"Golden Nine Silver Ten" no longer? Developers should stop dreaming, and spending the winter safely is the most realistic choice
According to data from the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the number of second-hand residential units in Shenzhen in October was 1605 units, down 9.1% month-on-month. Second-hand residential transactions reached 150,000 square meters, down 11.2% month-on-month. It is worth noting that the number of second-hand residential units in Shenzhen in October was the lowest since March 2012. The latest data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediaries Association also shows that the number of second-hand housing online signatures in Shenzhen in October was 1777 sets (including self-service), down 69% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, showing a continuous downward trend.
This also means that September and December, which has been considered the golden season of housing sales in previous years, not only did not usher in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" that can make developers smile, but may not even be "Copper Nine Iron Ten", but to be described as "bleak". Think about it, even Shenzhen, which has a strong housing consumption capacity, has a new low in the number of second-hand residential transfers in a decade, and other cities will not be much better. Such a result is obviously impossible for developers not to worry. Especially in the case that most developers are facing strong financial pressures, the downturn in the market will make the developer's life more difficult.
In fact, what developers need most at the moment is that the market is active, that is, the housing in their hands can be sold, and they can raise funds through asset realization as soon as possible to avoid the break of the capital chain. Perhaps, this is also a kind of market retribution. When the enthusiasm of residents to buy houses is relatively high, developers for their own interests, dead shoulder house prices, and even dead real estate, with buyers to carry out interest games, but also with decision-making level, management interest games. With the continuous development of the role of regulatory policies, the gradual maturity of the psychology of home buyers, no longer compared with the developer's arm strength, than the explosive force, but than the endurance, than the bearing capacity, the developer finally can not bear it, want to raise funds through the sale of houses.
Obviously, the market is no longer a seller's market, but a buyer's market. The right to speak in the market does not only belong to the developer, but gradually shifts to the side of the buyer. Even with more promotional means, buyers are calm and not impatient, and the developer is naturally anxious. In particular, developers with relatively high debt ratios and relatively large debt scales have become weaker and weaker, and the risk of capital chain breakage is getting bigger and bigger, so that Evergrande, R&F and other head housing enterprises have become no longer easy, and even the capital chain is broken.
Because of this, the real winter of the property market has arrived. Next, how can developers tide over the current difficulties and whether they can survive the winter safely will face a very severe test, and this test is not only for developers, but also for government decision-making. Because, if you relax the regulation policy because you see the "pitiful appearance" of the developer, then the regulation will be abandoned. If there is a risk of a break in the capital chain for the developer, no one can guarantee that there will be no local risk. Especially for head housing enterprises such as Evergrande, if the capital chain is broken, it may also cause systemic risks. How to find the balance is indeed a very severe test.
Objectively speaking, in the face of the problem of broken capital chains of developers, it is obviously inappropriate to see death and not save. Housing enterprises like Evergrande, which have a total debt of nearly 2 trillion yuan, must ensure that they can tide over the difficulties safely. The premise is that it must be based on business, not banks and governments. To do this, companies must speed up the transfer and sale of assets and raise debt repayment funds to the greatest extent. Banks' support for developers can only be limited to their temporary scheduling in the process of asset transfer or sale, and once the assets are successfully realized, they must immediately repay the new loans and gradually repay the existing loans. For incremental loans, special funds should also be earmarked, and it is never allowed to be diverted to other uses. Otherwise, the legal representative of the enterprise shall be held responsible.
In particular, what needs to be prevented is that if the developer plays with his heart and eyes on the issue of asset transfer or sale, only shouts and does not move, and occupies the bank loan funds for a long time, then the bank must withdraw the funds in time. If, under such circumstances, the development enterprise has the risk of a break in the capital chain again, it must immediately pursue the legal representative of the development enterprise. In other words, whether there will be risks to the development enterprise must be closely integrated with the personal responsibility of the legal representative of the enterprise. If the legal representative of the enterprise plays the strategy of the golden cicada and gives way to others, not only the person who takes over the position must bear legal responsibility, but also the original legal representative and the actual controller must also bear legal responsibility.
With regard to the problem of the broken capital chain of the development enterprise, the developer must not be allowed to share the burden with both hands, but must closely tie the responsibility with the developer and let the developer bear all the responsibilities that should be borne. Otherwise, they will be held criminally responsible. After all, such a huge debt cannot be passed in a single bankruptcy. You know, the development enterprise is not an entity enterprise, if it is an entity enterprise, the entrepreneur has paid hard labor and sweat, it is really because the market changes too fast, the scientific and technological progress is too fierce, can not keep up with the pace of economic development, eliminated by the market, understandable, can also use bankruptcy liquidation method. Development enterprises are different, from the beginning, it is to rely on debt to profit, of course, can not easily shirk responsibility, but must earnestly assume the responsibility that must be borne. If we want to shirk our responsibilities, we must bear legal responsibilities, and this must not be ambiguous. Therefore, the property market in front of us is by no means a "golden nine silver ten", but whether the developer can survive safely.