Author 丨 Zeng Le
Editor 丨 Yang Yaru
"It's too hard to build a car." He Xiaopeng said that as the helmsman of Xiaopeng Automobile, who has run to the head camp of the new car company, he still does not dare to relax in the slightest. The pressure is overwhelming. In an interview, he said: "I used to not drink alcohol, and now I drink it a lot. ”
Also "under pressure" is Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, who is known as the "most miserable in 2019". In the past, the young talents of the Internet circle were visibly haggard in the days of building cars. At the press conference of the mid-year joint venture company GAC Weilai, Li Bin attended the supporting field, and there was a circle of blisters on the side of his mouth.
"Before 2019, it was easier to get money, and it was inevitable that there would be some bubbles, and few people at that time looked very seriously at the feasibility of the business plan." Recalling the new car-making boom, an executive of the new car-making force was quite emotional.
If 2014 is the year marked by the beginning of China's Internet car-making movement, then 2019 is the year when the new car-making forces can continue to move to the next stage and decide life and death.
In recent years, electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing have made the automotive industry feel like a spring breeze, and the global auto market is experiencing a huge change. At the same time, a group of "courageous and strategic" Internet people held high the banner of "cross-border overtaking" and stepped into the ranks of car manufacturing.
In 2019, weilai, the "bellwether" enterprise in the new car industry, has paid a lot of attention in the industry. Negative news such as huge losses, difficult financing, company layoffs, continuous decline in stock prices, and Q3 financial reports such as "difficult production" will push Weilai to the "cusp of the storm", and founder Li Bin has been judged to be the "worst person in 2019".
As a bellwether, WEILAI is just a microcosm of China's new car companies. Looking at the entire industry, throughout this year, the new car-making forces are in deep trouble, and history is announcing that the entire industry has ushered in an important moment. Nowadays, "internal and external troubles" such as delayed delivery, difficult financing, burning money, products being questioned, and subsidies declining are full of industry, and new car companies must pass an industry test, and no one can stay out of the matter.
At the same time, the development of new cars is also embracing changes. Under the challenges, the new car manufacturers have not stopped the pace of product updates and iterations. While new car manufacturers are laying out other fields and trying to warm up the group, new variables have quietly emerged in the industry.
Obviously, when the Internet forces knock on the door of "building cars" like cavalry, just like in a siege, it is difficult to withdraw from the siege of the city for a long time, and only in a backwater battle can we draw salaries from the bottom of the pot.
(Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of WEILAI / Yiou.com)
<h3>01 Echelon differentiation intensified: mass production delivery saw the real trick</h3>
After a year of industry "reshuffle", under the big waves, this big test is nearing the end, and the geometry of the new forces of car manufacturing has surfaced.
In the development track of each echelon, the head of the new car companies Weilai, Weima, Xiaopeng, etc. have gone to small-scale mass production delivery; the second echelon players such as Aiways, Ideal, and Byton have followed close behind, queuing up for mass production; and the new car companies in the middle and rear echelons such as Huaren Express are trying to obtain various resources through various channels to accelerate mass production; only the newly built car companies at the end of the track are helplessly lamenting the "embarrassing" dilemma of being kicked out.
Only from the sales performance of the head new car manufacturers this year, the situation is not optimistic due to the impact of the upward trend of the automobile market environment, especially the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles. From January to October this year, WEILAI delivered 14,867 vehicles, Xiaopeng delivered 11,944 vehicles, and WM delivered 14,286 vehicles, all three of which only achieved 37.25%, 25.75% and 14.30% of the sales targets. Compared with the sales volume of the new energy automobile industry, data from the China Automobile Association shows that the sales of pure electric vehicles from January to October this year were 750,000 units, while the total delivery of the three companies was only 41,000 vehicles, accounting for 5.5%.
The head of the new car manufacturer is still like this. Other echelons, such as Min'an Automobile, Hedgehog Automobile and other new car companies, have only announced the general plan, and the news about mass production is "far away". "New car companies in the middle and rear echelon want to 'turn over', unless the product is particularly good and the sales are particularly optimistic, but this is difficult to achieve." Industry insiders told Yiou Automobile.
Not only the sales problem, but also the "first echelon" that seems to have seized the opportunity are also embarrassed. In the first half of this year, following the news of Tesla's spontaneous combustion, Weilai was also exposed to the "spontaneous combustion" incident. In the end, it had to recall 4803 NIO ES8s at a cost of 339 million yuan, so it paid a heavy price.
