With the rise of China's power, in terms of international relations, the world is facing major changes unprecedented in a century, and the global spread of the epidemic has brought the relations between countries into a delicate situation. Having witnessed China's diplomatic storm for decades, how will diplomats with rich diplomatic wisdom view the changes and changes in the current international situation?
At the opening forum of Titanium Media T-EDGE X Global Connection Technology Month, Rui-Dialogue, the first international top dialogue IP "Rui-Dialogue", created by Titanium Media and hosted by Yang Rui, the "first person to communicate international English" and former famous host of CCTV International Channel, completed its debut. At the T-EDGE Ambassador Roundtable, Zhou Wenzhong, former Chinese ambassador to the United States, Hua Liming, former Chinese ambassador to Iran, and Su Ge, former Chinese ambassador to Iceland, and Yang Rui, international partner of Titanium Media, held a wonderful dialogue on the theme of "Globalization after the Epidemic and Sustainable Development in China".
The three senior diplomats have profound insights into international issues and global hot topics, and in this dialogue with the ambassadors, we further explored how to take the pulse of the global community of common destiny and find the best path for China's sustainable development.
Since the beginning of this year, internally, we are facing the challenge of the resurgence of the epidemic, and externally, we are facing more uncertain international situations, but all three ambassadors are optimistic about our current sustainable development issues.
In Zhou Wenzhong's view, in the face of the ever-changing international situation, for developing countries, there are always opportunities greater than challenges, and the same is true for China, because we always have a way to overcome difficulties and turn "crisis" into "opportunity"; Su Ge said that the epidemic will definitely have a major negative impact on the situation facing our future globalization, but at the same time, the pace of globalization is an important rule for the advancement of human society, and it will not be completely changed because of an epidemic. After reviewing the history of our country for nearly 40 years or so, Hua Liming believes that whenever we cross difficulties, opportunities may actually come.
On the issue of international relations, Sino-US relations are the object of discussion that can never be avoided. With the enhancement of China's economic strength and the improvement of its international status, the United States' view and positioning of China have quietly changed. While there are still common interests between the two sides, the ambassadors are also aware that the issue of partial decoupling has emerged and that globalization will not return to the situation it once was.
Although in large part, this is because this year is the time point of the US election. However, looking at the global scale, trade protectionism, unilateralism and populism are on the rise, and the problem of anti-globalization seems to be becoming more and more prominent.
Su Ge believes that under the instigation of the so-called "political correctness," the decoupling of China and the United States in high-tech and other fields is inevitable. Zhou Wenzhong believes that although the current domestic atmosphere in the United States does have many unfriendly places towards China, the two sides have already integrated too much into each other, and it is already difficult to decouple. Hua Liming said that we have passed the Cold War period, and the economy is the basis for friendly development with other countries, because with close economic exchanges, it is difficult to cut off the relations between countries.
We are in an era of great change, and overall, China has been trying to maintain a peaceful and stable diplomatic landscape. At the same time, we must also seek healthy and sustainable development.
Under such circumstances, SuGe believes that when we analyze the international situation, we must grasp the overall situation of the international and domestic situations, and know where we come from and where we are going. Hua Liming said that in China's diplomacy in the new era, we need to be humble, not to try to lead others in everything, and when dealing with countries around the world, we must let people get tangible benefits from their relations with China, so that mutual benefits and win-win results can obtain long-term relations.
But how can we avoid the middle-income trap at home, deal with the Thucydides trap outside, and ensure China's peaceful rise? And has the most important ballast stone that holds china and the United States, the "economic and trade relationship," changed? In the midst of change, how can we ensure the security of key areas such as finance and technology in the country?
All kinds of hottest issues about globalization, and more wonderful content collisions of the wise people, you can find the answer in the following dialogue. (This article was first published on the Titanium Media APP, editor/Li Chengcheng)
<h2>The following is the transcript of the roundtable dialogue between Yang Rui of Titanium Media and Ambassador Zhou Wen, Ambassador Hua Liming and Ambassador Su Ge:</h2>
Yang Rui: Recently, Beijing has become the outbreak site of the second wave of the new crown epidemic, and the repeated outbreaks have led to the central government's proposal to prevent internal defense and rebound and external defense against imports, on the other hand, looking at the world, the international situation is full of more uncertainties. Today, we invite you to the T-EDGE X Ambassador Roundtable Forum, an annual science and technology month event of Titanium Media, combined with the dual uncertainties and risks facing our country and abroad, combined with their decades of diplomatic experience and wisdom, and invited the ambassadors to express their views on globalization and China's sustainable development. Let me introduce the three guests who participated in our T-EDGE X Ambassador Roundtable Forum.
First of all, it is a great honor for me to introduce Mr. Zhou Wenzhong, former Chinese Ambassador to the United States, former Ambassador to Australia, former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, and former Secretary-General of the Boao Forum for Asia. There should be applause here, but no applause can be heard online!
Next is the grand introduction of Mr. Suge, former Chinese ambassador to Suriname and former ambassador to Iceland, who is also a very important think tank in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the president of the China Institute of International Studies, and he is currently the chairman of the China Committee on Pacific Economic Cooperation.
