The U.S. strategy of boycotting China is being implemented step by step. The democratic summit was held to distinguish between the enemy and the enemy; to rebuild the industrial chain, aimed at cutting off economic and trade ties with China. China must not impose economic sanctions easily, because doing so will lead to China becoming more passive.
Lithuania, a small Baltic country, allowed the establishment of a "Taiwan office," and the Chinese government immediately downgraded diplomatic relations to the rank of chargé d'affaires, a necessary punishment for Lithuania.
However, the domino effect has emerged, and some European Union countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ireland have said that they will follow Lithuania and strengthen official relations with Taiwan. Officials in Brussels have openly declared their support for Lithuania's approach, arguing that Lithuania's actions do not violate the "one-China" policy.
Some scholars in China believe that China should adopt economic sanctions to cut off economic relations with Lithuania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Ireland and other European Union countries, because only in this way can China's national dignity be safeguarded and other countries will not be moved by the wind. Frankly, this reliance on economic sanctions to resolve disputes is very dangerous.
First of all, from the perspective of international trade, China hopes to maintain trade relations with more countries, because only in this way can Chinese enterprises expand the scale of the market and China can achieve sustainable economic development with the help of import and export trade. If sanctions are imposed on other countries at every turn, although politically and diplomatically necessary, the economic gains outweigh the losses.
This is because China is the largest developing country in the world, and in many areas China does not have a very obvious comparative advantage. Although China is the world's largest trading country, it is also a country with a complete range of industries. However, China's dependence on imports and exports is deepening, and china must maintain trade relations with more countries.
From the perspective of practical effects, China's imposition of sanctions on Lithuania has not changed Lithuania's position, and at the same time, it has not dealt a fatal blow to Lithuania's economy. The reason for this is that Lithuania is a relatively small economy, a country that is quite competitive in the field of laser technology, and can sustain the livelihoods of millions of people by exporting laser technology products alone. Regardless of whether Lithuania's China policy is seriously wrong, if the economic and trade relations with Lithuania are completely severed, it will be very unfavorable to the import of China's laser technology products.
In the same way, Australia is a well-known mineral exporter, cut off economic and trade relations with Australia, China will have to obtain mineral resources from Africa and Latin America, and the production costs of Chinese enterprises may increase. Therefore, from the perspective of imports, cutting off economic and trade relations with some countries is not very beneficial to China's economic development.
Of course, from the perspective of exports, although China is the most important trading partner of many countries, the products exported by China are replaceable, that is, China's export products can be replaced by other countries. Therefore, if China bans the export of products to some countries, it may lead to significant losses for Chinese enterprises, and the relevant countries can find other import channels. This is very unfavorable to safeguarding the legitimate interests of Chinese enterprises. Therefore, from this point of view, when China imposes trade sanctions, it must take into account both political factors and the development of economic and trade relations.
It is very easy to sabotage economic and trade relations, but it is very difficult to restore and develop economic and trade relations. If some countries find alternative import channels, Chinese companies will face greater challenges if they want to re-enter these countries to sell their products. Therefore, it is best not to adopt economic sanctions until the last resort, so that the import and export of Chinese enterprises will be seriously affected.
China is the largest developing country in the world. This pattern will not change in the short term. As a developing country, the competitiveness of China's export products needs to be further improved, and the potential of the Chinese market needs to be further tapped. China's reduction of economic sanctions against other countries is not to swallow its anger, but to judge the hour and size up the situation and comprehensively consider China's gains and losses.
If economic sanctions imposed on other countries lead to damage to China's economic interests, then such economic sanctions should be lifted as soon as possible. We must not safeguard the dignity of the so-called great powers in a way that harms the legitimate interests of Chinese enterprises, because that will inevitably be ridiculed by other countries.
Second, China is a member of the World Trade Organization, and upholding the rules of the World Trade Organization is China's consistent proposition. If sanctions are imposed on other countries at every turn, it is possible to give the impression that China, as the world's largest trading nation, uses its trade status for political or geopolitical purposes. This is something that China does not want to see.
China hopes that all countries will abide by the rules of the World Trade Organization and not harm China's national interests and the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. If some countries adopt unfriendly policies toward China and make a big fuss over the Taiwan issue, seriously harming China's national interests, China will certainly rise up to fight back.
Economic sanctions are often a double-edged sword, causing damage to other countries while also harming China's own interests. If not carefully operated, it may lose both sides, and may even bring greater harm to China.
As one has seen, capitalist countries are mercenary, and China imposes economic sanctions on some countries, and others may profit from them. China refused to buy Boeing's planes, and Boeing suffered losses, but Airbus would benefit. That's because China has no say in the civil aviation market, and it has to buy Boeing or Airbus planes. China imposed sanctions on Australia to buy food and mineral resources from the United States, and the United States profited from them. It cannot be ruled out that some countries will continue to take advantage of the contradictions between China and some countries to continue to obtain benefits from the Chinese market in the form of entrepot trade.
If China imposes sanctions on some countries, these countries are likely to continue to export to China with the help of third countries in order to retain the Chinese market. This is extremely unfavorable to the development of China's trade and extremely unfavorable to safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. It is imperative to be fully aware that the capitalist countries do whatever it takes to achieve their commercial ends. China should make full use of the rules of the international market, especially the rules of the World Trade Organization and the rules of the international futures and options market, to achieve the goals it wants to achieve.
