What is history: it is the echo of the past to the future, the reflection of the future on the past. - Hugo
When the Central Government of the Tang Dynasty regained Chang'an and Luoyang, the Anshi rebels seemed to see no future.
The recapture of Chang'an means that the Anshi rebels have completely collapsed on the two major battlefields in the northwest and Shanxi; the recapture of Luoyang means that the rebels have completely collapsed on the battlefield of the Central Plains. When the rebels retreated to a corner of Hebei, they seemed to be already struggling to the death.
More importantly, An Lushan was long dead, and the legitimacy of An Qingxu's ascension to the throne seemed to be in question, because the popular saying was that he had killed his father and ascended to the throne.
Even if An Qingxu was legally on the throne, with his seniority and the power structure of an An Lushan's lineage, An Qingxu would not be able to effectively control those close assistants of An Lushan.
In this context, the An Shi rebels were divided into two major parts at that time: one part was the power represented by An Qingxu, who was centered on Yecheng; the other part was the force represented by Shi Siming, and they were centered on Fan Yang.
Under the blows of the Tang government army, the atmosphere of surrender spread among the Anshi rebels. If you don't know the later history, I believe that no one will think that the Anshi rebel army will soon be destroyed.
At this time, An Qingxu had no way back, because he was the Emperor of Great Yan, and whether he surrendered or not, it was impossible to be pardoned, and the backbone members of the Yan State were probably the same.
What about the people below, who are involved in the cause of information asymmetry, certainly do not dare to surrender easily, and who dares to guarantee that the Tang government will not settle accounts after the autumn?
For Shi Siming, there were about three choices at that time.
The best strategy was to kill An Qingxu and lead the Yan army alone to complete An Lushan's unfinished business.
This choice sounds very grandfatherly, but at the time it would not have won much support, because the Anshi rebels are now embattled, and if the two leaders are in flames, it will only accelerate the outbreak of the crisis.
Regardless of size, An Qingxu was also the Emperor of Great Yan, which would make it more difficult for Shi Siming to seize power.
The central policy is to unite sincerely with An Qingxu.
However, at this time, the suspicion between the two sides has become a success, and it is difficult to achieve cooperation.
First of all, there was a problem of ranking seats, and in theory, An Qingxu should be in the first place, because he was the Emperor of Great Yan. But the problem is that in terms of seniority and strength, Shi Siming seems to be in the first place, he is An Lushan's close comrade-in-arms, and he has been sitting in the old nest Fan Yang for a long time, and he is the strongest big man in the Yan Kingdom.
The establishment of the Yan state was too short, and the imperial power did not have time to consolidate at all, which made the relationship between Shi Siming and An Qingxu really awkward.
The next strategy is to surrender to Datang.
The surrender of Datang involves too many issues, and if it is a conditional surrender, I mean to retain de facto independence, then the suspicion between Shi Siming and the central government of Datang cannot be eliminated.
If it is an unconditional surrender and allows the Tang government to reorganize the rebels, it may be calculated by the Tang central government at that time.
However, after some calculation, Shi Siming still chose the next strategy, that is, to surrender to Datang.
Of course, this surrender is conditional, that is, to allow the central government of the Tang Dynasty to recognize the independence of Hebei in disguise.
When talking about the Tang Dynasty accepting Shi Siming's surrender, the history books often say that at that time, someone reminded the emperor not to trust Shi Siming, but the emperor did not pay attention to this issue.
Zhang Hao was simple in nature, not in the middle of anything, wen Shi Siming asked to surrender, and said: "Siming is dangerous, because of chaotic stealing, the strength is attached to the crowd, the power is taken away, although he is human,His heart is like a beast, it is difficult to be virtuous, and he is willing not to pretend to be authoritarian. He also said: "The defense of Huazhou makes Xu Shuji, cunning and deceitful, and will change in the face of difficulties, please recruit Su Wei." "At that time, he favored Na Siming, and the envoys from Fan Yang and Bai Malai all said that Siming and Shu Ji were loyal and trustworthy, and the pickaxe was used as an opportunity to do nothing, and Pengzi was dismissed as the defense envoy of Jingzhou; and cui Guangyuan was made the envoy of Henan Jiedushi.