The third person I would like to present is the former Chinese ambassador to Iran, the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands, as well as Ambassador Hua Liming, who is also an observer in the international chemical weapons negotiations.
They have all witnessed China's diplomatic storm for decades, have rich diplomatic wisdom, and have profound insights into international issues and global hot topics.
<h2>1. Is the epidemic "critical" or "opportunistic"</h2>
Yang Rui: First of all, I would like to ask Zhou Wenwei to briefly talk about the international situation facing China in 2020 and the most important challenges to our sustainable development. Are the challenges greater than the opportunities, or are the opportunities far greater than the challenges? Do you want to give us a brief presentation from the perspective of an international observer?
Zhou Wenzhong: Of course, the situation will continue to change, but for developing countries, there are always more opportunities than challenges, and no matter how big the challenges are, we can always have a way to resolve and overcome them. So the opportunities outweigh the challenges, and that's probably the way it has always been for us, for developing countries.
Yang Rui: Opportunities are greater than challenges, and there are opportunities in crises, that is, the wisdom of Chinese, what about Ambassador Su?
Suge: I fully agree with Ambassador Zhou's high-profile analysis. We have been observing the changes and invariances of the international situation, and we must see its variables and quantifications. This year to see the special nature, this year is no better than in previous years, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, is indeed impacting globalization, impacting the domestic and international environment in which we live.
My basic idea is that the epidemic will definitely have a major negative impact on the situation we face in the future of globalization, but at the same time, the pace of globalization is an important rule for the progress of human society, and it will not be completely changed because of an epidemic. In the midst of change and change, in the midst of crisis, we must seek to seize the opportunity and seek our own opportunity.
Yang Rui: I would like to ask Ambassador Hua Liming to talk about your analysis, what are your views on the uncertainties that fill our internal and external environment in 2020?
Hua Liming: 2020 is indeed a very difficult year for us, especially the sudden epidemic, such a serious epidemic, at the beginning of the wuhan city with a population of more than 10 million people, the development of the current half a year later, the world has encountered the epidemic. The epidemic has not only infected many people and led to the death of many people, but also led to the stagnation of the global economy, coupled with the trend of anti-globalization in the world in recent years, which has indeed brought us many difficulties.
But I think that in history, far from it, in the past 40 years or so, we have also encountered many difficulties. The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the flood in 1998, and international difficulties are also many. But these difficulties, for China, we have not only overcome the difficulties, but also gained opportunities from them.
To give a simple example, the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 was a big disaster, just a few months before the Beijing Olympics, but within 72 hours, 640,000 troops entered Wenchuan, mobilized the whole people to rescue the disaster, and the whole world was in awe of China. The pandemic has brought us to these difficulties of anti-globalization, and the situation is similar. Historically, when we crossed difficulties, opportunities may come.
<h2>2. China and the United States will not completely "decouple."</h2>
Yang Rui: Great difficulties rejuvenate the state. The Chinese nation is by no means short of such resilience. Returning to Ambassador Zhou, we all know very well that the international situation has been very unoptimistic recently, and the world's most important pair of bilateral relations is facing a great test, although the first stage of Sino-US trade has reached an agreement, but because this year is the US election year, China has become an object of hanging, the strategic goals of the entire United States have undergone a major shift, and the right wing in the Republican Party is full of hostility to us.
Ambassador Zhou has also experienced many crises during his tenure as ambassador to the United States, and has turned dangers into disasters, can you tell us whether we are in the midst of uncertainty and should also see that we can still have the possibility of stopping losses, have the space for stop losses, and have the ability and wisdom of this management?
Zhou Wenzhong: At such a moment in the development of Sino-US relations, there are many difficulties and challenges, and one of the key changes is that the views and positioning of the US government and opposition on China are changing. Of course, it may also need a process inside it, a process of unifying understanding and unifying views.
In our response, we are frank. We make it clear that we do not challenge anyone, and we do not need, do not prepare, do not ask to replace anyone. In the final analysis, it is the Americans who do not trust us, he sees you as an opponent, he used to see you as a partner, and then slowly changing and adjusting. He sees you as a partner in some ways, you as an opponent in some ways, and now he sees you as an opponent in general.
How do we respond? I think the common interests of both sides still exist, and he can't deny this. Complete decoupling is impossible for me, and many think tanks and scholars in the United States also think it is impossible. Partial decoupling is certainly inevitable, high-tech and other exchanges may be inevitable, and both sides may need to adjust the process, that is, to see how the final interest groups in the United States coordinate the process. This process is still ongoing, so on the one hand, we have a consistent approach and hope to develop a relationship that is beneficial to both sides. The relationship can sustain it, right? No conflict, no confrontation, right? Mutual benefit and win-win, mutual respect.
Of course, the United States now happens to be an election year. This year is an election year, and the political factors in the United States are very obvious. The election situation is still developing, and what kind of changes will occur after the election also needs to be observed. So my idea is that there are many unpredictable things in Sino-US relations, but there are still things that remain unchanged. So, I think how do we make the common interests of both sides clearer, so that he understands not to harm the overall interests of the United States for the sake of partisan interests, or the interests of some people.