If economic sanctions are imposed on a country, then it is necessary to play a "combination of fists" to make a noise in the spot market, and at the same time, to use short trading in the futures market to obtain commercial benefits from it. Because only in this way can some countries be forced to change their minds. If only simple economic sanctions are imposed and commodities of certain countries are refused, then in the short term, it may bring inconvenience to the export enterprises of these countries, but due to the existence of international futures markets and options markets, some national enterprises are likely to use the international futures and options markets to engage in capital transactions and obtain more benefits from them.
In fact, when China is preparing to impose sanctions on some countries, international speculators often use the international futures and options market to profit from them. China must attach great importance to the general laws of the development of the international financial market and make good use of the international capital market to achieve its own goals. If we do not understand the relationship between the spot market and the futures and options market, do not understand the trend of international finance, and do not understand the chain reaction of economic and trade sanctions, then China's economic sanctions may lead to greater losses for Chinese enterprises.
Third, China lacks a killer in economic sanctions. As people know, China does not have the right to speak in international finance and the right to formulate rules, and China imposes sanctions on other countries, often hanging on to one thing and losing sight of the other.
The fundamental reason why the United States imposes sanctions on other countries can produce a fatal blow is that the United States has an international financial information system and can understand the operating conditions of some countries and enterprises at any time and understand the direction of funds. Because the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency and payment currency of many countries, the U.S. financial system can learn about the transactions of enterprises in other countries anytime, anywhere, and impose a severe crackdown on some countries.
China does not have international financial information and cannot control the capital settlement systems of some countries, so China's sanctions against other countries are often symbolic and unlikely to have practical effects. If China grasps the economic lifeblood of a country, then the imposition of economic sanctions on that country will inevitably have an immediate effect. Unfortunately, China does not have the right to speak in international finance, but also does not grasp the key technical information, and China's economic sanctions against other countries are often difficult to achieve the desired effect.
Historically, China's imposition of sanctions on other countries may reduce imports into those countries, but it does not pose a mortal threat to these countries. As people have seen, in recent years, some countries such as Australia, India, Lithuania, Ireland and other countries have repeatedly provoked China, and China wants to reduce the volume of trade and impose economic sanctions on these countries. However, from the perspective of effect, the economic growth of these countries has not been seriously affected, on the contrary, the economies of some countries have recovered and developed, and their exports have increased.
This phenomenon occurs because the Chinese market is important, but because some countries hold commodities, they can use their resource advantages to expand exports. China imposed sanctions on Australia, but in the third quarter of 2021, Australia's imports and exports increased by as much as 35%, with imports and exports reaching $447.129 billion. This may explain why China has imposed sanctions on Australia and condemned the Australian government's China policy, while the Prime Minister of the Australian Government still makes a big fuss and creates trouble on the Taiwan issue. In the end, Australia is not afraid of China's economic sanctions, and Australia believes that under the protection of the United States, Australia is ready to launch a "war" against China.
Fourthly, it is not surprising that economic sanctions are hugely counterproductive. If China imposes economic sanctions on some free trade zone members, then other members of the free trade area will reduce the amount of trade with China and support the members' China policy. In the context of the "fragmentation" and "regionalization" of international trade, China's imposition of economic sanctions on some free trade zone members may lead to other members of the free trade zone imposing counter-sanctions against China, which is extremely unfavorable to China's development of foreign trade. Therefore, economic sanctions cannot be imposed unless absolutely necessary.
The United States is the initiator, and the United States is the main culprit in the deterioration of China's relations with other countries. But even so, U.S.-China trade continues to grow. This shows that economic sanctions, in many cases, do not have the desired effect. China's imposition of economic sanctions on some countries could lead to the success of the US strategic plot. After entering the White House, the Democratic president of the United States visited Europe twice, hoping to establish a strategic alliance to boycott China. However, there was no positive response from European countries. Now the DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES HAS DECIDED TO CONVENE A DEMOCRATIC SUMMIT TO RADICALLY CHANGE CHINA POLICY, USING SO-CALLED IDEOLOGY AND DEMOCRATIC FREEDOM AS A WEAPON TO DEMAND THAT STRATEGIC ALLIES LAUNCH AN ALLY AGAINST CHINA. At present, it seems that the US Democratic government's China policy may have practical results, and the European Union countries may adopt a boycott policy against China at the instigation of the United States. This is the result of the US Democratic president's "roundabout strategy", using ideology as a breakthrough point to boycott China.
If China sets out to address the legacies of the civil war, there is no doubt that the countries of the European Union will impose a collective boycott on China. Although some political party leaders in France openly oppose the US policy, and The European Union member Hungary opposes the US Government's China policy, more and more countries will join the ranks of sanctioning China under repeated persuasion and threats from the United States. China must be highly vigilant about this. On the one hand, we must make friends, strengthen economic and trade relations with some countries, and strive to closely link capitalist countries with China's commercial interests; on the other hand, we must step up diplomatic offensives to make more countries realize that the US China policy cannot achieve the desired results.
The author has pointed out many times that the tougher China's attitude toward the United States, the more national respect China can win in the international community. The world is "bitter for a long time in the United States." As long as China rises up, it can form a trend of destruction and decay. If China gains and losses and imposes sanctions on other countries, but gives in to the aggressive posture of the United States, then China will lose more partners and China's commercial interests will suffer great damage.