In fact, this is all a statement on the table, which is simply unreliable.
In the eyes of the emperor, don't say that it is Shi Siming, a military bigwig with a previous criminal record, or a military bigwig like Guo Ziyi and Li Guangbi, who is rooted in the red, and he will not trust it.
As a military master, no matter how loyal he appeared, and no matter how close his personal relationship with the emperor, no matter how loyal he was, before he was restrained by civilian officials and the inner court, the emperor would consider him untrustworthy, because the emperor would never trust the loyalty of his courtiers.
It's as if the emperor is holding some three-corpse brain elixir in his hand, and he will always ask you consciously or unconsciously, do you want to eat one? If you say you don't want to eat, and you are loyal again, the emperor will not believe you.
In real history, the emperor always tried to send political commissars to the major military regions (these political commissars may be civilian officials or eunuchs in the inner court); if the military boss refused to do so, he showed loyalty, and the emperor would think that he was ill-intentioned.
Of course, the emperor will also try to exercise personnel power in the major military regions, and will let the administrative and economic supervisors in the military regions have the same status as the military bosses, and even let the administrative and economic supervisors override the military leaders.
If the military boss refused to do so, and he showed loyalty, the emperor would still think that he was ill-intentioned.
As a military boss, don't be loyal or unfaithful to the emperor, and don't think that you can perform and gain the emperor's trust.
If the military boss refuses the emperor's similar request, everything is nonsense, because the military boss refuses the emperor's similar request, and in the eyes of the emperor, he is a warlord.
In general, Shi Siming was credible and untrustworthy, and the emperor would know the answer if he thought about it with his heels.
First, can the emperor send political commissars at all levels to Shi Siming's jurisdiction? Definitely not.
Second, can the emperor mobilize Shi Siming's generals at all levels at will? Nature can't either.
Third, could the emperor make Hebei's administrative and economic supervisors have the same status as Shi Siming, and even let these administrative and economic supervisors override Shi Siming? Of course not.
That being the case, even if someone told the emperor that Shi Siming's loyalty could be expressed to heaven and earth, the emperor would only say a few superficial words, because from the depths of his heart, the emperor would definitely think, if he was really loyal to the heavens and the earth, why did he always refuse to eat my Three Corpse Brain Divine Dan?
In fact, for similar reasons, not to mention Shi Siming, that is, Guo Ziyi and Li Guangbi, after recovering Chang'an and Luoyang, the emperor always thought about how to cut their military power.
There is nothing wrong with a view in which a man says that Shi Siming is not credible, and the emperor does not think that his statement is wrong for this reason. The question is, what's next? If he had only told the Emperor that we could not accept Shi Siming's surrender, the Emperor would have thought that he was just talking empty words.
Accepting Shi Siming's surrender has nothing to do with Shi Siming's credibility and untrustworthiness. Shi Siming is not trustworthy, and the central government of the Tang Dynasty can also accept Shi Siming's surrender, and on this basis, it can also use political and diplomatic means to weaken Shi Siming.
For the current Tang Dynasty, if it has the ability to deal with the Hebei rebels with one blow, it will naturally not accept Shi Siming's conditional surrender. The problem is that Datang does not have this ability now.
This is not because the comprehensive strength of Datang is not enough, but now Datang is plagued by a problem, that is, who will lead the army to quell the Hebei rebellion?
Speaking from a general point of view, granting Guo Ziyi or Li Guangbi full authority to lead the major military regions to jointly encircle and suppress the rebels in Hebei will certainly succeed.
The problem was that by granting such a large amount of power to Guo Ziyi or Li Guangbi, if they regained Hebei, if they played a banner similar to the Qing Jun's side and suddenly killed them again, Tang Suzong would definitely be worse than Tang Xuanzong in the early days of the Anshi Rebellion.
In fact, at that time, various banners of "Qing Jun's side" had already been put forward in a hurry. The most classic thing is that both the King of Jianning and the crown prince tried to purge the empress and eunuch Li Fuguo.
Of course, for similar reasons, it is even more impractical to continue to let the prince lead the army to quell the rebellion in Hebei.
