In 2022, Apple and Tesla can't do it?

This year, the S&P 500 index has risen sharply, with technology giants contributing more. Such as Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla and so on.

But this year's excellent performance does not mean that it will continue to happen next year, and Wall Street expects the rally of Apple and Tesla next year to be muted.

Five stocks contributed a third of the gains

In 2021, as of December 15, the S&P 500 was up more than 25 percent, up from the 17 percent gains of the Dow and 20 percent of the Nasdaq.

A report by Goldman Sachs shows that a large number of investors' funds are concentrated only on a few tech giants.

Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla contributed more than a third of the S&P 500's gains. Among them, the contribution of Microsoft, Google and Apple rose by more than 2%. Tesla contributed a 0.71% increase.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that as of December 9, the total return of the S&P 500 index in 2021 was 26%. From the end of April to December 9, the five tech giants contributed 13% of the gains, accounting for 51% of the index's total returns.

In addition, Goldman Sachs said that as of December 9, 25 stocks, including technology giants, contributed 58% of the index's returns, including dividend returns.

What are the fundamentals for next year?

Still, the stocks of tech giants are clearly volatile, so it's natural to know what giants investors buy next year.

Nvidia's stock price, for example, is down 18 percent from the high it hit on Nov. 22. Tesla fell into bear market territory three times in 2021, down 23% from the high it touched on Nov. 4.

Analysts such as Goldman Sachs' David Kostin noted that "the breadth of the market has shrunk significantly" over the past few months. In other words, investors are concentrating more money on some of the biggest tech companies by market capitalization, which of course means more concentrated risk.

Goldman Sachs analysts continue to advise long-term investors to "hold high-growth, high-margin stocks." According to Wall Street investment banks' estimates, Apple's revenue growth over the next two years is only 6%. Apple's sales and earnings growth is expected to be much slower by 2023 than the other companies in the top five on the list.

Tesla's projected two-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 31.7% is the highest on the list to date.

By 2023, Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 38.3%, 36.2%, and 21.3%, respectively.

Wall Street is not bullish on Tesla and Apple

But only 43 percent of analysts surveyed by FactSet rated Tesla as a "buy" rating.

According to Wall Street's expectations, Apple and Tesla, which have performed better this year, will perform poorly next year, with returns of 0 and -10% respectively in the coming year.

Among the tech giants, although Tesla's expected revenue and profit growth is the fastest, it is serious on Wall Street, and the stock price has reflected these expectations.

Nvidia and Amazon are Wall Street analysts' favorite stocks, with 21 percent upside a year ahead.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet said they expect Pfizer's sales to rise in 2022, but in 2023 it will fall below this year's level. This may reflect expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end.