Produced | Tiger Sniff Car Group
The author | Master Zi Nan
At the beginning of 2022, Tesla CEO Musk "talked nonsense" on Twitter.
A day earlier, Musk posted a relatively pessimistic view of the economic situation in 2022 under a tweet: "Predicting the macro economy is challenging, and my intuition is that the Great Recession will be around the spring or summer of 2022, but no later than 2023."
It's an appalling prediction, and if Musk's prediction is accurate, an economic crisis will occur within a year. But Musk didn't give any reasons and details about what he thought was going to happen this year's Great Recession, only "gut feelings."
The remarks came under a tweet discussing global unicorn companies, pushing out a list of unicorns and asking how many unicorns would survive 5 years from now.
Musk's answer is that if history can be used as a reference, not many people (companies) will be able to survive the next recession.
Is the crisis real?
While Musk didn't give more judgment, Musk's prediction sparked more discussion on Twitter.
One Twitter user believes that, similar to history, musk's recession will begin with a sell-off in U.S. stocks. "U.S. stocks are now in a similar situation to December 1999, where 60 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 are at a one-year low, while the index as a whole is at an all-time high, and now the Fed is scaling back quantitative easing, and in the history of the sale that would have begun when quantitative easing was over."
In short, the U.S. stock market is at a high point, there is not enough new money outside the stock market, and U.S. stock funds accumulate in the pool of a small number of head companies, the valuation of other companies is at a low level, financing difficulties are increasing, and the Fed tends to be conservative in monetary policy. This means that liquidity constraints are intensifying.
Another Twitter user believes that inflation in the United States has reached an all-time high, a clear sign that the prices of goods in retail stores that it has observed have been rising in the past 6 months. Whether or not there will be a financial crisis in the next stage depends on whether the Fed can effectively exit the monetary policy of quantitative easing.
"The Fed's raising interest rates is equivalent to puncturing the current bubble, and if the Fed plans to do so, it will be tantamount to a financial crisis for the US stock market and real estate investment markets in the short term, and Musk's view will be true; on the contrary, the economic cycle continues to blow the bubble wider."
The netizen believes that the root cause of current financial risks comes from the uneven distribution of social income. After the 2008 financial crisis, the income growth rate of the people was slower, the income level of the upper class increased faster, and a large amount of wealth was concentrated in the hands of the rich, and these funds were not invested in the real economy, but went to the virtual economy and network technology, which did not provide more employment opportunities, which led to a decline in the people's consumption power and the overall market contraction. And so on, forming a vicious circle.
In addition to the above-mentioned Twitter replies that seriously discussEd Musk's views, some Twitter users have accused Musk of using his influence to manipulate the market or make "hate-rich remarks".
But after all, the discussion is only a discussion, whether the financial crisis will happen in the short term as Musk said, and we still have a year to witness.
But judging from Musk's past statements, he may also be anxious about what he believes is the upcoming financial crisis. "If the 'Starship' doesn't fly at least once every two weeks next year, we will face a real risk of bankruptcy." On November 30, Musk said on Twitter, "SpaceX's cost is staggering, liquidity may be tight, although SpaceX is unlikely to go bankrupt, but it is not impossible." SpaceX could face bankruptcy during the next recession. ”
At least for Musk's Space X, the crisis is real.
In addition, the actions of Musk and other rich people in the secondary market have reference significance for the macroeconomy and the trend of the secondary market.
In November-December last year, Musk sold 10% of his Tesla stock holdings. Although the reason given by Musk is to pay taxes, the more than ten billion dollars of funds still ran away.
If we stretch the timeline, we will find that the rich cash out is not an isolated case. As of the third quarter of 2021, Buffett's Berkshire has had a fourth consecutive quarter of net stock sales, the longest selling period since the 2008 statistics were counted. Stocks sold about $2 billion more than they bought, and cash reserves reached a record $149.2 billion.
And he once said, "Cash is the worst investment in the world."
Is Musk trying to bottom out?
"Just reduced his own stock at a high level, and now he is out to walk and panic, is Musk trying to bottom out", after Musk issued a prediction of the financial crisis, a capital market analyst expressed doubts about Musk's statement to the author.
Musk's many crazy followers have given him considerable power to influence the market through social media, and vague regulatory policies have often made it difficult for regulators to make Musk pay for his words and deeds.
For example, in the cryptocurrency market, Musk has said that Tesla will accept bitcoin payments, which once raised the price of bitcoin. But then, he said that Bitcoin's mining caused a lot of energy waste "not green enough" and announced a moratorium on accepting bitcoin payments, after which Bitcoin fell sharply. Turn your hands over to clouds, cover your hands for rain. The big guys in the currency circle need to mobilize a huge amount of market funds or computing power to achieve the purpose, Musk only needs to move his fingers.
In a market with little regulation, such a role increases the risk of all assets and transactions. And whether this time predicting the financial crisis is Musk paving the way for the next stage of capital operation is still unknown.
After all, on Musk's Twitter, magical things are always happening. For example, in November, he suddenly announced the sale of Tesla stock; tweeted that 50% of his tweets were edited while he was in the toilet; or announced that he was considering becoming a full-time influencer.
The risks that objectively exist in the financial system have not changed as a result of Musk's tweet. As the tweet spreads anxiety about the financial crisis, Musk may not care.
The only predictable thing is that Musk's elusive speech will continue. But no one knows if Musk is going to the toilet, heralding the arrival of the next financial crisis.
End
Want to increase knowledge Pay attention to tiger sniff video number!