In the process of mutual adaptation, the two sides hope that all walks of life in the United States, including the business community and think tanks, can form a consensus that is beneficial to the United States. Because if the two sides continue to be so hostile, or in some respects, it is actually not good for the United States, and I think he himself should understand.
<h2>3. How to avoid the "two traps" of China's peaceful rise</h2>
Yang Rui: I remember that two or three years ago there was a roundtable discussion, Ambassador Su was also on the stage, and he had a sentence that impressed me deeply, he said that there is a middle-income trap in China, a Thucydides trap outside, and two traps. So, do you still think today that our biggest crisis at home comes from the middle-income trap, and externally, china and the United States are inevitably going to confrontation?
With china's current becoming such an important part of the global industrial chain, as well as our huge domestic market, some people say that the middle-income group of five to six hundred million, as well as our big data technology, brings us the development of curve overtaking called "Internet industrialization", etc., do you think all this can effectively delay decoupling, can avoid the Thucydides Trap to the greatest extent, and ensure the peaceful rise of China?
Suge: Thank you to our Mr. Yang Rui, a very good host. We are analyzing the international situation now, and one of the words we often say is that we must grasp the overall situation at home and abroad, and know where we come from and where we are going.
From the perspective of the overall domestic situation, we want to achieve the two centennial goals. What is the current situation of the international landscape? A major change that has not been encountered in a hundred years. What kind of decision we make, there is a basis for judgment. We must understand our historical orientation, which is what we Chinese often talk about as "heaven, time, place, and people."
The West also has a three-tiered approach to international relations: the international level, the domestic level and the decision-making level. If we look at the changes in the international pattern, just now Mr. Yang Rui also talked about the changes in globalization, we are indeed facing a major change that has not been encountered in a hundred years, involving all aspects.
As we all know, the historical process of globalization has gone through several stages: the discovery of navigation, the electrification caused by the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, and the current information age. Globalization is a process of history, and the historical role played by it is to make the means of production and resources optimally allocated, and it is the reallocation of resources, so that greater economic benefits can be produced.
Of course, globalization alone cannot eradicate poverty and solve the problem of inequality between rich and poor. But I mean, the situation we are facing now, we have entered globalization, the natural laws of human society, the laws of economy, cannot be completely changed because of an epidemic. However, what we pay special attention to is that ambassador Zhou just said, there is a general election in the United States. For the sake of the needs of individual selection, policymakers are likely to talk about China, throw the pot, push the responsibility over, and so on.
However, when we talk about economics, one of the basic concepts that we often talk about is that the economic base determines the superstructure, but the superstructure sometimes has a significant impact on the economic base. This concept is particularly appropriate to analyze the current situation. If the economic foundation is from the natural law of the economy, it is of course that people go to the high place, the water flows to the low place, the United States and China are in a production chain value chain, and our original and formed natural international division of labor must be beneficial to both sides.
That is to say, if we follow the laws of the economy, those products produced in China must conform to the laws of nature. If it were not for the laws of nature, GM would not have sold more in China than the United States, nor would it have been made cheaper than the United States. But now it is some US political leaders who are trying their best to use the political Cold War mentality to forcibly change some economic laws.
For example. As Ambassador Zhou just said, some US political leaders should forcibly pull some links of production in China back to the United States, and in the end whether all of them can be pulled back, I really doubt. However, if he is encouraged by the so-called "political correctness" ideology, it is probably inevitable that China and the United States will decouple in some aspects, such as in the field of high technology.
As far as we are concerned, the adjustment of US policy, the major changes in the China policy of the two parties, the government and the opposition, and the national security strategy have set China as the biggest security challenge. In US politics, the government has imposed a comprehensive strategic squeeze and sanctions on China.
At this time, when we handle Sino-US relations, we must keep a sober mind. Of course, in general, it is still necessary to strive to maintain a coordinated and cooperative and stable relationship with the United States. Of course, where Sino-US relations go is not up to our family. But overall, President Xi Jinping stands tall, saying that cooperation is the only right choice in Sino-US relations. Sino-US relations are a matter of two countries, which have a bearing on the peaceful development of the Asia-Pacific region and even on the peaceful development and prosperity of the world.
There is a certain reason for an expert to say that China and the United States together may not be able to solve all the problems in the world, but if these two countries become enemies, it may be difficult to solve the world's major problems.
<h2>4. Has the ballast stone between China and the United States changed? </h2>
Yang Rui: Ambassador Hua, you have many years of experience as an ambassador to the Middle East, talking about the bilateral relationship between China and the United States, energy may also be the first stage of trade, in addition to buying agricultural products, I am afraid to import its fuel oil. Now that oil prices have fallen into the $38-40 range, the Fed has unleashed a lot of quantitative easing to stimulate liquidity and push up stocks.
Now there are two paradoxes, one is that the United States is in a serious recession, mainly caused by the epidemic, which may further throw the pot to China, or it may bring a lot of uncertainty because of the economic downturn, instead, they are more focused on the first phase of the trade deal. Both logics hold. What do you think?
Originally, we said that the most important ballast stone in Sino-US relations -- economic and trade relations -- but now the Us strategy toward China has undergone major adjustments, and there have been some subtle changes in the theory that China and the United States are not enemies or friends. For example, the last time I heard a military representative say that the relationship between the two militaries has become a ballast stone in the bilateral situation, not an economic and trade operation. I can hear that I am in the clouds and fog. I would like to hear Ambassador Hua analyze that if China and the United States maintain a fight and do not break, then should we still look at economic and trade relations?
