On June 19, the State Forestry and Grassland Administration and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs publicly solicited opinions on the Directory of Wild Animals under National Key Protection (Draft for Solicitation of Comments) (hereinafter referred to as the Directory). In the List, the yellow-throated turtle (stone turtle) has been removed from the list, which means that if the final list and the draft for comments are consistent, the stone turtle will be completely liberated from the list and become a species that no longer needs to be certified to breed. This is very good news for the stone turtle farmers.
List of Wild Animals under National Key Protection (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)
Then the question that everyone is very concerned about comes: if the final "List" does not include stone money turtles, will it stimulate the stone money turtle market to pick up? Is it very likely that Kameichi will pick up?
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In order to reduce controversy, "warming" is first defined here. The so-called warming, here refers to a relative concept, take the market of the stone money turtle during this time and the market of the future period of time for prejudgment comparison, if in the future period of time, the overall market of the stone money turtle is good, it is called "warming", can also be called optimistic! If the overall market of the stone turtle does not change in the future period of time, it is called a continuous downturn.
Stone money turtle eggs
So can the stone turtle be nominated to remove the "list" this time to produce signs of recovery? To answer this question well, you need to consider it from the following perspectives.
First of all, the first thing to figure out is what factors are the Class A factors that cause the price fluctuations of the stone turtle (i.e., the main factor, the core factor).
Stone money turtle
Up to now, the stone turtle is included in the list of national second-level protected animals, but it is limited to the wild population, while the artificial population can be operated and utilized through legal procedures. At the beginning of the stone turtle being included in the national list of second-level protected animals, the price of the stone turtle was still at a high level, and in the later long period of time, the upward trend was obvious. This phenomenon shows that the stone money turtle is included in the national second-level protected animal (only in the wild population), and does not make the price of the stone money turtle fall, that is, it is included in the list, but also promotes the price increase, because in the subjective consciousness, only the famous turtle is eligible to enter the list, so at this time, the stone money turtle is playing the role of the famous turtle, which is the default of the experts at that time, it is one of the factors that promote the price increase of the stone money turtle (a bit of icing on the cake), but it is not the main factor. That is, it is not the Class A factor that contributes to the price increase of the stone turtle. The real Class A factor is that the breeding of stone turtles is still in the dividend period at that time, under specific conditions, the overall demand of the turtle market is still greater than the supply, so, under the premise that the policy allows the artificial operation and utilization of the stone turtle, plus the dividend period, so its price has been going up! This is in line with the performance of the market economy.
Stone money turtle breeding base
However, after 2015, the overall market of the stone money turtle has gone downhill, the dividend period is gradually news, the bubble is punctured by the market adjustment mechanism, so the price of the stone money turtle has fallen, this process is the process of de-bubble, and it is also the time for the upgrading of the terminal industry in the turtle market, but this is not the focus of our discussion. By this year, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, wild animals have been affected, and in the period when the epidemic is very serious, in order to meet the needs of epidemic prevention and control, all turtle market trading activities have been suspended! Suspension means that the original normal shipping channels are blocked, unable to trade, and some large farms need to spend huge sums of money to manage turtle farms, plus some varieties have seedling output, because the goods can not go out, the expenditure is greater than the income (income is 0), so many farm managers (owners) are facing huge financial pressure, the risk of capital rupture is becoming increasingly severe. This inventory pressure and capital pressure have brought great challenges to the follow-up development of the entire turtle market industry, which means that if the epidemic ends, destocking, and withdrawing funds become the way that large field owners have to take, there will be a large number of turtles circulating to the market, thus forming an oversupply situation in a short period of time, and price reduction is bound to become the normalized theme of the turtle market!
Therefore, from the above two paragraphs, it can be seen that the essence that really affects the direction of the turtle market is the dividend period and the relationship between supply and demand (in the strict sense, the essence of the dividend period is that the supply exceeds demand)!
We have sorted out the Category A factors, so we can discuss the possibility that the stone turtle will be proposed to be excluded from the "list" this year and there is a possibility that the turtle market will recover.
Consider three aspects:
First, if the final draft for comments ("List") is settled, the stone money turtle is not in the list, then the breeding of stone money turtles does not need to be certified again, do not need to review the relevant documents every year, which for stone money turtle farmers, can remove the restrictions on handling various cumbersome procedures, in addition, because the current price of stone money turtles is very low, for new people who want to raise stone money turtles, the initial investment is low, and whether the removal of stone money turtles can be artificially farmed, whether it is suspected of violating the law. Let those who want to raise stone money turtles (whether they are free-range players or professional farmers) really feel at ease raising turtles! Subtracting the cumbersome formalities, it has an auxiliary effect on the new turtle breeding group! It can stimulate the demand for stone turtle farming to a certain extent!
Second, the stone money turtle was excluded from the list, which is good for the terminal upgrade industry of the stone money turtle! Food and drug processing enterprises with stone turtle as the main raw material can avoid some cumbersome qualification certification procedures, which is a kind of liberation for these food and drug processing enterprises! The state from the previous strict control to the later loose management, lower the corresponding threshold, for the operation of such processing enterprises, can effectively reduce the corresponding costs! In addition, due to the current low overall price of the stone turtle, it is the right time for food and medicine processing enterprises that use the stone turtle as raw material to develop related upgrading industries. Real food and drug enterprises increase the purchase of stone turtles, which can form a virtuous ecological cycle for the stone turtle breeding industry! For example, at present, Guangdong's more famous turtle paste brand "GuiXiao", Guangxi Wuzhou's traditional old turtle paste (double money turtle paste), Guangxi's turtle wine brand "Turtle Kung Fu Wine" and "Stone Money Turtle Wine" and so on. These brands (enterprises) are representatives of the industrial upgrading of the turtle market, and the turtle market industry has shifted from the original breeding industry to the current industrial chain of processing and upgrading, seeking terminal consumption! This creates an industrial cycle! Once a benign industrial circulation system is formed, it will have a historic change at the breeding end, and the breeding end will benefit! This will play a very big role in the recovery of Turtle City! The stone turtle was excluded from the list, which played a pioneering role in building and promoting the ecological cycle of the industry!
Third, after the outbreak of the epidemic this year, the breeding industry of many terrestrial wild animals is strictly restricted by the policy, and some of the people who were originally engaged in these industries may have transferred to the aquatic industry, and the stone turtle, as a member of the aquatic products, has the possibility of being accepted by new people and forming large-scale breeding! In addition, the state has corresponding support in the policy of poverty alleviation and agricultural assistance, and the stone turtle may be taken as a key project of poverty alleviation and development by the local government! This is a very good thing for the stone money turtle and for The Farmer!
These will all have a positive impact on The Stone Money Turtle Market! Although the current stone money turtle market is no longer the stone money turtle market that can produce huge wealth only by breeding, however, under the regulation of rational market mechanism, it has provided opportunities for the development of the processing and upgrading industry (rich low-priced raw materials (stone money turtle overcapacity)), and these emerging processing and upgrading industries are providing potential possibilities for saving the stone money turtle market, because only when the processing and upgrading enterprises find the terminal, the stone money turtle market can really warm up! At present, processing and upgrading enterprises are doing this!
Stone money turtle farming