Just entered November, the domestic bean oil edible oil market out of a wave of big ups and downs of the market, a wave of uneven and rising, due to the November 1 Ministry of Commerce to encourage families to reserve a certain amount of daily necessities, many local terminal markets appear consumer rush to buy, many supermarkets reflect rice flour grain and oil short selling, November 3 even soybean oil y2201 contract up to touch 10112 points, and this wave of consumer enthusiasm has not receded, November 5 morning y2201 minimum has reached 9502 points, two days, Soybean oil futures price amplitude of 610 yuan / ton, the rapid decline in futures prices and suppress the manufacturer's bulk oil spot prices, many dealers just feel that the goods are slightly better, they are caught off guard by the futures price diving.
Taking soybean oil as an example and combined with the reference of the spot market, as of noon on November 4, the average spot quotation of the first-class soybean oil of the main domestic coastal manufacturers was about 10572 yuan / ton, about 10460 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10530 / ton in Tianjin, about 10560 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 10600 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, and about 10550 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang. China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here to talk about the recent sudden decline in pulse oil and fat factors and future market concerns.
The decline was mainly due to lower crude oil prices
On November 3 and 4, the price of US crude oil fell for two consecutive days and was larger. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on the 10th showed that as of the week of October 29, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week, higher than analysts expected. At the same time, the OPEC alliance is under increasing pressure to increase its production. The US president said at the COP26 global climate summit in the United Kingdom that the soaring oil and gas prices were blamed on the OPEC country's refusal to further increase crude oil production. On November 3, the FUTURES PRICE of U.S. crude oil on the CmE Stock Exchange closed at $80.11 per barrel, down 4.53%.
On November 4, crude oil prices fell again, with the FUTURES price of U.S. crude oil on the Chicago Stock Exchange closing at $79.33 per barrel, down 1.89%. On the same day, the OPEC Alliance met to decide to maintain the previous production increase plan, and slightly increase crude oil production by 400,000 bpd in December. The news boosted oil prices. But then Saudi state television reported that Saudi crude oil production will increase significantly, causing oil prices to turn around and break down.
Crude oil prices have fallen sharply, which is profitable for related commodities such as bean oils and fats at the raw wood level, and also negative raw material costs in terms of sea freight. Moreover, although the United States requires OPEC+ crude oil to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day, Opec+ only plans to increase by half of the expected increase, but the United States warned that it is ready to use "all necessary tools" to reduce fuel prices, that is to say, the United States has the possibility of releasing its own reserve inventory, which brings negative expectations to crude oil prices, and the capital market is more vigilant. Consecutive oil commodity futures were forced to fall in tandem with crude oil prices.
Emotional hype on all kinds of news surfaces
On November 1, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to encourage families to store a certain number of necessities according to their needs, after various media and platform publicity, and then superimposed on some people's excessive interpretation, resulting in a certain panic consumer sentiment in the terminal market, many supermarkets rice flour grain and oil were snapped up by consumers, and the oil dealers who contacted the terminal reflected that this week's goods were better. However, docking the upstream oil mills of large and medium-sized edible oil dealers, the situation is different, product quotations follow the futures intraday fluctuations, the corresponding customer group mentality is relatively cautious, and the northern power rationing oil plants have resumed to start, but the early stage of the unexecuted contract still needs to be queued up to be mentioned, and the U.S. beans into the harvest period, November is expected to arrive about 8 million tons of soybeans, soybean oil supply is tight or will ease, basis has a downward trend. Therefore, the purchase and sale of soybean oil dealers in the middle and upper reaches is relatively smooth, the state of goods is general, and there is no rush to buy market of downstream end consumers.
On November 3, the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau said that China's autumn grain harvest is nearing the end, the annual harvest has become a foregone conclusion, the output will remain above 1.3 trillion catties for 7 consecutive years, the current total inventory is sufficient, at a historical high, and the supply of the domestic grain market is completely guaranteed. This has alleviated the previous over-interpretation of market concerns, the phenomenon of terminal rush has subsided, and it has also indirectly inhibited the price of oil and fat commodities.
In addition, there are actually rumors that this week's oil and fat fell and dumped, but the author has not received confirmed the news as of press time. Because the futures price of oil and fat has been at a high level of 10 years, the policy news of dumping has always been a big stone hanging on the heart of the bulls, and the bulls are extremely sensitive and careful about this, and as soon as there is an anecdotal rumor, it is also a situation where there are multiple arbitrage and risk avoidance.
In summary, the sudden decline in this wave of pulse oils and fats in recent days is mainly due to the drag of the dive in crude oil prices, the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, and OPEC+ plans to increase crude oil production by 400,000 barrels / day in December, although lower than the 800,000 barrels / day required by the United States, but the United States said that it may release its own inventory and also bring negative expectations to crude oil, and the lower price of crude oil directly suppressed the price of beans-related oils and fats at the raw wood level. At the same time, at the beginning of the domestic month, families were encouraged to reserve daily necessities, which was over-interpreted by the market to cause panic, and the end consumers were now rushing to buy, and after the official publicity that China's grain supply was guaranteed, the consumption sentiment was alleviated.
From the disk point of view, the y2201 contract above the gap at 10120 points, the gap below at 9398 points, if November 4 can step on the 20-day moving average, the author still looks at the next few days upward out of the Yang line, but in two trading days in two consecutive trading days fell below the 5/10/20/30 day moving average, the short-term trend is not good, and the weekly level is still in the ascending channel, the author temporarily maintains the 9450-10100 point box view, considering that the grease has been at a high level of nearly 10 years, the domestic epidemic is a bit like a sign of outbreak, In the later period, the increase in soybean arrivals puts pressure on the basis, the author maintains a cautious thinking, only refer to the 9400/9500/9600 points of low batch just need, the middle and lower reaches of the volume of smaller stocking cycle of dealers need to be cautious to participate. If the support of the 9350 point stage below the late stage breaks through the level, be vigilant. Pay attention to domestic epidemic prevention, grain and oil reserves, power rationing and other policy news, and pay attention to high-frequency data of Horse Palm, the export and loading progress of U.S. new beans, and crude oil news.
The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions.
(China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)
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