Messed up! Messed up! The situation in Central Asia is in turmoil again!
Just as 2022 has just arrived and the worldwide political game has not yet been fully launched, the situation in Central Asia has once again become the focus of the international community. However, the surprise this time is not the Afghan Taliban regime under U.S. sanctions, but Kazakhstan, which has always had a low sense of existence and is less well known.
Among the five "Stan countries" in Central Asia, Kazakhstan can be regarded as a country with better economic and social development and the highest per capita income, thanks to the country's abundant natural gas resources, China and Kazakhstan have maintained important energy cooperation, Kazakhstan has been sending abundant natural gas to China all year round, after so many years of mutually beneficial cooperation, China and Kazakhstan have become a model of political strategic mutual trust and economic mutual cooperation.
But it is such a "developing country model" that it has become the first powder keg to be ignited in 2022.
Causes and evolution of the incident
The protests first erupted in the western part of the country, and the cause of the incident was the dissatisfaction of the local people with the government's policy of liberalizing LNG price control.
According to the regulations promulgated by the Government of Kazakhstan, from the first day of the new year, the price of all liquefied natural gas in Mangerstao has been doubled, from the original 60 tenges per liter to 120 tenge, because the cars on which the people of the country rely on to travel are basically all 100 million lNG driven by energy, so this policy directly increases the cost of travel for the public, so from the first time of promulgation, the voice of civil opposition has been rising.
When the opposition gradually evolved into a rally and march, the government immediately took action, sending relevant officials to the local area to negotiate with the protesters, and after discussion and consultation between the two sides, the government initially agreed to lower energy prices and release the arrested people. Seeing that the signs of turmoil were about to be extinguished, the sudden turn of events made most people stunned.
On January 5, local time, the riots spread to Almaty, the largest city in Kazakhstan, according to video footage transmitted by internet media, protesters burned cars, destroyed buildings, robbed shops and did nothing wrong, in order to maintain the situation, Almaty police all went to work and arrested more than 200 rioters who violated public order.
On the same day, more than 1,000 protesters stormed the Almaty city hall building, and the police fought back with tear gas.
Immediately after that, in the early morning of January 6, Beijing time, President Tokayev declared a state of emergency throughout Kazakhstan.
Unknown details
As a political and social riot that affects the whole country, generally speaking, it takes a long period of brewing, detonation and dissemination, etc., the event from small to large, the intensity of the gradual evolution and escalation from low to high, but the jaw-dropping point is that the entire social riot from January 1 to the 5th became a national riot, the time span is not even more than a week, which is not easy for Kazakhstan, which has a population of about 18 million and an area of 2.72 million square kilometers. Without advance planning or the assistance of other foreign forces, it would be difficult for the country's minority opposition figures to organize the movement.
At some point last year, some politicians in Tajikistan, which is adjacent to Kazakhstan, made anti-China remarks in the media, claiming that "China is controlling Central Asia." This rhetoric comes at a time when the United States is in a power vacuum in Central Asia, so it is not surprising that it is backed by Western forces.
Behind the scenes
At a time when the riots have not yet been completely quelled, it is still too early to determine who is behind the riots, but from the current point of view, the riots in Kazakhstan are mainly related to the combination of internal and external factors.
Nein: Russian media believe that Abreazov, a "big man" who straddles the country's political and business circles, personally sponsored and manipulated the storm. The main reason why he wants to launch an offensive against the current government is to grab more energy and thus prevent the energy revolution launched by the government.
External factors: After the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the US control over Central Asia was almost completely lost, especially Kazakhstan's close political relations with Russia and its active economic cooperation with China's "Belt and Road" strategy, which made the White House unhappy. For the sake of U.S. global strategy considerations, especially to balance China and Russia, the United States has influenced Central Asian countries through cultural infiltration and political intervention, and Kazakhstan is the first target on the U.S. Central Asian chessboard.
Just at the end of December last year, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the United States not to launch a "color revolution" in Central Asia and sabotage the new regional situation after the withdrawal of US troops, but from now on, the Americans did not heed The Chinese side's warning, but continued to insist on going their own way. If the country completely collapses under the "color revolution", it will pose a serious threat to the national defense security of China and Russia. How to act next can only depend on the reaction of the parties concerned.