Hua Liming: When we look back at Sino-US relations, the longer is the Sino-US relations in the more than 70 years since the end of the war, and the current stage of Sino-US relations should not be said to be the worst period.
Yang Rui: Ambassador Zhou, by the way, what do you think is the worst paragraph between China and the United States?
Zhou Wenzhong: In the Korean War, the country met on the battlefield, and that was the worst.
Yang Rui: Hugh, who can't get it on the battlefield, gets it at the negotiating table.
Zhou Wenzhong: For 30 years after the end of the Korean War, the United States blockaded and encircled us, which should be said to be the worst time for Sino-US relations. Now I don't think it's the worst time. Even after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, after the reform and opening up, we all knew at that time in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the United States has always been a problem.
Do you all remember the 1999 U.S. bombing of our embassy in Yugoslavia. The plane collision incident over the South China Sea, and the Galaxy incident, these are all things. Sino-US relations are problematic, conflicting, and contradictory. In addition, there are some aspects that require cooperation between China and the United States, such as the trade relationship just mentioned.
It's just that after Trump took office, he wanted to reverse globalization and get all the industries to the United States, but he couldn't do many things. Moreover, I feel more and more that in the past two years, Trump's policies, including his China policy, have something to do with his votes. He does not have to have to reach the amount of trade, whether the first stage can be achieved, the key is whether he can win more votes, whether he can get a majority of votes in this November's general election. So, this is a big problem for the United States.
So, in general, Sino-US relations, the two largest economies in the world, I think it is impossible to fight, this is an unthinkable thing, mainly to see the extent of the hostility. Some people compare the current atmosphere toward China in the United States to the McCarthy era of the fifties of the last century, and I don't quite believe it. However, it should be said now that the current domestic atmosphere in the United States does have a lot of unfriendliness to China. But we've both integrated too much into each other, and it's already difficult to decouple. I still have an optimistic attitude toward the prospects of Sino-US relations.
Yang Rui: It's rational optimism.
Zhou Wenzhong: Many things are not to say that one or two people, or one or two groups, can decide. It has the law of historical development, when China developed into a huge economy, a market of 1.4 billion people, such a large economy as the United States, can it abandon this place? I think whoever is president has to think about that.
Yang Rui: Back to Ambassador Zhou, the United States has drifted away from huawei and 5G, repeatedly accusing China of cyber espionage or industrial espionage, and using 5G as a target. What do you think, in the US relations with China, is it from economic and trade to technology, from technology to finance?
Just now I have a little misgiving about Ambassador Hua's analysis. Ambassador Hua said that we have all experienced the worst times, such as the bombing of the museum. But at that time, after all, the relations between the two sides were relatively normal, and normal official contacts were maintained, and the policy of engagement with China is probably difficult to accurately describe by decoupling today. Do you think that the United States is more wary of China in the field of high technology and in terms of digitalization?
Zhou Wenzhong: On May 20, the White House released a U.S. strategic approach to the People's Republic of China. This strategic approach was submitted to Congress by the White House as required by the FY2019 Defense Authorization Act. The strategy of this policy clearly negates the China policy pursued by successive US governments and more concretely depicts the line of competition with China. The meaning of ideological opposition to this policy is even stronger, so the new competitive strategy of the United States toward China has taken another step forward.
Judging from the current situation, he has said that it is necessary to decouple, but from the perspective of its actual interests, it is impossible to completely decouple, so it wants to decouple from you in some ways, which is a reality we face.
The question you just asked is actually related to this. Huawei's 5G technology, the American saw China in his hands, first to get it up, of course he has ideas in his heart. So, he made an excuse to kick you away. However, on the other hand, he left 5G, and in many ways could not move forward. Therefore, for some things about Huawei's 5G, the US Department of Commerce has relaxed again.
That's two things. On the one hand, fundamentally, he sees you as an opponent. In official documents, opponents or competitors are used interchangeably to portray you as an opponent. So, specifically, it is decoupled in some aspects, such as saying that some majors in colleges and universities are now not open to Chinese students. These things will be more and more, and there will be more and more restrictions on you.
On the other hand, it is considering which markets, how much, and to what extent your high-tech products can enter it. Therefore, there may also be mutual interests and mutual needs internally, so let's balance it. Different interest groups may have different ideas. In the process, I think we still have to observe calmly for a while.
<h2>5, avoid talking about politics, American businessmen are no longer pragmatic? </h2>
Yang Rui: Ambassador Su, in the past... I'm sorry, I always want to go back to the past, this is not a simple recall of the fate of Sino-US relations, but to say, originally, we said that economy and trade is the ballast stone of Sino-US relations. The US business community and Wall Street will become a more realistic and pragmatic lobbying group for China.
However, today I don't know what Ambassador Su thinks, why has the entire American business community become silent? Although we have also seen Elon Musk build a factory in Shanghai, although we have also seen a large number of American companies in China, but they have left to hedge, this trend is also more obvious.
