Many years later, when we look back at the 2021 year of the automotive industry, we will surely remember that this year, due to the drastic changes in the industry, every participant is moving forward.
In the post-epidemic era, it has become more difficult for upstream and downstream enterprises in the automotive industry chain to survive. The lack of core crisis that broke out at the end of 2020 ran through the whole year of 2021, and car executives and Tier 1 suppliers "flew" everywhere in order to find chips. Battery shortages and rising raw material prices have also made it difficult for OEMs. The price of core components has increased, the production cost of OEMs has increased, and the profit margin has been further compressed.
Traditional car companies are resisting the pressure in this storm, and young new car manufacturers are walking on thin ice in the wind and rain.
This year, the pattern of "Wei Xiaoli" has changed, and the former champion Weilai has repeatedly encountered threats and lost the championship of delivery in 2021; second-tier new power brands such as Nezha and Zero Run have also found their own positioning, and the delivery volume continues to rise. At the same time, the stock price of "Wei Xiaoli" is no longer as crazy as in 2020, and even has shrunk sharply. This year, Weilai Automobile's stock price fell by nearly 50%, and Xiaopeng and Ideal hovered at a low level for a long time. Under the influence of multiple factors such as industrial chain, international relations and economic environment, the enthusiasm of capital for new cars has begun to return to rationality.
In addition to calming down, people began to reflect on how smart cars can ensure safety while developing rapidly. Tesla, Weilai and other smart cars have become a trend, and they have fallen into a security crisis. A soul torture haunts everyone, is the existing assisted driving technology really safer than human driving?
However, the tribulations and shocks are accompanied by surprises and hopes. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, from January to November 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 13.9%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. First-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have undoubtedly become the vanguard of the popularity of electric vehicles. Pioneer car company Tesla 2021 annual sales approaching the million mark, "Wei Xiaoli" to 100,000 vehicles annual delivery mark closer, traditional car companies incubated "second generation" are also ready to go, rushing to 2022.
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the Future Auto Day Retaliation Disk 2021 top ten unforgettable events in the car circle interviewed dozens of Auto people who were in it, trying to relive this 2021 full of twists and turns and turbulence from the perspective of "people who heard the gunfire".
This is the next part of the 2021 year-end planning series of Future Automotive Daily.
Chip chasers
If you want to ask what is the most painful thing for car companies in 2021? The answer is certainly a shortage of chips.
Because of the lack of cores, factories were forced to stop work and production, and new car companies had to lower their delivery expectations, and even auto giants such as Ford, Honda, and Volkswagen were doomed. When the butterfly effect of the lack of core is transmitted to the terminal market, the 4S store has no new cars to sell, and even the strange phenomenon that used cars are more expensive than new cars.
Lin Lin, who has worked in a joint venture car company factory for nearly 20 years, is in it, and the deepest feeling is that "this year's work is much less." Because of the lack of cores, the factory capacity was idle, as early as June and July, they took a high temperature holiday in advance. After the start of work, it is also a day off on the previous day, "sometimes going to work is to punch a card and come back, and when the time comes to go to the factory to punch in and leave work."
The lack of cores has been going on for a year, and the current situation is still grim. A project manager of an independent brand said that in order to grab the chip, the chairman must personally come forward. He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, confirmed this statement.
"Whoever can give me the chip I invites to drink." Recently, He Xiaopeng spat bitterly in the "Dialogue Challenger" program, Xiaopeng P5 was most affected by chip shortage, and He Xiaopeng even personally flew to accompany people to drink to solve the chip problem.
Source: pixabay
It is not enough for the chairman of the board of directors to go out, and the car company also arranges for buyers to stay in the supplier company for a long time. At the 2020 annual shareholders' meeting, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, revealed that in order to ensure the normal progress of production and operation, senior leaders have been sent to Shanghai to maintain close communication with chip manufacturers. As a gathering place for chip companies, Shanghai has become the city where "core chasers" travel most frequently.
With scarce resources and profit margins, chip "scalpers" came into being. A foreign car company procurement staff said that because of the lack of cores, in most cases, suppliers can not supply on time and in quantity. Scalpers hoard general-purpose chips in our hands, we are like grabbing tickets (grabbing chips), often one second there is stock, the next second it is sold out."
