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"Quiet, as usual."
The source of this article is "Deep Burning" (ID: shenrancaijing), which is reprinted by Tencent Venture with permission.
Author / Zou Shuai
Editor / Tang Yahua
This year's double 12 quietly came.
On December 7, 5 days before double 12, Taobao stores finally hung up the label of "12.12, 0 o'clock to enjoy, every 199 minus 25", and Tmall stores waited until December 10 to slowly reveal the words "every 200 minus 20".
Looking back at this year's Double 11, on October 13, Li Jiaqi released a selection list on Weibo, announcing that "Double 11 is coming!" "On October 20, the major anchors began broadcasting, and merchants began the first wave of deposit pre-sales. In the early morning of November 1, consumers stayed up late to pay the final payment, rested for 10 days, and brushed another day of Taobao on November 11, making up several waves of full losses.
Double 12, which is not hurried, the platform is quiet, and the actions of the big anchors are also less. On December 5, Li Jiaqi sent a Weibo to comfort consumers that "double 12 has some", and only released the selection information on December 10. Consumers also feel the gap, post-90s consumer Xiaoyu described: "Double 11 is to feed the preferential information into my mouth, double 12 I myself can not get it." ”
Before there is a double 11, after the New Year's Day promotion, double 12 has always been an awkward shopping festival, neither too preferential, but also can not be without discounts. This year's situation is more special, double 11 no longer send war reports, after the holiday encountered L'Oréal was accused of false publicity, big anchors were fined for tax evasion, beauty and apparel industry complaints soared and other events, coupled with the face of raw materials, inventory, logistics pressure and other situations, double 12 is more difficult.
The era of not needing double 12, is it really coming?
1
No demand, not enough discounts,
Consumers don't need Double 12
Consumer enthusiasm has plummeted in Double 12, mainly because of the month-long battle of Double 11, which has covered most people's consumption needs.
Jiang Jiang, a post-90s consumer, is a consumer who does not plan to participate in Double 12 grandly. "Just past the double 11, I spent more than 20,000 yuan, skin care makeup spent more than 5,000 yuan, mobile phone more than 8,000 yuan, bought a physical examination card for my parents 2,000 yuan, HPV vaccine 3,500 yuan, clothes spent more than 3,000 yuan, household items and snacks also cost more than 1,000 yuan."
For Jiang Jiang, she bought the just needs that must be hoarded and the things that were temporarily planted in the live broadcast room, and she couldn't think of anything else that needed to be grabbed for the time being. Xiaoyu, like Jiang Jiang, bought double 11 from toilet paper to LCD TV, from socks to down jacket, everything is available, the upcoming double 12, she also has no shopping plans.
Xiaoyu believes that the most valuable way to play double 12 is only cross-store full reduction. Because the offers of Double 12 are mainly concentrated in small Taobao stores, commonly known as C stores. Most of the preferential routines of these Taobao stores are cross-store full reductions, store coupons and new special offers on the platform, and it is difficult to lay out several channels to carry out discounts like the Tmall flagship stores of Double 11.
"Double 11 buys skin care cosmetics and other just needs in the Tmall flagship store, and Double 12 makes up for it in the Taobao store." Xiaoyu succinctly summarized his playing style in the two shopping festivals.
This year's double 12 offer is also "hiding and hiding". A Little Red Book netizen shared her experience and said, click "My Taobao", enter the "Double 12 Main Venue" in the middle of the page, and pull down for a while to find a secret double 12 red envelope full of 100-10 yuan.
In contrast, double 11, Taobao's preferential red envelopes are much more high-profile. Some consumers told Deep Burn that they called on relatives and friends to help them order meow candy every day, and finally hoarded 410 yuan of coupons, and took a bottle of the original price of 1160 yuan in a net red live broadcast room for 288 yuan.
Not only has the platform discount become smaller, but the discount of big anchors is also slightly weak. On December 10, Li Jiaqi finally announced the list of double 12 selections, from more than 400 pieces of double 11 to more than 100 pieces. Among them, some double 11 discount products returned to the market, but the discount was weak.
Jiang Jiang was also a little disappointed after reading the list, "The same is the Kwadi cream, double 11 is to buy one get one free also send 10 samples and 3 pieces of mask, double 12 into a formal dress to send several times toss and a spray." ”
The price of the same item on Double 12 (top) and Double 11 (bottom).