Xiaopeng Automobile was caught in the storm of collective rights protection of car owners this year. Because the 2020 G3 model has increased the NEDC working range to 400 km and 520 km, but the price increase compared to the old model is not large, this move has aroused the dissatisfaction of the old G3 owners. This made He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, have to apologize: "I'm sorry, let everyone be sad."
(Xiaopeng G3 model / Xiaopeng Automobile official)
The topical "Faraday Future" (abbreviation: FF) has not been able to wait for its founder Jia Yueting to "realize his dream", but ushered in the dreamer's "bankruptcy" moment. "Delivery of the first car by September next year" has become the company's most important goal.
At present, most of the new car companies that have achieved mass production and delivery have been groped. With the arrival of this new time node in 2020, what kind of "delivery answer sheet" will new car manufacturers present?
<h3>02 The "sleepiness" of new cars: such as walking on thin ice and multiple pinches</h3>
In 2019, the new forces of car manufacturing are deeply involved in "internal and external troubles". Under multiple pinches, it is like walking on thin ice.
By combing the financing situation of new car manufacturers this year, Yiou Automobile found that although new car manufacturers such as WM, Ideal, Xiaopeng and Singularity have completed a new round of financing this year, the new car companies have experienced problems such as slowing down the financing speed to varying degrees, delaying the arrival of funds, and the amount of financing less than expected.
Leaving aside the large market environment of the automotive industry, a senior person from an investment institution said, "Not only the automotive industry, the entire capital market is experiencing a major ebb and flow of financing, and the automotive industry is only part of the 'peeping leopard'." At the same time, he added: "The cyclical nature of cars is making investors more rational. ”
Not only have they not raised money, but there are still many places to spend money. "No new car-making force is worth investing in, and it takes 30 billion yuan to burn for 10 years to see the results." Zhang Wei, chairman of Cornerstone Capital, made this remark in the cold winter of the car market, which seemed quite "piercing".
According to media statistics, from its inception to the delivery of the first car, Weilai has spent more than 10 billion yuan. Since its establishment, NIO's total losses have exceeded US$5.7 billion (about 40 billion yuan), and in the first three quarters of this year alone, NIO has lost 8.639 billion yuan, while Tesla's cumulative loss in the past 15 years is only US$5 billion.
Although financing is difficult and money is burning, no one is willing to take the initiative to get out of this "life and death unknown" money burning game, and only by accelerating the layout can we grasp more "right to speak".
In addition to being gradually "abandoned" by the capital market, the "external troubles" of new car manufacturers are also devouring the industry.
Under the trend of global electrification, not only domestic traditional car companies are transforming to electrification, but also foreign traditional car companies such as BBA have accelerated their electrification strategy, and their "electrification" determination may be more determined than that of new car companies. Taking the BMW Group as an example, BMW is currently accelerating the pace of electrification, offering 12 electric vehicles worldwide and expecting the group's electric vehicle sales to double in the next three years. Not only that, BMW originally planned to release 25 electric vehicles in 2025, and raised the completion time to 2023.
(Tesla Model S / Tesla official)
The arrival of the localization of Tesla, the "mentor of new car manufacturers", is directly inserted into the "hinterland" of the Chinese market.
On December 6, the domestic version of Model 3 officially entered the promotion directory of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This means that Tesla already holds a license to sell and deliver the domestic version of the Model 3 to customers. And Tesla's entry into China will surely stir up this pool of spring water in China.
"Tesla's entry into China has produced a 'fish effect', which not only promotes and stimulates the new car market, but also brings new opportunities and challenges to the entire Chinese car company." A senior person from an investment institution said so.
Under the multiple attacks of the external competitive environment, new car manufacturers are also facing the challenge of subsidy decline. With China's new energy vehicle subsidies falling sharply this year until they are canceled, this may directly lead to a five-month decline in sales in the new energy market since July this year.
<h3>03 The "new" of new cars: "survival" new tricks and new variables</h3>
Under the industrial changes, new car manufacturers are not doing nothing, and trying to break through in research and development, procurement, production, sales, service and other links is becoming the main theme.
