Near the end of the year, in order to withdraw more liquidity and achieve better sales performance, the intensity of price reduction promotions has recently become larger and larger. Therefore, in the recent period, not only have many fans consulted the author whether he should buy a house now, but many friends around him have called to consult the author. It can be seen that the decline in house prices in recent months has not dispelled many people's desire to buy a house, of course, some people are really just in need of housing and need to buy a house. And some people are optimistic about the future trend of house prices, hoping to be able to sell houses at the bottom.
In fact, whether it is a real buyer who just needs to buy a house or some investors who invest for the purpose of investment, they are currently worried about a problem, that is, the continuous decline in house prices. Needless to say, the last thing they want to see is the fall in house prices, hoping that house prices will continue to rise. For buyers who just need it, their trend of house prices is very contradictory, on the one hand, they hope that house prices can fall and reduce their cost of buying a house, but they really wait until house prices fall, they dare not buy a house. The reason why people have this ambivalence is also very simple, that is, although the current house price has fallen somewhat, the overall house price is still in a very high position. Many buyers who just need to buy a house now will not only spend their savings and the savings of an entire family, but also carry a huge mortgage for twenty or thirty years. That is to say, people will pay all their wealth to buy a house in the future, and once the house price falls, it means that people's wealth will depreciate.
Therefore, when it is really time for house prices to fall, whether they are just need buyers or investors, they are no longer in a hurry to buy a house, and they have begun to stop and watch. As the saying goes, "buy up, don't buy down", this sentence is really very appropriate to use in the current property market. In addition, affected by the tightening of credit policies, the second-hand housing loan business is now affected, the threshold for buying a house has been greatly increased, while the mortgage interest rate has risen sharply, and the cost of buying a house has increased, which is also the reason why many people are reluctant to buy a house at present. But for housing companies, buyers can wait for a while, and they don't have time to wait. Affected by the "loan restriction order" and the "three red lines" policy, the financing of housing enterprises has been blocked, and the sales collection has now been affected, so most housing enterprises are now facing a tight capital chain. In this case, in the past, the business model of high debt and high turnover of housing enterprises has been unsustainable, and many housing enterprises have done everything in their power to sell houses to withdraw funds.
According to the official website of the central bank on September 27, the third quarter regular meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee was held on September 24, and the content of the meeting was hotly discussed. In this regard, many experts and scholars said that the most stringent moment of property market regulation and control policies has passed. This meeting mainly analyzed the current financial situation and existing problems in the real estate market, and proposed "two safeguards" for the current status quo of the real estate industry: that is, to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
Judging from the content of the central bank's regular meetings over the years, this is the first time since 2009 that the central bank has mentioned real estate in its regular meetings, so the signal released by this meeting is very rare. More importantly, at a time when the current property market is in a predicament, the central bank's statement is a hammer and a final word, giving people a lot of confidence in the current stable property market, which is a reassuring pill for many people. Therefore, the content of this meeting plays a very important role in stabilizing the current market expectations and enhancing people's confidence in the property market. In addition, the China Real Estate News, which is in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also published a special article saying:
The rare mention of real estate at the central bank's regular meeting indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the real estate market is undergoing a subtle change, and the most stringent time of the mortgage policy may have passed, and the next credit policy will be under pressure, rather than tightening across the board.
It can be seen that for the central bank's statement of "safeguarding the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", although there are few words, the attitude is very clear, and the central bank has made up its mind about the current unpredictable property market, which has a far-reaching impact on the future development of the property market. Immediately after, the property market is expected to usher in 3 good news, and two types of people may benefit from it.
1, the rights and interests of home buyers will be guaranteed, in these two "maintenance", one of which is "to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers". Since the beginning of this year, affected by the "loan restriction order" and the "three red line policy", the capital chain of many housing enterprises has become more and more tense, and the capital chain of many housing enterprises has been broken, and the operation has been abnormal or even bankrupt. For these abnormal and bankrupt housing enterprises, behind them are one after another stopped real estate, these real estate is either delayed delivery and quality problems, or bad end. It can be seen that no matter which one it is, it seriously infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers. At present, after proposing to "safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", it means that those buyers who have purchased off-plan houses and are ready to buy off-plan houses can rest assured.
In addition, since the second half of this year, affected by the tightening of the credit policy in the property market, not only many banks have stopped or slowed down the second-hand housing loan business, but also the mortgage interest rates in many cities have risen sharply, and the rise in mortgage interest rates has greatly increased people's purchase costs. After October, the mortgage policy in many cities across the country has begun to loosen, not only the speed of lending has increased significantly, but also the mortgage interest rate has also been reduced by different margins. The reduction in mortgage interest rates is good news for buyers who just need it.
2, housing enterprises can also develop with peace of mind. Since the central bank began to strictly investigate the flow of illegal funds into the property market in 2019, the funds in the real estate industry have begun to tighten, and in 2020, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank have jointly issued the "three red lines" new regulations, which has led to the pressure of most housing enterprises to reduce liabilities. Nowadays, most housing enterprises are facing the problem of tight capital chain, and even face the risk of capital chain breakage and bankruptcy. Now the central bank has expressed its position through "maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market" to maintain the healthy development of the real estate industry, which also means that housing enterprises do not have to worry about the policy.
For the follow-up property market regulation and control policy, although it will not be relaxed, the regulation and control policy will become more and more refined and precise, and it cannot be one-size-fits-all. Some professionals suggest that we should focus on financial support for stable housing enterprises that meet the "three red lines", after all, only with the support of funds, the real estate industry can continue to develop healthily. For this problem, the central media Economic Daily also commented that some enterprises with healthy financial indicators and relatively abundant funds are expected to further expand their advantages in the face of the current industry's reshuffle.
3. The future of the property market will be mainly stable. It can be seen from the central bank's "maintenance of the healthy development of the real estate market" that stabilizing the property market is still the main goal of the current regulatory policy. Since China began to regulate the property market in September 2016, the regulation policy has been introduced around "housing not speculation" and "stable property market", and now the central bank has once again made it clear, which means that the regulation will still adhere to this tone.
Obviously, the central bank's statement has given people a reassurance, and through the trend of house prices falling in recent months, it can be seen that the decline in house prices is not something that many buyers who just need to buy are willing to see. Although buyers just need to buy houses want house prices to fall, they do not want house prices to continue to fall after they buy a house. Therefore, the stable trend of house prices can create a favorable atmosphere for buyers to buy houses, and they do not have to worry about the sharp rise in house prices that lead to their inability to buy a house, nor do they have to worry about the loss of the house they bought due to the fall in house prices. As long as house prices maintain a sustained and stable trend, speculators will slowly withdraw from the property market if they cannot benefit, and house prices will slowly return to reasonable levels.
Summary: In view of the property market policy in recent months, the purpose of the current property market regulation is to stabilize the property market and achieve the healthy development of the real estate market. Although the regulation and control policy has not been relaxed, with the recent policy changes, a more "friendly" regulation and control policy has been passed on, which means that the future regulation and control policy will not be "one-size-fits-all". And such a stable property market trend, two types of people or will benefit from it: 1, just need to buy a house, stable house price trend is conducive to just need buyers to buy a house, not only do not have to worry about the house price continues to rise to cause can not afford to buy, do not have to worry about the house price fell; 2, has bought a house buyers, with the loosening of the property market credit policy, the capital chain of tight housing enterprises will also "breathe a sigh of relief". Only when housing enterprises operate normally, the property market can be constructed and delivered normally, and the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers will also be protected.