Transaction volume fell by 20% The property market "golden nine silver ten" color is no longer

21st Century Business Herald reporter Zhang Min Intern Tang Jue Beijing report The lively scene of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the past does not seem to apply to this year's real estate market.

Since the third quarter, due to the intensive introduction of regulatory policies by the central and local governments, the tightening of the credit environment, the lack of motivation for buyers to enter the market, the downward trend in market expectations, and the national real estate market has cooled down significantly. Data from a number of institutions show that in September and October this year, the size of transactions in the national real estate market declined, and price increases continued to slow. The property market "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has not lived up to its name.

According to the analysis of the online signature data of 25 first- and second-tier cities that were carefully observed, the property market turnover in September and October this year fell by more than 20% year-on-year due to the high base of last year. The China Index Academy also came to a similar conclusion, on the basis of the year-on-year decline already in September, the transaction size of 16 major cities fell by 24.6% in October.

In the first half of this year, the national property market still maintained a strong trading momentum. However, in the second half of the year, the credit policy was significantly tightened, and the approval and issuance cycle of mortgage loans was significantly extended, which made the enthusiasm on the demand side decline. On the supply side, although housing companies are still trying to increase their promotional efforts, the overall expectation has declined, resulting in difficulties in market transactions.

In this context, as the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" of the traditional marketing season, the market performance is relatively flat.

Taking Beijing as an example, statistics from the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center show that during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period in 2021, 8173 sets of new residential buildings and 21915 sets of second-hand housing houses were really traded in Beijing, and the overall transaction was only 30088 sets, a year-on-year decline of more than 25%. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in October fell below 10,000 units, setting a new low since April 2020.

Affected by the decline in trading, the trend of house prices has also stabilized. According to the statistics of the China Index Academy, in October 2021, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16189 yuan / square meter, up 0.09% month-on-month, and the increase has narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and fell to the low point of the year; up 3.08% year-on-year, the increase narrowed by 0.32 percentage points from the previous month.

In October, the average price of second-hand residential buildings in Baicheng was 16,026 yuan / square meter, down 0.04% month-on-month, the first decline in the index since its release in June 2020.

For the future market trend, most institutions believe that with the regulatory authorities successively releasing policy stability maintenance signals, and some cities have introduced supportive policies such as relaxing provident fund loans, issuing housing subsidies, regulating house price fluctuations, and adjusting pre-sale mechanisms, the market is expected to gradually recover. At the same time, near the end of the year, under the pressure of sales and financial pressure, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises will be improved, and various promotional activities may continue.

Therefore, market trading is expected to resume at the end of the year, but the momentum for a sharp rise in house prices is insufficient and it is expected to remain stable.

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