What does Ambassador Su think? Isn't America's business community no longer as pragmatic as it once was? Or are they determined to cooperate well, even if the Democratic Party comes to power, fading out of China's market has become the trend of the times. Because U.S.-China is the most important bilateral relationship, we were once the fastest-growing export market for the United States. China's economy accounts for more than 60 percent of the U.S., and if we press PPP, we already have more average purchasing power than the U.S. But that doesn't matter anymore. Because our per capita GDP is still far behind that of the United States.
What everyone is most concerned about is whether there will be a big debate in the United States like in 1949, who lost China? Is it possible for the United States to lose China again today?
Suger: It's a very good question, very profound. The United States is now facing a general election at home, and the people in power have a special personality, and a veteran ambassador in China, when he was recently interviewed, talked about the united states, which was of course not such a political environment and political climate, and sometimes people were not allowed to come out.
Yang Rui: In a word, they all pay attention to political correctness.
Suge: I just noticed that although there are not many people in the American business community who stand in the foreground and say that Sino-US relations are so important, how friendship Sino-US relations are for our company, etc., the United States still has a big market, operation and operation in China. These companies often do not rush to the forefront, name and criticize and attack US relations, nor do they mean that Sino-US relations must be what they are.
So, at the moment the United States is studying politics, and American politics has another word, called the silent majority of the last majority. Often what you see is that many people are silent, and in this case, I am particularly in favor of the earlier analysis of Ambassador Zhou and Ambassador Hua just now, that there must be many factors in Sino-US relations that have contributed to the integration of the two economies of China and the United States. There is also a desire for friendly exchanges between the two peoples, students, business and so on.
So, from another point of view, from the development of the entire pattern of international relations, China has developed to this point, and the possibility of any external force subverting our regime and our country is getting smaller and smaller. Then, the most crucial issue is that we ourselves prevent the evil from falling into trouble, and we must do our own things well. You just mentioned from the beginning that after we have now passed the epidemic ourselves, I will pay close attention to six stability and six guarantees, and we must have bottom-line thinking ourselves.
From the perspective of the international economy, if we look at our investment, consumption and exports now, they are generally considered to be the troika of China's economic development. This troika is not only an opportunity for China, but also an opportunity for China and abroad.
For example, when we launch new infrastructure, the big new infrastructure projects are certainly not like the huge system engineering of the Internet that was just infrastructure in the past, including 5G and engineering cloud computing. The procurement here is not necessarily all Chinese products, such as chips for the Internet, many of which are imported from abroad. To take this example, this is a big opportunity facing Both China and foreign countries.
In addition, the second carriage: consumption. Are all chinese goods we consume? We're not talking about buying American goods like Trump. We all buy.
To promote production, it is said that the "export" of the troika is heard. I now have a feeling that we have very good conditions now, and the epidemic is the first time we get it under control. Now it is also the first to resume work and production. But in the process of this launch, I deeply felt an old saying, "The world is hot and cold." After the epidemic is better, the economic situation has improved and production has been produced, but you have to face whether you can get enough orders from other places, from all over the world.
Therefore, you must also eliminate the impact of the epidemic on consumer psychology and so on, and meet the expectations of the market. Efforts should also be made to solve the problem of insufficient international orders. From one side, the community of human destiny that is now being promoted is indeed the right direction. Because this world is the global village, one prosperity and one loss, it cannot be That China is a unique flower, and we will develop our own production. We have to get orders from all sides, which is not an easy task, and we have to continue to work hard.
Yang Rui: On China-US relations, the three ambassadors have put forward very profound views. I want to go back to Ambassador China, and I remember that after the Eighteenth National Congress, President Xi Jinping quickly attended a working meeting on our good-neighborly and friendly diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, which was a very important signal. We pay special attention to bilateral relations, good-neighbourly relations, strategic reciprocity, etc.
Recently, there was an unpleasant incident between us and India, and the Indian side suffered many casualties. But soon I found that on a diplomatic level, calm was restored. It reminds me of the Meeting between President Xi and Prime Minister Modi in Wuhan after the Doklam incident, and the SCO summit in Qingdao, where leaders on both sides called for not to be fooled by U.S. strategy. Sino-Indian relations are very important, and Sino-Indian relations are only a very important and appropriate example of our good-neighborly and friendly relations.
I would like to hear Ambassador Hua talk about how important it is for China's new diplomatic situation in the new era, whether it is emerging markets or the European Union, from the perspective of the backbone. Because there is a voice that says That China and the United States may return to the Cold War. In addition to an important premise, like the United States during the Cold War it not only had the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but also treated another military bloc represented by the Soviet Union as a whole.
In fact, today's EU policy toward China is still very practical and realistic. We have very good relations with the Mediterranean, southern European countries, Greece, Italy, such as the BRI memorandum signed with Italy, our Shanghai Construction Expo, the Greek prime minister also came, President Xi jinping visited Greece.
We also have the "16+1" cooperation mechanism with Middle Eastern countries, which is also an important part of the BRI. On the table, is it really to give us a beautiful picture, whether it is the European Union, India, emerging markets, it is a swing state, forming a hedge between China and the United States, a hedge force that is very conducive to the stability of this global situation?
