In 1991, the Soviet edifice collapsed, a super-empire was torn to 15 parts, and the achievements of the centuries-old Expansion of the Russian Empire were instantly destroyed. Russia, the largest successor of the Soviet Union, although it owns three-quarters of the former Soviet Union and half of its population, still cannot resist the continuous decline in national strength. Even under the painstaking efforts and efforts of the strongman Putin, Russia has not improved, and has to retreat again and again in the face of the aggressive offensive of the West.
We can open the map of Eurasia and see that the loss of 14 other republics has exposed key parts of Russia, which makes it appear fragile. Of all Russia's neighbors, three have the most important geographical locations: Belarus to the west, Ukraine to the southwest, and Kazakhstan in the middle. Ukraine was previously considered to be the most critical region for Russia to be infallible, but in fact, Kazakhstan is far more important than Ukraine, both historically and realistically.
01 History of Ukraine
Supposedly, Ukraine and Russia were originally one family, part of the East Slavs. From the middle of the 9th century AD, together they created the mighty Kievan Rus'. In November 1240, Kiev was captured by invading Mongols, and Kievan Rus' perished. Twenty years later, the Muscovite Principality, located deep in the plains of Eastern Europe, began to grow stronger, eventually defeating the Mongols and establishing a unified Russian state on the ruins of the Golden Horde.
To the southwest of the Russian Empire, the Ancient Rus' in the Dnieper Valley gradually evolved into Ukrainians and gradually formed into a single ethnic group with a unique language, culture and living customs.
Because Ukraine is located in the European corridor, it is a place of four wars, where the Mongols, Poles, Turks, and Russians have repeatedly fought for it, and the involuntary Ukraine has hovered between the East and the West, torn apart. In 1654, the Cossack Emirate of Ukraine signed the Pereyaslav Agreement with Russia, marking the official beginning of the "Russian-Ukrainian merger" process, and the alliance between the two countries lasted until 1991.
02 The geographical status of Ukraine
Ukraine's geographical location is important, the geopolitical intersection between the European Union and Russia. The easternmost part of Ukraine is 400 kilometers from Moscow, and the Eastern European plain in the middle is a flat river, unhindered. If Western powers start from Ukraine, they can easily pose a great threat to Russia, directly threatening Moscow to the north and the resource-rich Caucasus region to the east.
For Russia, on the other hand, only by controlling Ukraine can it infiltrate Central and Western Europe and thus gain a central place on the European political scene.
In addition, the western part of Ukraine leads directly to the mouth of the Danube River, and controlling Ukraine can also gain the advantage of the estuary region, and the power can directly reach Central Europe; using Ukraine as a base is easy to expand to the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, and any big country that wants to make a difference in the Black Sea region, Ukraine is an unavoidable role.
If Russia loses Ukraine, it will completely lose its strategic initiative and will remain in the remote corners of Eastern Europe, and it will be completely reduced to a second-rate country. So Brzezinski said, "With Ukraine, Russia is an empire; without Ukraine, Russia is a country." ”
03 History of Kazakhstan
We open the map and on the south side of the Plain east of the Caspian Sea and west Siberia, there is a huge country, which is the world's largest landlocked country , Kazakhstan , which has an area of 2.72 million square kilometers and a population of 19 million.
In the 1620s, the Uzbek Khanate appeared in the eastern part of the Golden Horde, and later a part of the population broke away from the Uzbek Khanate, which was called Kazakhs. In 1456, they established the Kazakh Khanate.
In 1589, Kazakhstan was divided into three parts: the Great Jade, the Middle Jade, and the Little Jade. Historically, the Kazakh khanate has been invaded many times by the Dzungars in the east, and each of them has sought strong patrons to resist the attacks of the Dzungars and the three Central Asian khanates in the south.
It was at this time that the Russian Empire began to grow stronger. At the end of the 16th century, Russia conquered the Kazan Khanate and the Astallahan Khanate, expanding its territory into the Volga River Valley, reaching the end of eastern Europe and beginning to border the Kazakh steppe.
In 1581, Russia sent Yermak to lead cossack troops across the Ural Mountains, extending the claws of aggression to Asia, and finally occupying the vast and fertile Siberia. From the West Siberian Plain to the south, the forests gradually shrank and thinned until they completely gave way to the open Kazakh steppes. In the northern part of the steppe, russian Cossacks have begun to appear.
The lesser of two evils, the Kazakhs weighed, and the nomadic little jades in the western steppe first submitted to Russia in the early 18th century in order to gain protection. In October 731, Abul khali khan of Xiaoyuzi formally swore an oath of submission to Russia, and the territory under his rule was included in the Territory of Russia, and the Kazakhs living there became Russian subjects. In 1732, Semaq Khan of Zhongyuzi also led his subordinates to make an oath of submission to Russia. The Great Yuz was forced to submit to the Dzungar Khanate.
The purpose of kazakh submission to Russia was to gain the protection of the Russians from the oppression of the Dzungars. But the result of the surrender was counterproductive, and they not only continued to suffer oppression by the Dzungars, but also suffered from Russian annexation and colonization. Eventually, the Kazakhs resisted, attacking Russian villages and robbing Russian caravans.