As a software service provider of chip manufacturers, Gong Sen's feelings about the lack of cores are more real. In order to speed up market supply, local governments and a number of chip manufacturers joined hands to expand production capacity, and Gong Sen's work rhythm accelerated significantly in 2021, often traveling to new factories in Hefei, Zhejiang and other places.
However, even if the production side goes all out to increase production capacity, it is difficult to quickly alleviate the pain of the current chip shortage. Gong Sen said that a chip factory takes at least two years from project establishment, site selection, factory construction to equipment commissioning to mass production. On the other hand, some countries are restricting their domestic companies from exporting related equipment to China, and the phenomenon of hardware card necks still exists.
Seeing that chip miracles can be lived in, many upstream companies have emerged. Wu Quan, founding partner of Huaxin Jintong, worries that there is already a significant surplus in chip design companies, and it should be emphasized that the manufacturing-based IDM model is the leading direction for the development of the chip industry, that is, from design, manufacturing, packaging to testing, a company can cover all links.
"At present, the chip industry is facing the double burden of overseas supply chain blockade and domestic industrial capacity that needs to be improved urgently, and car companies may be under pressure for a long time."
Tesla: Word of mouth is separated from sales
Excuse the lack of core, Tesla's sales have another way to "lose good feelings".
"Tesla is an extremely irresponsible company in the Chinese market." This is the biggest feeling of model Y prospective owner Shang Yang after placing an order. These unhappiness comes from Tesla's sales, customer service and other personnel.
Shang Yang told Future Auto Daily that shortly after he paid the deposit, he was told that due to chip shortages, the Model Y of the 19-inch wheel could not be delivered on time. In order to pick up the car as soon as possible, Shangyang had to increase the price by 8,000 yuan and upgrade the wheel hub to 20 inches.
The funny thing is that the chip and the wheel size are not related, Shangyang has also pointed out this, but Tesla's sales attitude is quite tough, "you can refund the order, but the deposit is not refunded, you choose yourself."
After the compromise, Shangyang got the long-desired Model Y, but even the price increase is difficult to escape the "reduction", due to the shortage of chips, the two interfaces at the central armrest of Shangyang's Model Y can only be charged, and cannot transmit data.
Shangyang is not alone, many owners who have picked up their cars and are about to pick up their cars said on social platforms that their vehicles have suffered a reduction in allocation.
Word of mouth has been frequently frustrated, and Tesla's "circle of friends dividend" has also begun to peak. Tao Lin, Tesla's global vice president, has said that the supply chain localization of Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 90%.
"For parts companies, the dividend window period for Tesla concept stocks has passed." A staff member in charge of investment promotion in Shanghai Lingang told Future Auto Daily that with the continuous improvement of Tesla's localization rate, Tesla's circle of friends has basically taken shape, and suppliers will weigh the pros and cons according to the volume of cooperation, and will no longer squeeze into Tesla's supply chain with hard costs.
Small suppliers who once squeezed into Tesla's circle of friends felt a little disappointed. One supplier revealed, "In fact, since working with Tesla, it has not gained much revenue." "In order to get the ticket to the circle of friends, these small suppliers have invested heavily in building a production line for Tesla, but because the order volume is not large, it cannot generate much profit."
However, Tesla itself did not delay making money.
According to the financial report data, in the third quarter of 2021, Tesla's total revenue increased by 57% year-on-year to $13.757 billion, net profit was $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 4 times, and the gross profit margin of its automotive business also reached 30.5%.
The financial well-being is closely related to Tesla's rising delivery volume.
Official data shows that in 2021, Tesla achieved more than 936,000 deliveries, approaching the threshold of one million vehicles delivered annually. The Model Y once surpassed the Haval H6 to become the highest-selling SUV model.
According to the plan, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will further expand production, with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, which will be completed in April this year. Tesla estimates that after the completion of the production line optimization project, 4,000 employees will be added, and the number of employees in the whole plant will reach 19,000.
Under the quenching of ice and fire in the Chinese market, Tesla is becoming more and more like a mature car company, and no one can say where its ceiling is.
Smart cars are difficult to "brake"
Ou Han spent a thrilling Christmas Eve. On December 24, 2021, Ou Han was driving a Model Y, and during the driving, the vehicle suddenly braked autonomously, and the "lying nest" state lasted for about 20 seconds. Four days later, the same situation occurred again at the charging station, the vehicle was completely unable to drive, and eventually had to be called a trailer tow away.