Hua Liming: The international environment that China once faced was not good. During the Cold War we were blockaded and surrounded, and our seat in the United Nations was not restored until 1971. NATO can manipulate voting information, and the United States can manipulate voting information to prevent the proposal from passing Through China's position in the world. Indeed, the Cold War years were much worse than they are now.
After 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, and after that, China's overall international status has been different. One is basically economic strength, and to say it is not good to say that it is rich and powerful. Of course, we are not using the economy to make a big stick. But the economy is the foundation, and with this foundation can we have friendly relations with all countries. Relations with many countries are due to close economic ties, and this line is difficult to break. It can also be difficult to say that it is not good to think about.
Another is that China's national image is also developing. If the Cold War era was seen by us as a communist country that wanted to expand outward, the image is no longer like this, and China is seeking development and cooperation. We also need to pay attention to our diplomacy, we also need more diplomacy, we need more friends in the world, the fewer enemies the better, the more friends the better. In this way, our friends can have a sense of closeness to China.
I remember an American friend who gave us advice, do you have any suggestions for China's diplomacy? An American friend made a suggestion and said two words, modesty. Be humble and don't try to lead others and other countries in everything. I think this is a point that we should pay special attention to in the new period.
In other respects, when dealing with neighboring countries and with countries around the world, we really want to let people get tangible benefits from their relations with China, so that they cannot leave China. The same is true of relations with Europe, as are countries like Canada and Australia.
Now, as history moves into the 21st century, it will be increasingly difficult for the United States to mobilize NATO countries or countries with the same values as the American social system to oppose China to do something, as it did fifty years ago. It is only to say that our diplomacy must be done well. We need to be more and more low-key internationally. Also, the fundamental thing is to do things well at home.
Just now Ambassador Su said very correctly, the development of the domestic economy, after the reform and opening up, in order to promote economic development first rely on exports, and then, after the economic crisis in 2008, we used trillions of investment to promote our economy, the third is to develop the domestic market. Now I am afraid that China has reached this point. China's economic development is very fast, but we must not forget that there are still hundreds of millions of people in China, not to mention living in poverty, as I saw a few days ago, there are still 100 million people in China, there is no flush toilet.
This is a sign. In 1940, more than 60 percent of households in the United States, including remote rural areas, had flush toilets, bathtubs, kitchens, and ordinary appliances. If china still has so many people whose monthly income is still 1,000 yuan, we cannot say that it is a very rich country.
And this real power of ours, our real market is at home. Can drive domestic consumption, to imagine that hundreds of millions of us have to build a house, to build a standard house, our market will become bigger, rather than the eyes always stare at the export to drive the economy, rely on investment to drive economic growth, this era has passed. I think we must first do things well at home, and we should make more friends abroad, which is my idea.
<h2>6. How to prevent financial risks</h2>
Yang Rui: Ambassador Zhou, I remember that after the 18th National Congress, President Xi Jinping repeatedly stressed that we need a new concept of security, and soon after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Party Central Committee made a deployment to raise the medical side of public health with a major epidemic to the height of national security, which reminds me of several important concepts: there is energy security, there is financial security, of course, there is military security, and there is also high-tech security.
Now, we ostensibly look at the books to see that there are three trillion foreign reserves, some time ago there was a voice that the United States may have to rely on the account, because the accusation that China is hiding the epidemic, the early epidemic has such a noise, which inevitably reminds people of our central government's recent mention of blockchain, bitcoin, digital currency.
I remember that Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the central bank, said that a package of special drawing rights based on the International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund) should be advocated to exceed the amount of money above the sovereign currency. In this way, we can get rid of the financial hegemony that depends on the United States, and in terms of defending national security, how do you think about the financial risks, which is also one of the six stability. What must be above this bottom-line thinking is financial security, which is also highly valued by the central government.
You think that today, although the us dollar is out of the gold standard in the seventies, we can rely on the agreement reached by the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and the overseas cooperation organization OPEC, and still use the dollar to settle most of the energy commodities, and military and political bullying still maintains its own financial dominance.
Do you think that for China, in the field of safeguarding national security, we need to take more measures to defuse our dependence on the US dollar? There is no doubt about the dominant currency of the US dollar, and its main reserve currency, but how do we mitigate this risk?
Zhou Wenzhong: Everyone in the Lujiazui Financial Forum has also paid attention to it, so I will quote some of its main views here. First of all, we have greater downward pressure on the economy on the prospects, our expectations, and the work that needs to be done. Vice Premier Liu He also made a special written speech, proposing the idea of double circulation. His main view is that the downward pressure on the economy is relatively large, but the situation is changing in a good direction.
Second, risk response should be ahead of the market curve;
Third, build a system, non-intervention, zero tolerance, and strengthen the development of the capital market;
Fourth, we do not engage in deficit monetization and negative interest rates, we cherish the conventional state of monetary and fiscal policy, do not engage in flood irrigation, and will not engage in deficit monetization and negative interest rates;
Fifth, strengthen the role of policy-oriented finance, credit increased by one trillion yuan more than last year;
Sixth, increase funds for insurance and increase investment in medium- and long-term bonds of enterprises;
Seventh, financial support policies to deal with the epidemic, although there are stages to consider exiting in advance;
Eighth, the central bank's RRR cuts and increased refinancing are both expansionary monetary policies;
Ninth, the annual new credit is expected to be 20 trillion yuan;
Tenth, the characteristics of cross-market, cross-industry and cross-field cross-infection of financial risks are becoming increasingly prominent;
Eleventh, in the post-epidemic period, global liquidity is abundant, and even flooding is a high probability event;
Twelfth, study innovative systems such as allowing the transfer of old shares in IPOs.
