Passenger Cars: Retail sales of narrow passenger cars expected in December are expected to be 2.050 million units, down 10.4% y/y

Zhitong Finance APP learned that according to data from the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in December are expected to be 2.050 million units, down 10.4% year-on-year. Full-year 2021 retail sales are expected to reach 20.09 million units, up 4.1% year-on-year. The association said the auto market faced more uncertainty in December. At the end of the year, the supply side continued to improve, and the dealer side also actively prepared for the upcoming sales season of the previous year. However, the obstruction of population movement may further affect sales during the Spring Festival peak season. In the new energy market, the subsidy is clearly reduced by 30% by the beginning of next year, so it is expected that there will be no more obvious early sales compared with previous years. Most of the existing consumption promotion policies expire before the end of the year, and next year will continue the current support. Under the intertwining of multiple factors, the market is not expected to have a significant tail effect in December.

The Association also pointed out that the results of terminal price monitoring show that the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-December was about 11.0%, which remained stable compared with the end of last month and remained at a high level. Among them, luxury and joint venture brands have been alleviated due to supply problems, and market prices have begun to fall. According to the December retail target survey, more than 80% of the manufacturers in the overall market still have double-digit negative year-on-year growth, and the preliminary estimate is that the narrow passenger car retail market this month is about 2.050 million units, down about 10.4% year-on-year.

In addition, the average daily growth rate of the first, second and third weeks of retail sales of major manufacturers was -17%, -7%, -8%, respectively, a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10%, mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic in various places, and the improvement of the supply side was relatively limited. The market gradually recovered in the fourth week and is expected to be around -8% year-on-year. The strength of the impulse at the end of the fifth week will be less than in previous years, and the average daily sales volume is expected to be -14% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales in December will reach 2.05 million units.

According to the latest survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November was 1.35, up 4.7% month-on-month, and dealers actively prepared goods in response to the spring festival sales season, and the inventory level continued to rise. The new energy vehicle market continues to be hot, facing a 30% decline in new energy subsidies at the beginning of next year, most car companies choose insurance promotions at the end of the year, and it is expected that the new energy market will reach a new high in December.