Source / Li Jiaqi's official WeChat public account
Similar products also have Estée Lauder small brown bottle, double 11 and double 12 set down are 530 yuan, but the difference is that double 12 than double 11 less than two 1ml of foundation liquid samples, giveaway makeup bag also from down bag, tassel bag two choose one into a printed makeup bag. Xiao Yu complained, "Even 2ml of foundation liquid is reluctant to send?" ”
There are also cases of price increases and conversion to formal dresses for small samples. EVE LOM cleansing cream in the double 11 is to buy one get one free formal wear, to double 12, the send is not the formal dress, but two 20ml and two 5ml, added together to make up a formal amount. The Price of the Kaishijie Foot Soaking Bucket is directly 10 yuan higher than double 11, from 266 yuan to 276 yuan.
There are few platform offers, anchors have not done too much warm-up, and merchants are not enthusiastic, so that consumers almost do not feel the festive atmosphere of the big promotion for many reasons. Jiang Jiangdu, who loves to buy and buy, said that he did not see any attractive preferential mechanism, "not inspired by the fighting spirit of perfect orders." ”
2
Loss, accompany the run, the merchant can not play double 12
Tmall merchant Li Qin opened the store for less than a year and participated in this year's Double 11 and Double 12. During the double 11 period, sales in his store increased significantly. "On November 1 and November 11, the daily sales volume on these two days was 3 to 4 times that of usual." He said that this number is still passable, "but compared with before, some merchants may be able to double 11 sales topped the sales volume of the previous one and the last half of the month, and that kind of grand situation cannot be copied." ”
Double 12, in the growth of daily sales, Li Qin predicted that it will not be higher than double 11, and it will be up 2 times more than usual. "Because the promotion period is particularly crowded, so many merchants are doing activities, can only say that the platform has a little feedback to KA merchants, for new stores and new brands like us, it is to accompany the run."
"There are at least three products in a brand store, one is explosive products, which do not require complex consumption decisions, one is to play gimmick drainage, such as joint products, and one is a standing product, which refers to it to form a repurchase." Li Qin said that during the promotion period, the store chooses to promote the general explosive products, "because users do not need to think too much when buying, the conversion rate will be higher than other products, and the conversion rate is very necessary for such a node as the big promotion." ”
That is to say, when merchants participate in the promotion, the first thing to look at is the ability of instant conversion of goods, not necessarily the profit of a single product. Therefore, for small tao shops that cannot take out high conversion rate goods to participate in the promotion, it is possible to lose money.
"The customer's first order is basically a loss for the merchant, but the difference between losing more and losing less." Li Qin explained that under normal circumstances, the loss that the merchant can afford during the promotion is 10%, "for example, buy 2 get 1, a piece of 50 yuan, I received 100 yuan, sent three pieces, not counting water and electricity logistics labor, etc., if the cost of each piece is thirty or forty yuan, this 100 yuan is collected, it may cost about 10 yuan." ”
Therefore, Li Qin thought very clearly, the big promotion should participate, but don't expect too much.
Taobao beauty and skin care merchant Arou refused to accompany him.
She told Deep Burn that according to the activities given by Taobao, it is 200-20, 200-25, and 200-30, "so at least 10% discount must be taken." She feels that if the price is not raised first and then reduced, the merchants who cannot rely on brand reputation and transaction volume to win are losing money.
"It's not that you can't afford to play, it's unnecessary." Ah Rou told Shen Yan that participating in the Taobao official promotion activities is to get the amount of access to the store, few people point to it to make a pot full of pots, "Taobao store has been open for nearly 10 years, now my focus has shifted to doing private domain, Taobao is just placed there as a purchase channel, convenient after-sales, why bother to participate in the activity again? ”
Ah Rou has recently been busy with new, supplemented by some preferential activities, "I do not participate in the activities of the platform, but choose to engage in double 12, through the big promotion of the head, to give the old customers preferential prices." ”
Participating in the promotion, the troubles of merchants are not only to lose money and make money, but also some merchants have become cannon fodder for cross-store full reduction. Many consumers have released experience on social platforms that when they can't get the full amount of reduction, they can choose a dozen or twenty yuan of goods to make up a single, when paying, the full reduction amount will be evenly distributed to each product, the price will be lower, and then return the cheap goods of the order.
Taobao C store is not very interested, Tmall store is also slightly tired.