When Chang'an and Luoyang were recovered, the crown prince had not yet officially taken the title of prince, and the recapture of Chang'an Luoyang was planned to be a war to destroy the decay, and the area of the war was not very far from the power center of the Tang Dynasty, so the emperor had the confidence to let the prince lead the army.
Now that the crown prince has officially taken the title of prince, and attacking Hebei is easy to fight a stalemate, because Hebei is the home of the rebels, and the rebels are shrinking their troops there, it is estimated that it is impossible to achieve a victory of destroying the decay.
Geographically, Hebei was far from the center of power of the Tang Dynasty, and the crown prince led an army to attack Hebei for a long time, and when he returned to the division, he suddenly played the banner of the Qing Emperor's side, and Tang Suzong could soon become "Tang Xuanzong's second".
Let another prince lead the pacification of Hebei? It seems that it is also not feasible, because letting a prince have such a large military power is afraid that he will become Li Shimin's second at any time, and then the prince and the emperor will be in crisis.
All in all, this prince has done a great job in the world, the emperor and the prince are nothing, and they are trying to squeeze out this prince, and this prince has led people to launch a coup, who dares to say that it is not? Isn't that how Li Shimin played in the first place?
Let the eunuchs restrain the generals? This idea is feasible, but the disadvantages are even greater.
Therefore, although the Tang government at that time had an overwhelming advantage in comprehensive strength, it suddenly stagnated in the last moment of closing the net to solve the rebels.
As long as we can understand this dilemma of the Tang Emperor, we can naturally understand why the Tang government accepted Shi Siming's conditional surrender.
Only by accepting Shi Siming's surrender can we have the opportunity to use military pressure and administrative and diplomatic means to solve the Hebei rebels; and only by using this method to solve the Hebei rebels will we not let the military's power become more and more inflated.
There was nothing strategically wrong with accepting Shi Siming's surrender, as it would first exacerbate the division of the rebels.
In the simplest terms, Hebei soon split into two major groups, An Qingxu and Shi Siming, who were the main warriors.
On the surface, the central government of the Tang Dynasty made a serious mistake, that is, before An Qingxu could solve the problem, it was impatient to solve Shi Siming, so it forced the Shi Siming group that had descended to merge with An Qingxu.
In fact, if the Tang government did not seize the time to solve Shi Siming, it would not be able to attack An Qingxu on a large scale.
Based on the perspective of the Central Government of datang, it is certain that the Datang government sent troops to solve the problem of An Qingxu, who was entrenched in Yicheng, and Shi Siming could do a good job of cooperation; because only in this way could the Datang government extend its feet into the Hebei region to the greatest extent.
Based on Shi Siming's point of view, it is obvious that they should send an army to solve the anqingxu in Yicheng, and the Tang government can do a good job of cooperation, because only in this way can the central army be prevented from taking advantage of the situation to enter Hebei to the greatest extent.
On this issue, the two sides cannot negotiate.
The government army let Shi Siming lead the pacification of Yecheng, that is, to help Shi Siming achieve the unification of Hebei in disguise.
Shi Siming let the government army lead the pacification of Yicheng, that is, let Datang completely extend his feet into Hebei, and the next step was naturally to solve him.
No matter how good the promise made by the government army to Shi Siming is, it will definitely carry out large-scale cutting in the future.
Once the cutting of the domain begins, the military tycoons who have always stood on the side of the Tang Empire may not be able to end well. Once Shi Siming's rebel army is cut, can the future still be optimistically considered? Therefore, based on Shi Siming's point of view, the independence of Hebei must be maintained.
For similar reasons, the Central Government of the Tang Dynasty began to support Wu Cheng'en to replace Shi Siming before it could solve the problem of An Qingxu in Yecheng.
When Wu Cheng'en received the task issued by the central government of the Tang Dynasty, he also had three choices.
The best policy was to actively assist the central government in solving Shi Siming, and then replace Shi Siming as the highest military and political chief in Hebei.
The middle strategy is to accept the instructions of the Tang Emperor, but it does not do any specific actions and maintains superficial cooperation with Shi Siming. All in all, since he is not firmly on the side of the Tang government, he is not firm on the side of Shi Siming.
