Just after attending the Meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Group of Seven (G7), which has been called an "anti-China club" by the media, US Secretary of State Blinken has embarked on a non-stop trip to Southeast Asia, visiting the region for the first time since taking office.
According to Reuters and Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on December 13, Blinken arrived in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, on the same day, he will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and deliver a speech on the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" on the 14th, followed by a visit to Malaysia and Thailand.
The report analysis believes that because southeast Asia has become a "key stage" for Sino-US competition, the dispute for influence between the two countries is becoming increasingly fierce, and the Biden administration is trying to strengthen economic and security cooperation with the region to reverse the various behaviors of "untrustworthiness" in Southeast Asia during the Trump administration and establish a "united front" against China.
To this end, Blinken's visit may not only negotiate economic cooperation frameworks with Southeast Asian countries, but also cooperation in areas such as defense, cybersecurity and space capabilities. Some experts have bluntly said that the usual practice of the US side to carry out such "cooperation" is to unabashedly exaggerate the so-called "Chinese military threat theory".
However, this time Blinken's first stop is to visit Indonesia, which has previously been "snubbed" by the Biden administration, in the early morning of December 13, when the Blinken plane has not landed, the Indonesian media "Jakarta Post" issued an article bluntly saying that Indonesia and the United States are not allies, "friendship is not deep", can cooperate, should keep a distance.
Other scholars argue that the United States wants to build an "anti-China alliance" in Southeast Asia, a goal that is unlikely to be achieved because the region also has to take into account China's attitude. Analysts also cautioned that it is also important for the United States to develop relations with other Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos compared with Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, but at the same time urged the Biden administration not to exaggerate the role of playing the "China card".
On December 13, local time, US Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, to begin his first trip to Southeast Asia. Pictured from the U.S. State Department spokesman Twitter
Trump "untrustworthy" in Southeast Asia, Biden "finds compensation"
According to Reuters, the trip to Southeast Asia is the first visit to the region since the Biden administration took office early this year.
Ahead of the trip, Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for foreign affairs in East Asia and the Pacific, told reporters that Blinken would closely follow U.S. President Joe Biden's goal of elevating engagement with ASEAN to an "unprecedented" level, with the focus of discussions on strengthening the region's security infrastructure under China's "bullying" and the vision of the U.S. Indo-Pacific economic framework.
In the Biden administration's view, Southeast Asia is critical to efforts to counter China's growing influence, but with the United States withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during the Trump administration, the region currently lacks formal economic cooperation structures, and its influence is limited, while China's influence is expanding.
While the Biden administration has yet to spell out what the envisaged economic framework will include, according to Krittenblink, it will focus on trade facilitation, the digital economy, supply chain resilience, infrastructure, clean energy, and labor standards.
Screenshot of the Reuters report
Analysts and diplomats say Blinken's trip may try to persuade Southeast Asian countries to accept U.S. companies that have shifted production from China as part of efforts to secure sensitive supply chains and develop financing, but there is no indication that he is willing to offer the region's desired access to the U.S. market.
Matthew Goodman, a regional economist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "It is incumbent upon this U.S. administration to come up with an economic strategy that demonstrates to our allies and partners that we are committed to long-term economic engagement in the region." The programmes currently being launched are promising in this regard, but they need to be further fleshed out. ”
In Goodman's view, the Biden administration's plans have limitations but remain attractive. "If you're vietnam, Indonesia or Thailand, you're trying to be the assembly and production site for Apple's redeployment, and these countries are interested in a lot of content and need to provide more details before convincing them."
Reuters also quoted an Asian diplomat who believes the Biden administration's series of moves this year showed a desire to step up engagement with Southeast Asia. "But they're not responding to China economically." "China is 20 years ahead in this regard, and what the United States needs to do to help less developed Southeast Asian countries, it is not enough to send aircraft carriers," he said. ”
Blinken is no longer "snubbing" Indonesia, and the local media is not buying it
For Blinken's trip to Southeast Asia, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported that some observers believe that the region's four-day trip to Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand is a "positive diplomatic gesture" after the US government has repeatedly reneged on its promises.
Screenshot of the South China Morning Post report
Take Indonesia, the first stop on the itinerary, which followed visits to Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines in July and August by U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and Vice President Harris, but many Indonesians felt "left out" in a series of "high-profile visits" by senior officials of the Biden administration.
