The policy landed, and the 100 billion-level market of "automotive black box" EDR may be detonated

Recently, the concept of "car black box" swept the market, and Qiming Information (002232. SZ), Derun Electronics (002055. SZ) and other related stocks ushered in a wave of rising boom. In the current situation that the main line of the secondary market is not clear, the plate rotation is fast, and so much capital attention can be obtained, where is this "car black box" that is halfway out?

01

What is a "car black box"

The name "black box" originated in the field of aviation, mainly used to record the change of performance parameters during aircraft navigation, and after an accident, it can provide data backtracking and analysis for search and rescue and liability determination. At present, the application of "black box" has been derived to a variety of means of transportation such as ships, trains, etc., but the application of "black box" in automobiles is still in a state of blue ocean.

In fact, as early as 2004, the state had put forward the requirements for installing driving recorders for relevant commercial vehicles in the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Road Traffic Safety Law of the People's Republic of China", but the driving recorder did not provide the ability to trace key data after the accident, and only shallow GPS and video data were recorded, which was far less than the performance requirements that should be achieved as a "black box".

And EDR is the "black box" of the car. EDR full name Event Data Recorder, is a car event data recording system, mainly used to record the vehicle before the collision, during the collision, after the collision of the three stages of the car operation of the key data, including speed, ABS state, vehicle braking state, steering wheel steering angle and other data, can objectively and comprehensively reflect the real state of the vehicle at the time of the accident, far more than the information that the dashcam can provide.

02

The policy landed, and the "black box of the car" became the standard

With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, driving safety has become one of the most concerned issues in society. In the past year, Tesla's "brake failure" news has emerged in an endless stream, people in order to protect their rights, many times with Tesla in court, but the development of the matter is like a "Rashomon" situation, the accident stems from hardware errors or improper operation of the driver is difficult to know afterwards, and there are layers of difficulties in the process of responsibility determination.

The emergence of EDR effectively solves the problem of liability determination, and the comprehensiveness of the data it records perfectly provides objective evidence for the judicial process. Therefore, the popularity of EDR will be a major trend in the future.

Internationally, in order to solve the relevant safety and judicial problems, many countries have formulated relevant regulations and standards on EDR to promote the installation of EDR: the US Road Traffic Safety Administration stipulates that all domestically sold vehicles after September 2014 must be equipped with EDR; Europe requires that new cars produced after March 2022 must be equipped with EDR, and from March 2024, stock cars must also be installed; Japan has the industry standard J-EDR, but it is not mandatory.

Due to the development of international trends and the frequent occurrence of security problems, my country has also reacted quickly to them. According to the "Technical Conditions for the Safety of Motor Vehicle Operation" (Amendment Order No. 2) issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which clearly states that "passenger cars shall be equipped with an event data recording system (EDR) that meets the regulations; if equipped with a vehicle video driving recording system that meets the regulations, it shall be deemed to meet the requirements", and the relevant regulations will be implemented on newly produced vehicles from January 1, 2022.

03

EDR may usher in a market of 100 billion

According to the data of high-tech industry research, the current EDR penetration rate in China is low, and only 1.3571 million new cars with EDR in 2020, and the market penetration rate is only 7.12%. However, with the implementation of policies, the market penetration rate of EDR is expected to increase significantly.

At present, the scale of China's automobile market continues to expand, automobile production has remained the world's first for many years, with a production volume of up to 25.225 million units in 2020, and the unit price range of China's EDR market is about 5000-10000 yuan (including data extraction kits). Conservative calculations, assuming that China's automobile growth rate in 2022 is zero, the EDR ratio of new cars is only 80%, and the market size of EDR in 2022 will also reach between 100.9 billion yuan and 201.8 billion yuan, and EDR has a market potential of 100 billion.

And the country's promotion of the EDR policy is unquestionable, because this is related to the safety of the people's lives, the EDR ratio of the new car will even reach 100%, with reference to the market performance after the implementation of the US policy, in 2019, the new car listed in the United States, the EDR matching ratio has been as high as 99%, And China's EDR market potential or under the impetus of the policy will be detonated in 2022.

Referring to the ETC industry, which also has policy promotion, as of December 31, 2019, the number of ETC users nationwide reached 204 million, and the market penetration speed was rapid. Compared with ETC, EDR is essentially an important device used to protect citizens' lives and property, which is more universal than ETC, so in terms of the intensity of policy implementation, EDR is also more mandatory, and ETC is only at the level of "recommended use". Therefore, as one of the "foundations" to ensure the rapid development of intelligent driving, EDR has become the focus of national attention and popularization, and it is believed that it will have a broader market size than ETC in the future.

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