"In June, when the new car was launched, so far there have been 3 brake failures and 2 times of non-charging." Ou Han said that because the brakes failed, he made an appointment for official after-sales repairs and was told that he needed to wait for a month. Ou Han had to laugh at himself, "The biggest wish of the New Year is to return Tesla to a gasoline car." ”
Ou Han is not the only Tesla owner who has encountered this. At the 2021 Shanghai Auto Show, owners wearing "brake failure" T-shirts boarded the roof of Tesla's show cars and pushed Tesla to the cusp of the storm. Subsequently, more accidents caused by Tesla's loss of control surfaced in Guangzhou, Xiamen and Taicang, Jiangsu Province.
The female owner of the "roof rights protection" told future automobile daily that since the accident, her Tesla has been parked in front of the Tesla sales center in Zhengzhou, "If you go back to 2019, I will say to myself never buy a Tesla."
Source: Courtesy of respondents
In fact, not only Tesla, there have been two consecutive traffic accidents in mid-2021, both of which are directed at The Nio Autopilot system. For a time, the topic of "automatic driving to death" rushed to the hot search, causing netizens to seriously question the safety of automatic driving technology.
Although smart electric vehicles have become the trend of the times, and autonomous driving functions have become the standard for new cars, this technology relies heavily on chips, lidar and artificial intelligence algorithms, and even requires road hardware matching, pedestrians to standardize travel, and every link is indispensable. It's far from time for the driver to "let go.".
Therefore, when promoting the above new technologies and new functions, car companies should correctly guide consumers and avoid excessive publicity.
Another thing that needs to be compensated for is the lack of authoritative third-party testing agencies in the industry to define the attribution of responsibility in the event of a traffic accident in a smart car. There are also gaps in relevant laws and regulations that need to be filled urgently.
Regulatory loopholes for smart cars have emerged, and there is still a long way to go if smart cars can drive safely and compliantly on the road.
The pressure warehouse is no longer there, but the dealer is difficult to say relaxed
The automotive industry lacks cores and batteries, in addition to the car companies that are deeply disturbed by it, dealers in the front line can feel the "cold and warm" the most.
"We thought 2020 was the hardest year, but when 2021 was almost over, we found that 2021 was even harder." Zhao Kai, general manager of a joint venture brand 4S store, concluded bitterly. In 2021, the dealer saved more than 2 million yuan through layoffs, salary cuts and other ways, and barely achieved breakeven.
According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, only 30% of auto dealers in the first half of 2021 completed more than half of the annual sales target. In the second half of the year, due to the continuous impact of factors such as the shortage of hot-selling models and the long pick-up cycle, dealer operations were further under pressure. Industry insider Anyang analysis said that the production capacity of new cars is limited, many customers can not wait for a long and uncertain car pick-up cycle, instead choose to buy used cars with small age, 4S stores have also lost pre-sale orders, resulting in profit damage.
The lack of core effect continues to ferment, and the dealer side has the dilemma of "no car to sell".
At a BMW 4S store, the existing cars in the store have been out of stock since September 2021. Some joint venture brands have already scheduled new car deliveries until April and May 2022. By the end of the year, the manufacturer had no warehouse to press, and a dealer lamented, "This is the first time (I) have met since I have been in the industry."
According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the second half of 2021, the dealer inventory warning index fell to the lowest level in the past three years for many consecutive months. Among them, in December 2021, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers fell to 56.1%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year.
Source: China Automobile Dealers Association
In this context, many car companies have lowered the sales targets set for dealers. This came as a bit of a surprise to dealers.
New cars are difficult to find, and the preferential margin of terminal sales has been significantly adjusted. A regional dealer general manager told Future Auto Daily, "Compared with the past few years, the profitability of new cars has rebounded. "This may be one of the few pieces of good news for the automotive industry in the haze of the pandemic.
In 2021, the status of new energy vehicles has climbed to an unprecedented height. This is another deep feeling of dealers. "At the beginning of 2021, for the first time, car companies separately proposed a star rating/scoring system for new energy vehicles, which has never been done before", a joint venture brand sales staff further analyzed, "that is to say, the main engine factory separately allocated a part of the budget to encourage dealers to sell new energy vehicles."
At the same time, dealers are also clearly feeling the pressure from the aftermarket.