Some insiders said to Shen Yan that basically after the 99 promotion, brands began to prepare to enter the fighting state of Double 11. From Li Jiaqi's release of the complete selection list on October 13, it can also be seen that the preparation of double 11 is not an overnight thing. After finalizing the discount, docking the anchor, laying the publicity, and completing the double 11 promotion for nearly a month, the brand still has to spend time reviewing and adjusting, and there are not many people who can spare the power to engage in double 12.
3
Why is Double 12 embarrassing?
This year's double 11 is not peaceful, and it is also involved in the double 12 that follows.
First there was the L'Oréal false propaganda incident. On October 20, the pre-sale, L'Oréal Bottle Mask on Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya's live broadcast room, the price is 429 yuan 50 pieces, known as the biggest strength of the year. Just after the pre-sale, L'Oréal issued tens of thousands of coupons in the live broadcast room of its flagship store, resulting in the lowest price of this mask as low as 257 yuan, nearly half cheaper. After some operation, the trust relationship between L'Oréal and the big anchor has been greatly impacted. Industry insiders also believe that after the dispute, anchors may be more low-key and more cautious in double 12.
Not only L'Oréal, according to the "2021 "Double 11" Consumer Complaint Data Report" released by Black Cat Complaints, during the Double 11 period, the effective complaint volume related to shopping platforms, beauty and apparel and freight logistics increased more, of which the effective complaint volume before and after the double 11 of the beauty and apparel industry increased by 3858%. The number of complaints from Ti Jiating, FILA, Winona and OLAY increased significantly during the double 11 period, and the reasons for complaints focused on the problem of insuring prices, failure to ship according to the agreed deadline, ineffective communication with customer service, and false publicity.
Then there is the tax evasion incident of Sydney, the third largest anchor of Taobao, and Lin Shanshan, the anchor of the same company, who were recovered from taxes, charged late fees and fined 65.5531 million yuan and 27.6725 million yuan respectively, and on December 9, their Weibo was suspended.
This series of events has more or less affected the combat effectiveness of merchants, anchors and consumers in Double 12.
However, leaving aside the various disputes of this year's double 11, in fact, the position of double 12 has been very embarrassing. Zhuang Shuai, founder of Bailian Consulting, believes that Double 12 is in the middle of Double 11 and the New Year Goods Festival, first of all, this time node is not very optimistic, and it is difficult for the platform to tap the huge consumption potential, and it is more stressful to make features.
"Double 11 is Ali's core promotion, and it is difficult to cultivate a second big promotion to compete with it. Because the promotion itself has to invest a lot of resources, if the effect of the output is not enough, the significance of the promotion is not great. Therefore, like JD.com's 618 and Ali's double 11, they basically precipitate a core shopping festival. Zhuang Shuai told Deep Burning.
Special events such as brand rollovers and anchor fines may have some impact on consumer decisions in a short period of time, but in Zhuang Shuai's view, the rollover of individual brands will not completely affect the promotion involving the participation of hundreds of brands. "These special circumstances are not absolute correlation factors, the real correlation factors are raw materials, production, inventory, logistics, and a series of follow-up work after the end of a promotion." He said that factors at the organizational, social and industrial chain levels will make two adjacent promotions that are too close to each other affect each other.
Not only are the adjacent double 11 and double 12 too close, but also the festival is already a common thing for major e-commerce platforms. New Year's Festival, 38 Queen's Day, 521 Shopping Festival, June 1st, 618, Summer, 99 Bargain Festival, etc., too intensive promotional offers have greatly weakened the ritual sense of Double 11, not to mention the already weak Double 12.
In addition, there are live broadcast rooms that are like shopping festivals every day, and the low prices are no longer mysterious numbers, but slogans that are shouted once a day.
According to industry insiders, each promotion has its specific category tendencies, such as 38 Queen's Day focusing on female consumption, summer promotion focusing on student supplies, double 12 because it is at the end of the year, tending to fast moving consumer goods and food and so on. However, for consumers, this division is not very clear, and the brand still leaves the impression that they are discounting every day and participating in every promotion.
Even in the era of no online shopping festival, offline retail industry will have the concept of off-peak season and promotion season, but perhaps there is not much nominal shopping festival. Today, it is the double 12 that is gradually not needed, and which festival will it be tomorrow?
*The caption and illustrations in the text are from Visual China. At the request of the interviewees, Xiaoyu, Jiang Jiang, Li Qin, and A Rou were pseudonyms.
END
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