The next strategy is to actively side with Shi Siming, in short, the Datang government sent me to solve you, you have to be careful and wary.
Which choice is good, it is difficult to say, but one thing is certain, Wu Cheng'en chose the best strategy.
Wu Cheng'en replaced Shi Siming with the support of the central government, and his dependence on the central government was relatively large; and Wu Cheng'en did not take the initiative to rebel with An Lushan, he had always been a standard wall-riding faction before, so his fear of the central government was not as irresolvable as Shi Siming's.
In this sense, if Wu Cheng'en replaced Shi Siming and the central government attacked An Qingxu in Yecheng, it would be easy to gain the initiative.
However, when Wu Cheng'en entered Hebei to plot against military and political governors at all levels, he was discovered by Shi Siming and seized the definite evidence. So the people who assisted Wu Cheng'en in cleaning up Shi Siming were all cleared out by Shi Siming.
Si Ming Nai Ji ji general Zuo Min, westward crying: "The subject surrendered to the imperial court with 130,000 people, and he bears his majesty's burden, and wants to kill the subject!" "So he killed Cheng'en's father and son, and sat down with more than 200 people."
So far, the contradiction between the central government of datang and Shi Siming has completely intensified.
Before Wu Cheng'en died, he said that Li Guangbi had instructed him to do it.
So Shi Siming went to the central government and asked the emperor to hand over Li Guangbi's head, and the central government naturally could not accept this condition. So Shi Siming threw away the Tang dynasty flag and rebelled again.
The reason for Shi Siming's rebellion is very simple, we chose to surrender, the emperor actually wanted to take the opportunity to kill us all, can we not continue to rebel?
The point is that the so-called pseudo-government officials and employees were only coerced into participating in the rebellion, but the Tang Emperor still settled accounts with them after the autumn, and those of us who took the initiative to participate in the rebellion had any other choice than to continue to rebel?
At this point, the Tang government finally began to prepare for an attack on An Qingxu in Yecheng.
At this time, a full year had passed since the recapture of Chang'an and Luoyang.
Chang'an was recaptured in September 757 and Luoyang in October of the same year. The large-scale attack on Yecheng was at the end of September 758.
In the year after the recapture of Luoyang, the Tang government did not take advantage of the victory to pursue the rebels, what were they doing?
It is clear that it is rebuilding the administrative, military and economic systems.
But no matter how the Datang government rebuilds the administrative, military, and economic systems, there is also a problem that is difficult to solve, that is, how to control the army?
In the two Han Dynasties, the Three Kingdoms, the Two Jin Dynasties, the Southern and Northern Dynasties, and the early Sui and Tang Dynasties, the Empire did not have to consider this problem, because the military power of the Empire at that time was usually in the hands of the kings, foreign relatives, and representatives of the giants, so the main forces threatening the emperor were the kings, foreign relatives, and representatives of the giants.
The emperor fought with these forces for many years, and finally put them all in order, but a new problem emerged, that is, the kings, foreign relatives, and representatives of the magnates no longer threatened the imperial power, how to control the military power?
If the emperor wants to turn back the clock in history, he can directly reuse the kings, foreign relatives, and representatives of the giants, but the problem is that it is better to solve the problem in this way than not to solve the problem; because the threat to the imperial power of the kings and foreign relatives is more serious. Therefore, in the two hundred years from the Anshi Rebellion to the Chen Qiao Mutiny, although the military strength has been effectively controlled, no emperor has tried to solve it by reusing the kings and foreign relatives.
In this context, in order to launch a large-scale counterattack on Hebei, the Central Government of the Tang Dynasty prepared for a year, and finally used an extremely genius method, that is, to let the generals of the various armies have an equal status, and then let the Great Eunuch command the various armies in the middle, this kind of play is naturally beneficial to the control of the generals, but the combat effectiveness of the army cannot be guaranteed, so the Tang government army in the context of having absolute superiority, suddenly defeated by the rebels!
In general, Tang Suzong's dilemma is the same as that of Tang Xuanzong's era, that is, the Anshi rebels are very dangerous, and other armies are very reliable. If any army is not reliable, who can the emperor rely on?