Do new energy vehicles make money in the end?
Take BYD as an example, in 2018, BYD's government subsidies included in the profit and loss of the current period were about 2.073 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period was 2.78 billion yuan, which is equivalent to three-quarters of the net profit from subsidies, 130 billion market value of enterprises (automobile business accounted for about 58%), deducting non-net profits of only less than 600 million, of course, these 600 million also include the profit of foundry business;
Looking at Beiqi Blue Valley, the amount of subsidies received in 2018 was 4.452 billion yuan, deducting non-net profit of -729 million, which has been negative for many consecutive years; then there is Jianghuai Automobile, the performance is even worse. Note that these are the top 7 manufacturers of new energy vehicles in terms of domestic sales, and the performance of the car companies behind them is even worse.
New Energy Vehicle Sales Ranking (units):
Obviously, domestic new energy vehicle companies are not profitable, and a large part of their net profits are government subsidies, but according to the current subsidy plan, the new energy vehicle market will enter the era of no subsidies from 2021, and it is still in the transitional stage of subsidy decline until the end of next year. That is to say, in the future, if the sales of new energy vehicles want to maintain profits, they must either increase the selling price or reduce the cost.
Is the price increase realistic?
Two days ago there was a rumor, saying that the domestic Tesla will reduce the price by 20% next year, Tesla then clarified the denial of price reduction, not to mention whether the rumors are true or false, the current domestic manufacturers do not have such a brand effect as Tesla, the future market competition is becoming more and more fierce, the local manufacturers price increase space is extremely limited.
After the release of the new subsidy policy, BYD also announced that its models would not increase in price, saying that the company has the core technology reserves of the whole industry chain, a rich model matrix, the opening up and sharing of the e-platform, etc., which can effectively dilute the cost of research and development and production, and "have a high scale effect and anti-risk ability". That is to say, the key to the future survival of vehicle manufacturers lies in cost control.
In addition, according to BNEF data, regardless of subsidies and other factors, the price of new energy vehicles is expected to be the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles around 2023.
How much incremental space is there?
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (Draft for Comments), which aims to achieve a new energy penetration rate of 25% by 2025, which is 5% higher than the online transmission target, assuming that the annual car sales in 2025 are 25 million units (and the sales volume in 13, 14 and 15 years), and the penetration rate of 25% must reach about 6.25 million new energy sales, and from January to November this year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales are 1.043 million units, note that the plan is out in December, the target must have considered the fact that the sales of new energy vehicles this year declined.
The previous industrial planning goal of 2012 to 2020 is to reach 2 million new energy vehicles by 2020, with a cumulative production and sales volume of more than 5 million vehicles, from the perspective of policy implementation, the cumulative sales volume from 2016 to 2018 is 2.6 million, and the cumulative sales volume next year is basically determined to be completed, so the policy goal has great reference significance. At the annual meeting of China's automobile circulation industry held on November 16 this year, the association believed that the challenge target for new energy vehicle sales in 2020 was 2 million units, and the neutral target was 1.6 million units. Therefore, in the next few years, the industry incremental space is still very broad, and major securities companies are also bullish on the new energy automobile industry next year.
Understanding these is to illustrate that in the next few years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be maintained at a very high level, the orders of industrial chain companies are not lacking, but the overall order price will maintain a downward trend, whether it can be profitable depends on the bargaining power of the enterprise itself, and often the more core the company, the stronger the bargaining power, so the company that can survive and live well in the next few years can only be the core company.
Industrial chain combing
From the perspective of automobile cost to sort out the industrial chain, new energy vehicles can probably be divided into five major systems: power system, chassis, body, interior, and automotive electronics, and the proportion of each system is as follows:
Among them, the power system accounts for about 50% of the total vehicle cost. The power system mainly includes batteries, motors, and electronic control "three major electricity" systems, of which the cost of power batteries accounts for the brunt of the impact, reaching 76%. According to business statistics, the cost of battery systems usually accounts for 30%-50% of the cost of the vehicle.
Battery pack
The core composition of the car directly determines the performance and cost of the car, and what is discussed here is only the lithium battery, and the fuel cell technology is far from mature. At present, the most representative is the ternary lithium battery (Tesla uses, high energy density, poor safety) and lithium iron phosphate battery (BYD use, high safety, long life, low density, serious attenuation at low temperature), ternary lithium battery can be divided into NCM and NCA (Tesla) two routes, interested can understand it themselves.