In terms of product strength that represents the future trend of car companies, although the overall car market continues to be sluggish, new car companies are "secretly adding warehouses". Nearly a year after the first mass-produced model was launched, Xiaopeng Automobile announced that the second mass-produced model P7 officially opened pre-sale; at the 17th Guangzhou International Auto Show, Byton's first mass-produced car M-Byte was officially unveiled; Ideal Automobile recently released news that its first batch of 2020 Ideal ONE has been off the production line and will be shipped and delivered from the Ideal Automobile Changzhou base; Tianji Automobile ME7 will also be mass-produced at the end of December.
At the same time, with the upgrading of consumption in recent years and the gradual formation of the behavior habit of using online ride-hailing by users, the travel field has also been "high hopes" by the capital market. Bain Capital has predicted that the size of China's ride-hailing market will reach $72 billion in 2020, an 11-fold increase compared to 2015. This attractive "cake" in the field of travel has not only made traditional car companies such as SAIC and GAC enter the market, but also newly built car companies have begun to accelerate the transformation into travel service providers.
In June this year, Xinte Automobile released its travel brand "New Electric Travel" and announced its entry into the field of online ride-hailing. In addition, Xiaopeng Automobile became the first company in the new car-making forces to obtain an online ride-hailing operation certificate this year. New car manufacturers choose to enter the field of travel, but also put "eggs" in different baskets, thereby increasing sales channels and reducing certain sales pressure.
A senior person from an investment institution believes that "car companies enter the field of travel in order to grasp the value chain and user contact points." In addition, some insiders analyzed Yiou Automobile and believed that "the new car manufacturers entering the travel field are mainly to alleviate the pressure of sales, but also to expand the valuation, so as to raise more money." ”
As a latecomer, the layout of the travel field of new car manufacturers naturally cannot escape the industry law of difficult profitability and difficult operation.
In addition to entering the field of travel, new car manufacturers are also trying to "warm up in groups". First, WM and State Grid Electric jointly released the charging service package product "Vehicle And Electricity Service Package". Later, Xiaopeng and Weilai "strong alliance" to cooperate on the charging business. Obviously, the "single-handedness" of new car manufacturers has gradually changed into "hugging groups for warmth", and seeking win-win has become the development consensus of many new car companies.
(State Grid Electric joined hands with WM and other car companies to promote charging services / State Grid Electric Official)
<h3>04 Where are new cars headed: the boom has receded and returned to rationality</h3>
After experiencing the highlight moment since 2014, the new forces of Internet car manufacturing have been cutting through thorns and thorns all the way, until now, they have been trapped in the dark moment and cannot extricate themselves. Under the internal and external troubles, new car manufacturers need to find a new way out.
With the decline of the automobile market and the intensification of industry reshuffle, Yiou Automobile predicts that the "Matthew effect" of the new car-making force will become more and more obvious, and capital and the market will gradually move closer to the head enterprises. Under the cruel battle, new car companies without competitive advantages will face more cruel knockouts. In the future, more new car manufacturers will accelerate the transformation to travel service providers, and cost reduction and efficiency increase will also become the only way for new car companies to revitalize funds. In addition, the cooperation between new car manufacturers will increase, and "new car-making forces will be grouped to heat up" or become the mainstream trend of the industry in the next 1-2 years.
From the perspective of investors, a senior person from an investment institution believes that "to judge whether a new car company has investability, we must consider its sustainable development, whether it has the corresponding output capacity, the pressure resistance to important nodes, the reserve of funds and resources, consumer support, team stability and other factors." ”
In the short term, it seems that it is difficult for new car companies to escape the dilemma of "chicken feathers in one place". The above-mentioned senior investor predicted that "the challenges facing the entire auto market at least in the first half of the year are still very large, and there may be signs of reversal after that, it is difficult to say at present, but we still 'Believe in better'." Although the darkest hour has come, the capital market has not completely regarded the new car-making forces as "abandoned children". However, for now, new car companies must first hand over an "answer sheet" on survival.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once said, "No car manufacturer can achieve long-term development without the support of products and markets." "2019 is coming to an end, followed by a new round of "big exams" in 2020. In the period of great changes in the automotive industry, new car manufacturers can only survive in the fierce battle if they continuously enhance their ability to "self-hematopoiesis" and enhance the market competitiveness of products and brands.
After all, car building is not "four wheels plus two sofas", and there is no shortcut for new car companies to tell more new stories.