By the time of Peter the Great, the desire to conquer Central Asia was strong, and he pointed out that the Kazakh steppe was the "key gate" to the countries of Central Asia. Russia gradually adopted a step-by-step approach, slowly engulfing the Kazakh steppe.
In 1715, Russia established Yamesh Fort on the left bank of the middle reaches of the Irtysh River; in 1716, it built Omsk Castle at the site where the Om River flows into the Irtysh River; in 1718, it established Semipalatinsk; in 1720, it established Ustykamenogorsk, northwest of Jaisanpo near the Chinese border; in 1738, it established Orenburg in the northwest of the Kazakh steppe...
In order to consolidate their colonial rule and suppress the resistance of the nomads, the Russians built many fortresses along the rivers of the border area and connected them into a line, and these bunker lines were like a hinge, trying to divide and encircle Kazakhstan. The bunker lines built by Russia at that time were mainly the Irtysh River Bunker Line, the Orenburg Bunker Line, the Isheim River Bunker Line, and the Ural River Bunker Line.
Of these pillbox lines, of particular importance is the 1,890-kilometer Orenburg Pillbox Line, built since 1741, which connects the Ural River to the Guriev Fortress to the Tobol River, and Kazakhstan is suddenly in trouble.
In 1758, the Dzungar Khanate was destroyed by the Qing army, and the Qing Dynasty and Russia divided the lands of the Dzungar Khanate. Forced by the divine power of the Qing Dynasty, Zhongyuzi and Dayuz successively submitted to the Qing Dynasty, and Abu Gan Khan of Zhongyuzi was also crowned by the Qianlong Emperor, and Kazakhstan temporarily retained its independence. Due to Russian oppression, the Kazakhs gradually migrated to the northwestern region outside the Qing Empire, which was rich in water and grass and sparsely populated south of Lake Balkhash.
After entering the 19th century, with the decline of the Qing Dynasty, Russia stepped up the pace of annexation of Kazakhstan. At this time, Russia had just defeated Napoleon and became a European gendarme, and its national strength was at its peak. In 1820, Tsar Alexander I ordered the formation of a new Council for Asia, focusing on how to bring the Kazakhs under Russian rule.
In 1822, the Russian government authorized the Governor of Siberia, Speransky, to promulgate the Regulations of the Kyrgyz peoples of Western Siberia, formally annexing Kazakhstan. At this point, the Kazakh Khanate, which lasted for 366 years, was declared extinct. Kazakhstan did not declare independence until 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
04 The geographical status of Kazakhstan
Why did the Russian Empire spare no effort to annex Kazakhstan? Mainly because its strategic position is so important, it happens to be at the hub of what Mackinder calls the "Island of the World." Mackinder believes that whoever controls Central Asia controls the world island in Eurasia, and whoever controls the world island controls the world. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, occupies most of Central Asia and is the core of Central Asia.
Kazakhstan has been the corridor of major civilizations and the focus of contention of various empires since ancient times, and Russia, China, India, and the Middle East have all carried out cultural and ethnic collisions and exchanges here. In modern times, it became a contest between Russia and Britain, and fierce competition between each other was fought, and the Russians won the competition.
From the beginning of the Muscovite Principality, the Russians sought to find the outlets of the oceans, especially Peter the Great, and formulated in detail the strategic policy towards the four oceans. After the other three oceans had access to the sea, the Russians were very keen to get access to the Indian Ocean, and the south of the Kazakh steppe was a shortcut for Russia to achieve its goal.
On the other hand, from the security point of view, the Kazakh steppe is also something that Russia must take. Russia's terrain is dominated by plains, lack of natural barriers, control of Kazakhstan, Russia's southern frontier gateway is safe. It can be used as a springboard for the southern neighbors and as a buffer zone between the powers that have already controlled the Middle East and South Asia.
We have always used the woolly bear as a metaphor for Russia, which is characterized by great strength, fierceness, thick skin and excellent defense. But it also has a weakness, and that is its soft belly. From the map, Kazakhstan is located exactly in the soft belly of Russia, which is the deadliest place in Russia. If Kazakhstan falls into enemy hands, the enemy uses this as a base to attack the hinterland of Eastern Europe to the northwest and the Ural Mountains to the north, dividing Russia in two. In that case, Russia would simply collapse.
05 Conclusion
At the time of World War II, in the face of the aggressive blitzkrieg of fascist Germany, the Soviet Union had to carry out a strategic shift, and a large number of factories, enterprises, scientific research institutions and talents were transferred to the Ural region and Siberia. After World War II, the Soviet Union focused on the development of the Urals, Siberia and the Far East. Today's Russia, although most of the industry and population are concentrated in Europe, if war breaks out and the enemy comes from Ukraine, even if Moscow falls, Russia will retreat through a strategic retreat, backed by the Urals and Siberia, and have the ability to counterattack.
But what happens if the enemy is coming from the direction of Kazakhstan? Russia will not only lose its strategic rear, but also the psychological last line of defense. So, in contrast, Kazakhstan is more important than Ukraine. To some extent, without Ukraine, Russia can not be an empire, and it is enough to be a second-rate power; but without Kazakhstan, Russia will not even lose its life.
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Text/Source Teacher said 123, more wonderful content, stay tuned.