Lithium battery is composed of two modules: battery cell and protection board, the protection plate is mainly composed of a protection chip (or management chip), MOS tube, resistance, capacitor and PCB board; the battery cell is equivalent to the heart of the lithium battery, and the management system is equivalent to the brain of the lithium battery.
At present, the domestic battery system supply pattern basically presents an oligopoly, Ningde era has successfully entered the world car industry supply chain, Ewell Lithium Energy and Sunwoda also occupy a certain share in the international market, BYD itself has a power battery business, has begun to supply, in addition, Guoxuan Hi-Tech (downstream including BAIC, Zhongtong Bus, Nanjing Golden Dragon, etc.) and other major markets are still in the country.
The material pattern is shown in the following figure:
For example, Tesla's suppliers include Panasonic and LGC, and the latter's material suppliers can also be regarded as in the Tesla industry chain (industrial development rather than concept).
Motors and electronic controls
As an alternative to the functions of traditional engines (gearboxes), the performance of new energy vehicle motors and electronic control systems directly determines the main performance indicators of electric vehicles such as climbing, acceleration, and maximum speed. Foreign motor companies are in a dominant position in the field of high-end motors, and the degree of autonomy in the field of motors and electronic control in China is still far behind that of batteries, and some core components of motor electronic control, such as IGBT chips, still do not have completely independent production capacity. This is an autonomous and controllable focus, and the relevant documents also show that the country attaches great importance to it.
At the weekend, Reuters news, the new energy vehicle field of the national large fund is about to be established, the motor electronic control field may be the focus of investment. Note: At present, China mostly uses permanent magnet synchronous motors (China's rare earth resources are abundant).
Electric vehicle motor controller as a control of electric vehicle drive motor equipment, by receiving the vehicle controller and control mechanism (brake pedal, accelerator pedal, gear shift mechanism) transmitted control information, the drive motor speed, torque and steering control, and can simultaneously control the output of the power battery accordingly, the future all-in-one control (central controller) is the development trend.
At present, manufacturers are divided into two categories: one is the self-production of vehicle manufacturers (BYD, BAIC New Energy, Jiangling New Energy, Changan New Energy, Zhongtong Bus, Xiamen Jinlong), etc., accounting for about 55%; the second is professional manufacturers, some traditional industrial-related enterprises actively transform and intervene in the supply of new energy vehicle motor electronic control related products, such as Huichuan Technology, Invuitton, Wolong Electric Drive, Founder Motor, Jiangte Motor, etc., accounting for about 45%. Third-party professional production is still fiercely competitive, and no single manufacturer has appeared.
Car chassis
The chassis is one of the important components of the car, mainly including the transmission system (clutch, transmission, transmission shaft, main reducer, differential and half axle, etc.), the driving system (frame, axle, wheels, suspension (shock absorbers, etc.)), steering system and braking system. According to BOCI estimates, the total market space will be about 76.3 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 23%.
Electrification has spawned the demand for battery boxes (relative to the biggest change point of fuel vehicles), the battery box volume is larger, and the requirements for processing equipment, processes, design capabilities, etc. are relatively high, so they are mainly provided by professional suppliers, and the battery box is still in the early stages of development, and the market pattern is still unclear. At present, Lingyun shares, Huayu Automobile, etc. have received relatively many orders and temporarily occupy a leading position.
Intelligence has driven the steer-by-wire shift to become a new trend
Brake system (EHB hydraulic, EMB mechanical), line control dynamic products with high technical content, the current domestic development is relatively good Bethel (EPB electronic parking system), Tuopu Group, Wanan Technology, etc.;
Steering system (EPS), from the perspective of competitive factors, the steering system by wire has higher requirements for technology, capital, safety, etc., and it is expected that in the short term, the steering system by wire control products will also be controlled by giants such as Bosch and ZF. At present, Tuopu Group and other enterprises have product layout or mass production in EPS and other fields;
Electronic throttle, the use of wires to replace the traditional cable or tie rod, the current major domestic suppliers include Hella, United Power, Ningbo Gaofa, Aolian Electronics, Kaizhong shares, etc., of which Hella market share is relatively high, is expected to reach 60%.