The main remarks of the Lujiazui Financial Forum represent all aspects of the financial community, and these issues are certainly being considered. Therefore, we must see the seriousness of the situation. One is how to do a good job in the double cycle, the internal cycle and the external cycle of international exchanges and cooperation, the internal cycle and the outer cycle are interdependent, I think Vice Premier Liu He's written speech is very important.
How to deal with the next stage of finance? The current situation suggests a direction. There is no doubt that the RMB will go out internationally. Our current trade with many countries is settled in renminbi, so it is also expected to reduce the use of dollars. But this is a process, because the status of the us dollar as an international currency is also a gradual process of change. I think we all have to take care of it.
I would like to ask Ambassador Su Ge, when it comes to the internationalization of the renminbi, there is a topic of capital account opening, and now the renminbi cannot be freely convertible with the US dollar, which of course is also to resolve financial risks, at the same time, our national leaders have said on many occasions that we must further open up the capital market, open up financial services, insurance industry, etc. This is all in the process of being implemented in a down-to-earth manner, and we also see that we still have a negative list of trade.
Ambassador Su, do you think that in the process of opening up the capital market, China can really achieve the level of competition, although the WTO is now basically paralyzed, and its arbitration institutions have almost lost their functions because of the serious intervention of the United States. When it comes to the opening up of the capital market, is the time for China?
SuGe: First plot after the law, now we are facing a century of unprecedented changes, national rejuvenation has not reached the goal, the trend we see in the post-epidemic era, we will still unswervingly expand the opening up to the outside world, this door will not be closed after opening, but also will be opened wider and wider, just mentioned the opening up of the financial industry and foreign maintenance cooperation, is an important area for us to open up to the outside world.
Because in the end we have to advance our goals, whether we can finally advance to an agreement according to the final model of the established negotiations does not depend on our family. And it is certain that China will nationalize the treatment before entry, the negative list, etc., and on these issues will create good conditions for foreign investment to develop in China. I think we have also been involved in some economic diplomacy during our work. For example, in addition to what the two ambassadors just talked about, we have special drawing rights in SDR.
In addition, the International Monetary Fund and other international financial institutions, some of our quotas and other related issues. In the process of our development, we find ways to create a bridge for economic and financial cooperation. Some of the countries I used to work in have also developed currency swaps with our central banks. Our renminbi is not widely known as an international currency, and whether the Chinese market economy is a market economy or not has not been widely recognized. We can do a lot of things, such as our partner just now, the construction of the free trade zone, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the road of Sino-foreign cooperation is also getting wider and wider, because Ambassador Hua has been working in the Middle East for a long time, and he has more say here.
On some issues, we and some countries can also adopt special trade arrangements, of course, the United States long-arm jurisdiction, including crude oil exports to Iran, is settled in US dollars. He can manage you through some other means, such as bank codes, and impose unilateral sanctions on you. However, I think it means that in the long run, we will promote economic exchanges between China and foreign countries, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, promote more regional interconnection, and promote the development of our world toward globalization, which will be one of the directions that China's diplomacy has unswervingly adhered to.
<h2>7. What globalization risks do we still face</h2>?
Yang Rui: We are going to end the roundtable discussion, the first ambassadors' roundtable forum. I would like to use the rest of the time to ask each of us to use a few words to sum up whether we are today in the context of anti-globalization or in the pattern of globalization, redeploying our diplomacy to serve the economic construction at home. The so-called anti-globalization must refer to the rise of trade protectionism, unilateralism, populism, or the non-liberalism of the post-Western era that was reinforced by the participants at the last Munich Security Conference, and is undermining an economic order with post-war liberal overtones.
How do we respond to this process? China is a beneficiary of globalization, and after joining the WTO in 2001, China was able to quickly enjoy the dividends of globalization, and in the future, China will mainly rely on domestic consumption. Huge middle-class consumer group, but what risks do we face from globalization or anti-globalization in terms of foreign trade? First of all, there is ambassador Hua Liming.
Hua Liming: I think globalization is an unstoppable or irreversible trend. Because the economic development of human society has now required the wide circulation of commodities, capital, technology, and labor on a global scale, and it is true that the world economy has developed in globalization.
In particular, we see that we all think that it is as if China has benefited from globalization, but in fact the biggest beneficiary is the United States. From 40 years to the present, the total economic volume of the United States has doubled, relying on what? By globalization. Therefore, there are still people in the United States who want to propose anti-globalization, but in fact, this is not good for the United States. Globalization requires relatively friendly and excellent allocation, productivity, labor, capital, technology, then in this case, I think the trend is unstoppable.
But it is true that globalization has caused many problems for humanity. The biggest problem is the gap between rich and poor. One is that the gap between the North and the South has widened, the developed industrial countries have received more and more dividends, and the developing countries, especially those excluded from globalization, are getting poorer and poorer. Moreover, in every country, including developed countries such as the United States, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.
