has fallen sharply, under the development trend of high-power, intelligent and network platform, manufacturers with charging module production capacity are mainly divided into self-produced charging pile manufacturers (Zhongheng, Special Caller, etc.) and charging module suppliers that have accumulated certain technologies (Infineon, Huawei, ZTE and other power supply or communication power supply companies), and the top five companies in the charging module market share in 2019 include Infineon, Telaidian, Yonglian, Encore, ZTE, CR5 accounted for more than 70%.
3.3 Under the high-voltage trend, silicon carbide is accelerating, and the domestic substitution of power devices ushers in opportunities
The motor controller is the core component of the electric drive assembly, the value accounts for 40% of the assembly, of which the main component IGBT accounts for 44%, the current technical threshold is high, and the localization rate is low. IGBT technology includes chip design, wafer manufacturing, module packaging, etc., which is more difficult to manufacture and has a high moat, mainly monopolized by Foreign leaders such as Infineon, ABB, Mitsubishi, Siemens, Toshiba, Fuji and so on. According to Jibang Consulting, from 2019 to 2025, the scale of China's automotive IGBT market will increase from 15.5 billion yuan to 21 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. At present, local enterprises such as BYD Semiconductor, Star Semiconductor and CRRC Times Electric are expanding production in the new energy vehicle IGBT and entering the top ten in the domestic vehicle regulation IGBT market in 2020.
Silicon carbide materials have excellent performance, short-term focus on improving reliability, long-term steering to control R&D and production costs, and usher in a large-scale start-up phase in 2025. At present, new energy vehicles mainly use 400V voltage system, which stems from the demand for fast charging will develop to the 800V voltage platform, and at the same time drive the trend of high voltage of power modules. Compared with the commonly used silicon IGBTs, silicon carbide power devices have the advantages of light weight, small size, high power density, high mileage, low controller loss, good thermal conductivity, and higher temperature resistance. Tesla began to carry ST's SiC power module in 2018, opening the era of Commercial SiC in the automotive field. At present, the cost of Tesla's silicon carbide module is about 5,000 yuan, which is about three times that of the 650VIGBT module, but with the expansion of production scale and intensified market competition, siC costs will fall after the explosion stage of loading volume increase.
Automotive power semiconductors open up the silicon carbide market space, driving the expansion of upstream substrate and epitaxial demand. The automotive power semiconductor market size will grow from $1.48 billion in 2020 to $5.56 billion in 2026, with a six-year CAGR of 25.9%, of which IGBT and SiC will occupy more than 80% of the market. Looking at the SiC market as a whole, it is expected that the market size will reach 2.5 billion US dollars by 2025, of which the SiC market size in the field of new energy vehicles and charging piles will reach 1.778 billion US dollars, accounting for 71%. New energy vehicle manufacturers accelerate the introduction of silicon carbide power devices, which will affect the demand for SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers. It is estimated that the cost of SiC substrate accounts for the highest 43%, and the epitaxial cost accounts for about 27%, corresponding to a market size of 76/480 million US dollars.
Domestic manufacturers import substrates and epitaxial wafers for packaging, and the technical differences with overseas leading enterprises have gradually narrowed. In 2018, the global SiC epitaxial wafer market accounted for nearly 80% of the share of the three companies in the United States, Cree, Dow Corning and II-VI. In the conductive SiC substrate market, the combined market share of Cree and II-VI in the United States exceeds 75%; in the semi-insulated silicon carbide substrate market, it is mainly occupied by II-VI, Cree and Shandong Tianyue. According to NASA statistics, the total market share of these two companies will reach 7.9% in 2020, and the rest of the Star Semiconductor, CRRC Times, Sanan Optoelectronics, Tyco Tianrun, etc. are also accelerating the design and production of SiC devices, and gradually extending to the upstream of substrates and epitaxis.
In general, in the short term, there is still a gap in all aspects of the industrial chain of domestic manufacturers, mainly based on the processing and design of imported SiC substrates; in the long run, domestic enterprises have increased capital expenditure and increaseD expenditure, and the era of localization has begun in continuously narrowing the gap.
Huawei invests in leading domestic enterprises and lays out silicon carbide power devices. Hubble Investment, a subsidiary of Huawei, is one of the major shareholders of Shandong Tianyue and Tianke Heda, holding 6.34%/4.82% of the equity respectively. In addition, Huawei has also invested in Two Leading Domestic Silicon Carbide Extension companies, HantianTiancheng and Dongguan Tianyu.
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[Xing Yanjun.]
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