The potential for lightweighting of the chassis is enormous
Core companies in the field of chassis: Bethel (EPB + lightweight + line control), Tuopu Group (complete chassis products), Huayu Automobile (battery shell, intelligent, lightweight), Lingyun (battery shell, aluminum alloy subframe, etc.), Guangdong Hongtu (battery shell, aluminum alloy lightweight).
Body + interior
The gross profit margin of listed companies is generally concentrated at about 20%, of which Tuopu and Daimei are more than 25%.
Automotive Electronics
Automotive electronics is a general term for vehicle body automotive electronic control devices and vehicle-mounted automotive electronic control devices. The empowerment of automotive electronics makes traditional automobiles a comprehensive platform with transportation, entertainment, office and communication functions. In the future, the car will become another Internet portal after the mobile phone.
The automotive electronics industry chain can be divided into three levels: the upstream is composed of electronic component design, production and OEM/packaging manufacturers, with many manufacturers and sufficient supply; the midstream is a system integrator, with certain consumer electronics attributes, and fierce competition; the downstream is an automaker, and its bargaining power is higher.
Focusing on the field of sensors, the domestic sensor supply market shows a foreign monopoly pattern, and high-end automotive sensors rely heavily on imports. The current average car contains 24 MEMS sensors, and the number will continue to increase in the future.
From the perspective of the domestic sensor manufacturer pattern, the market share of Huagong Technology reached 37.62%, And Baolong Technology increased its market share to 23.07% due to the rapid development of its TPMS business, Naiwei Technology (15%) and Dongfeng Technology (10.32%).
Compared with MEMS, ADAS intelligent sensor technology content is higher, the price is several times or even dozens of times higher, listed companies, Baolong Technology, Huayu Automotive, Desay SV have millimeter wave radar products, this piece of future potential is huge.
Vehicle camera is one of the most mature on-board sensors, generally single vehicles with more than 6 cameras, high industry barriers, many links are controlled by foreign manufacturers, domestic competitiveness is concentrated in the camera module, OFILM began to enter.
In short, the opportunities for new energy vehicles are concentrated in batteries, parts and automotive electronics, and the future of the whole vehicle is winner-take-all, and the incremental opportunity is to focus on Tesla
2022 EV TECH EXPO Shanghai International New Energy Vehicle Technology Expo
01Introduction to the exhibition
EV TECH EXPO Shanghai International New Energy Vehicle Technology Expo is a global ecological exhibition that includes intelligent networked vehicles, intelligent driving technology, battery motor electronic control technology, charging and replacing technology, wiring harness connector technology, thermal management technology, fuel cell and hydrogen refueling station technology, testing technology, lightweight technology and equipment and materials. Founded in 2008 (EVTECHEXPO was formerly known as Shanghai International Energy Conservation and New Energy Automobile Industry Expo), it was upgraded in 2021. So far, 14 offline exhibitions have been successfully held, opening up the "domestic and international dual cycle" model of China's new energy vehicle market, and striving to build a global forward-looking business platform for new energy vehicle technology, EV TECH EXPO has become the leader brand of the global new energy vehicle technology exhibition.
02 Exhibition area planning
EV TECH EXPO is based on the global new energy vehicle industry chain, with the "shared new energy vehicle technology ecosystem" as its mission, is composed of "EV ELECTRON intelligent driving technology exhibition area", "BMC car battery motor electronic control technology exhibition area", "FCVE hydrogen fuel and hydrogen refueling station technology exhibition area", "EVCE charging and replacing technology exhibition area", "EVWIRE beam connector technology exhibition area", "EVTMS thermal management technology exhibition area", "EVAMTE manufacturing technology and equipment exhibition area", "EVAMTE manufacturing technology and equipment exhibition area". EV TESTING New Energy Vehicle Testing Technology Exhibition Area "Eight Giant Exhibition Group Composition, exhibits cover "main engine factory, Tier 1/2, manufacturing equipment, materials and automobile culture" and other 5 major formats, a total of 20 categories, is the only new energy vehicle comprehensive exhibition that has the whole industry chain of new energy vehicles "domestic and overseas, online and offline, trade and culture" at the same time.
03
Exhibition time
Exhibition time: May 31 to June 2, 2022
Venue: Shanghai New International Expo Center