Muhammad Arif, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Indonesia, said: "The (Blinken's) itinerary shows that the United States is considering Indonesia's central position in the region, and I think the American side is increasingly aware of the strategic value of cooperation with Indonesia." While Deputy Secretary of State Sherman and Assistant Secretary of State Krittenblink have also visited Indonesia, he believes the secretary's own visit highlights "Indonesia's importance in the eyes of the Biden administration."
Greg Poling, director of CSIS's Southeast Asia program, said the U.S. priorities in the region have always revolved around Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, with Indonesia not being among them and not paying enough attention to Indonesia's diplomacy since Biden took office. Earlier, analysts called on the United States to prioritize relations with Indonesia and highlighted Indonesia's "current and future influence in ASEAN."
However, for the United States to think of Indonesia at this time, some local media are not excited. Some media believe that Indonesia should keep a certain distance from the United States.
On December 13, indonesia's English-language daily newspaper Jakarta Post published an article titled "India-U.S. Relations: Mr. Blinken, Let's Drink Coffee." " comment article. The article compares the relationship between allies and partners to the relationship between the two people who went to drink beer and coffee after meeting, in order to emphasize that for historical and ideological reasons, Indonesia and the United States can only be regarded as partners in drinking coffee, not allies who drink alcohol, which means that the relationship between the two countries is "not hot".
Screenshot of the Jakarta Post report
Uniting Southeast Asia against China? Scholars: America's "Dreams Are Hard to Come True"
Traveling to the three Southeast Asian countries, in addition to talking about the framework for economic cooperation, the South China Morning Post pointed out that Blinken's first visit to the region also means that the United States will further expand cooperation with Southeast Asia, in the fields of defense, cybersecurity and space capabilities.
Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth reportedly claimed in a video event at CSIS that the U.S. military's focus footprint needs to expand from northeast Asia in the traditional sense to Southeast Asia, strengthen cybersecurity and space capabilities, and prepare for a "potential conflict" with China.
To this end, Worms also said that the U.S. Army is conducting space and cyber-warfare exercises to strengthen military ties with Indonesia, Thailand, India and other countries. A CSIS researcher in Indonesia believes the United States may work with Indonesia to help build cybersecurity capabilities and help train Indonesia's intelligence agencies.
Collin Koh, a researcher at the Rajalenan Institute of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, bluntly argues that the U.S. approach to these things is unabashed, using the so-called "Growing Military Threat from China" as a "proof" to promote such cooperation.
However, these "emerging but sensitive areas" are most likely to attract countries with long-standing defense and security ties to the United States, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, but for Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, there is little incentive to strengthen defense and security relations with the United States, all within The sphere of China's strategic and economic influence, which will prioritize the development and maintenance of economic and strategic ties with China.
Drew Thompson, a senior visiting scholar at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and a former Pentagon official, believes that U.S. Secretary of war Warren Worms' remarks mark a change in the strategic outlook of the U.S. military, which previously focused primarily on the Korean Peninsula.
He argues that what Worms said was a slow and steady expression of commitment that didn't happen immediately, and that she sought to get people to think about more diverse relationships and resources so that the U.S. military would have more opportunities to consider cooperation in Southeast Asia.
But Carl Thayer, a political science professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, argues that "every bilateral relationship needs to develop at a pace that is comfortable for the recipient country", and that the United States wants to build a network of allies and partners willing to confront China [in Southeast Asia], which is unlikely to be achieved.
Here, the South China Morning Post mentioned that in 2016 South Korea agreed to deploy the US "THAAD system", which triggered strong opposition from the Chinese side, and finally the South Korean government changed its position to protect economic interests.
RSIS researcher Colin Gao noted that Southeast Asian countries would not openly support the deployment of sensitive U.S. missiles, such as THAAD, for fear of angering China.
At the same time, Collin Gao also stressed that even if "China is a prominent factor", not all U.S. security contacts should be handled by playing the "China card". "The United States needs to be very careful about the political sensitivities of Southeast Asia, which determine the scope and extent of defense activities."
"Allowing the 'China threat' factor to override such concerns cannot be equated with a good policy of deeper military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries," he said. ”
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.