Beijing, 23 Jan (Xinhua) -- Four months after the end of the parliamentary elections, the general direction of the new German government in forming a cabinet has finally been determined: Following the preliminary negotiation framework agreement with the CDU/CSU (Alliance Party) led by Prime Minister Angela Merkel on the 12th, the Social Democratic Party Congress voted on the 21st to agree to the SPD's formal negotiations with the Coalition Party.
Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Research Center at Tongji University, said that whether another "grand alliance" can succeed is not based on what kind of compromises are made by the parties to the joint cabinet, but how to work together to keep the German economy and society running well and benefit the people widely.
【Compromise "fine-tuning" and "refinement"】
Zheng Chunrong told Xinhua that the agreement documents reached by the Alliance Party and the SPD in previous tentative negotiations are the product of compromise, and as to which side compromises more and which side benefits more, the parties involved in the negotiations will interpret it as "taking what they need".
The agreement document, which lists the "revitalization of the European Union" as a top achievement, is the main demand of the SPD, and Merkel's CDU/CSU is happy to see it happen. According to Zheng Chunrong's judgment, Merkel hopes to strengthen German-French cooperation and promote EU reform, but it is different from the path advocated by the SPD. When it comes to social security and labor market policies, many of the SPD's demands have been largely met. At the same time, the SPD has failed to lift the restrictions on the number of refugees and their families who can move with them, and has failed to raise the top tax rate for the wealthy.
In the preliminary agreement documents, some of them are already quite specific, others are principled expressions, and the formal cabinet negotiations will be discussed in detail. The allocation of cabinet posts between the two sides will also be a major part of the negotiations. The SPD wants to retain the post of foreign minister and seeks to consolidate more EU affairs into the foreign ministry.
In addition, the SPD wants to "renegotiate" some of the contents that have been agreed upon, such as the relocation of refugee families and the implementation of universal health insurance, but the CDU/CSU will not agree to tear it down and start over, and may make some "fine-tuning" on the basis of not violating the original compromise to calm the opposition to the "grand alliance" within the SPD. In fact, most opponents boycott the "grand alliance" format itself, and the specifics of the negotiations are relatively minor.
【The future test is even worse】
The SPD said the final plan would need to be released by a "referendum" of 443,000 SPD members across the country. Will there be any accidents in this procedure?
Zheng Chunrong said that the final voting result of the SPD party congress was "very hanging", and only 56% of the negotiators supported the formation of the cabinet, which was a weak majority, exposing the crisis of trust in the leadership within the SPD. The subsequent all-party referendum is another hurdle for the leadership. However, a "referendum" is unlikely, because the SPD has already ridden the tiger, and the decision to overthrow the party leadership in the final stage is undoubtedly very unfavorable to the image of the SPD, and most ordinary party members will not be as "rebellious" as the representatives of the "youth league" in the party.
More worryingly, the ongoing debate within the SPD will destabilize the leadership, which in turn will make the "Grand Alliance" government unstable. The vote at the party congress has already shown a rift within the SPD. If, in coalition with the Coalition Party, the SPD's popular support rate does not improve, but rather falls, there may be constant calls for the leadership to step down and end the grand alliance early.
【People's "sense of security" becomes the key】
In last September's federal parliamentary elections, established traditional parties such as the CDU and the Speddrine party lost a lot of points, and the right-wing populist AfD, which was founded less than five years ago, became the biggest beneficiary: it entered parliament for the first time with 94 seats and ranked as the third largest party. The coalition with the SPD again means that AfD will become the largest opposition party, with more say in parliament, more opportunities to attack the government and greater media exposure.
However, the mainstream political parties also have the opportunity to argue and refute the attacks of the opposition parties, which is conducive to exposing the "original form" of the other side that only protests criticism and has no practical alternative.
Zheng Chunrong said that for the next "grand alliance" government, the more critical task is to "maintain Germany's good economic development trend in the external environment of increased global uncertainty, so that the German people, especially the relatively backward development of the voters in eastern Germany, more secure."
"The Coalition Party and the SPD also need to think about how to form a stable government without losing the characteristics of their own position and maintaining the degree of differentiation between parties in order to stabilize popular expectations."