The main profit of the dealer comes from the after-sales service link. Industry insiders said that if you buy a car aftermarket product at the recommended retail price of the market, the profit margin of a single product is 100%-200%, and it can even reach 300%. The market prospect of up to 5 trillion yuan has attracted giants such as Tencent, JD.com, and Ali to covet and continue to fall.
"In recent years, we have been talking about capital 'entering' the auto aftermarket again," dealers have a sense of crisis, "if capital strongly expands the layout of the auto aftermarket, the survival of dealers will face great challenges."
It's 2022, and charging is still a problem
Dealers worry that "smart women are difficult to cook without rice", and car owners are still not free from mileage anxiety.
After nearly six years of construction, China has woven an electric vehicle charging network covering 1.53 million charging piles. Even so, the plot of "the car is on the way, queuing up to charge" is still playing out in turn.
During the National Day in 2021, Chen Guang, the owner of an electric car who drove back from Beijing to his hometown in Dongying, Shandong Province, was remorseful, "The electric vehicles that traveled in groups were lined up at the charging station, and it took me 10 hours to drive for 5 hours." "Queuing for 4 hours, charging for 1 hour" rushed to the hot search list of the Eleventh Golden Week. In a highway service area, there are even electric vehicle owners who fight for charging piles.
The embarrassing encounters of car owners reflect the serious uneven distribution of charging piles. A regional leader of Star Charging told Future Auto Daily that the current penetration rate of charging piles in the highway service area is low, and some service areas even do not have charging piles. As of the end of September 2021, the number of highway charging piles in the country was 10,800, accounting for only 0.5% of the total number of charging piles in the country.
The inconvenience of remote travel charging has dissuaded many people. Zhang Tian, who lives in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, and works in Beijing, firmly said he would not buy an electric car.
Electric car owners who commute within the city also have a lot of troubles. Zhao Yue, who lives in a community in Beijing's East Fifth Ring Road, shut out electric vehicles because "charging piles are not allowed in the community".
Like Zhao Yue, there are many car owners who encounter problems in the installation of charging piles. Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motors, once complained that because the installation of charging piles was blocked, WM came with charging piles donated to customers, and nearly half of them could not be sent.
According to the data released by the national supervision platform for new energy vehicles, as of November 2021, more than 40% of new energy vehicle owners in the country have not installed charging piles in the communities where they live, and need to charge public charging piles 3 kilometers away.
Old residential areas without planned fixed parking Spaces Source: Future Auto Daily
In the face of the dissatisfaction of the majority of car owners, the community feels very wronged. The person in charge of the relevant power equipment business told the Future Automobile Daily that the load of the charging pile does not meet the bearing capacity of the electricity used by some residents in the community, and if the charging pile is installed, it will involve the expansion of the power system of the community, but the cost of expansion is higher, and no one pays for it at present.
Overall, as of the end of November 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 6.78 million (according to the China Automobile Association), while the number of charging piles in the country is only 1.53 million, and the ratio of vehicles to piles is less than 4:1. As sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, the charging problem of new energy vehicle owners in 2022 may be more severe.
This does not seem to be a problem in the eyes of the outside world, the charging pile is insufficient, and it is good to lay vigorously.
However, the fact is that the profitability of charging pile companies with tens of thousands of annual registrations has not yet been solved. In the past two years, even many companies have stopped operating or delisted; even "big players" such as Putian New Energy and Wanma Aichong, who have looted land in major cities, have also sold their equity; even the first three charging operators - Star Charging, Special Call and State Grid, are still in a state of "strategic loss".
A charging pile operator told Future Auto Daily that the investment cost of a 120kW double-gun DC charging pile is 130,000 yuan. Taking the operator's charging station at Xuzhou Airport as an example (at a medium operating level), the average daily working hour of a single charging pile of the charging station is 4 hours, and the monthly income of a single pile is about 4,000-5,000 yuan. Roughly, the payback period is at least 2 years.
Although battery life technology continues to break through, charging difficulties still plague consumers and hinder the further popularization of new energy vehicles. In order to completely resolve this contradiction, I am afraid that more departments will need to participate and join hands to break through.
(In order to protect the privacy of the interviewees, some of the characters in the article are pseudonyms)
The author | Qin Zhangyong Zhang Yi
Edit the | Li Huanhuan