When the United States occupied Wall Street a few years ago, 1% to 99% of the United States accounted for so much money, how can there be such a phenomenon? It is precisely because globalization has caused the gap between the rich and the poor. So many dividends have gone to multinational companies and Wall Street. The ordinary middle class, the ordinary working class, did not benefit from it. That's why we can see the 2016 saying that people like Trump can be elected president of the United States.
So, we see that the tides of nationalism, populism, anti-globalization, and anti-immigrant trends, are popular not only in the United States, but in Europe, all over the world, and have something to do with globalization. I think that after this round of globalization and anti-globalization struggle, human society must find a way, we continue to globalize, continue to circulate widely in the global scope of goods, capital, and technology. But let this globalization benefit all the people of the world, the poor, the rich, the poor, the rich. So this is a big problem facing our human society.
Yang Rui: Please ask Ambassador Zhou to tell us about your prediction.
Zhou Wenzhong: Globalization is the trend of the times, the United States has also benefited from China, the reason why the United States is now in such a situation, populism, etc., is because of the uneven distribution within the United States. For the problem he wants to find a way to solve is in his country, he is now going to throw the pot and engage in anti-globalization, which will only isolate itself.
For example, in 2018, European Council President Tusk said a word that there are such friends, who also need enemies.
He was referring to Trump, which revealed a strong European dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. Therefore, Europe should be a very important member of the global situation. Like Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, withdrawal from the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear issue, withdrawal from the INF Treaty, naming Europe as a NATO member should increase funding, etc. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented that it is no longer possible to rely on the United States, and Europe must take its fate into its own hands.
So, I think it is to say that some of his self-isolated practices in the United States cannot solve the problems that the globalization he is facing has brought to him. I think we'll wait and see, look at this round of elections in the United States, the debate between the two parties, and what choices will voters of both parties make on this issue? There is no future in de-globalization.
Yang Rui: The 2016 US election is indeed Trump's anti-system, anti-elite, anti-globalization, and entered the White House on the platform of populism. Next, whether the Democratic Party can change the populist thinking of the United States, I would like to ask Ambassador Su to make a final concluding statement.
SuGe: Thank you very much to Yang Rui for inviting us, titanium media, and fully agree with the statements made by Ambassador Zhou and Ambassador Hua. I also fully agree that globalization is the trend of the times. But after the epidemic, we must seriously analyze which are the new variables that have emerged in the pattern of international relations?
I am afraid that globalization will not return to the original situation of a permutation and combination. There will be new combinations under a new pattern, such as production chains and value chains, logistics chains, etc. It will not eventually return to the small peasant economy, its own production, it will certainly be a trend of the chain of production of an international star. However, due to Western political considerations and artificial restrictions, there will be some new rearrangements and combinations.
The general direction is that China has the original intention of promoting a new type of international relations, developing in the direction of a community with a shared future for mankind, promoting globalization, promoting regional connectivity, and promoting trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. This original intention will not change,
For example, in the specific operation of China, I think what Ambassador Zhou said at the beginning is that we have a belief that we still want to try to stabilize Sino-US relations.
In addition, I also think that after the epidemic, in the process of resuming production, we have also seen some new trends in Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. For example, will the friendly and cooperative economic development of China, Japan, and the ROK come out of a relatively large wave of China and ASEAN? Because now between China and ASEAN, these three countries in China, Japan and South Korea together account for one-fifth of the world's total economy. China-ASEAN trade is also an amount of $600 billion, just like the previous $60 million in China and the United States, China and Europe.
So, I would like to talk about the China-EU relationship. As mentioned earlier, we can also carry out all-round promotion in this regard. In addition, our big data, future-oriented high-tech, including 5G, Internet, cloud computing, cloud services, we are more and more extensive, people's connection is getting deeper and deeper. Although some people are trying their best to promote anti-globalization, I think that China's reform and opening up, no matter what kind of difficulties and obstacles there are on the way forward, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Diplomatic Thought, it will certainly brave the wind and rain and forge ahead.
Yang Rui: Do not forget the original heart, keep in mind the mission, today our titanium media T-EDGE X science and technology month of the first ambassador roundtable forum is quite wonderful, the height, thickness, breadth of the three ambassadors, and even the sharpness at a certain point, have left a deep impression on our T-EDGE X audience.
We share wisdom and your confidence in the future, and of course we feel that the three masters are cautiously optimistic. We have a sense of distress, but we do not forget our original intentions. The Chinese nation, the Chinese people, and China's entrepreneurial spirit cannot be underestimated. We also believe that China will certainly be further globalized.
Thank you to the three ambassadors. I think today' Ambassadors' Roundtable forum is just the beginning, and we look forward to more. The large roundtable forum represented by you to further share your diplomatic ideas, diplomatic wisdom, and the construction of China's soft power is, as Ambassador Hua said, to have more and more friends, more and more partners, fewer and fewer opponents, fewer and fewer enemies, and even no enemies. Only in this way can the cost of China's peaceful rise be greatly reduced, and the cost of China's modernization be greatly reduced.
Thank you all for your participation, we will see you next time, thank you!
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