Real estate "Golden Nine Silver Ten" no longer! In October, the price of second-hand houses in 100 cities fell for the first time in the year, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing fell below 10,000 sets

The property market trend of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has always been a hot spot in the market, and this year's real estate "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is no longer there, and the market continues to cool down significantly.

According to the survey data of the China Real Estate Index System Baicheng Price Index on new and second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities across the country, in October 2021, the average price of new residential buildings in Baicheng was 16189 yuan / square meter, up 0.09% month-on-month, the increase was narrowed by 0.05 percentage points from the previous month, the increase has been narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and the price of new houses this month fell to the low point of the year; up 3.08% year-on-year, the increase was narrowed by 0.32 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of second-hand housing, the average price of second-hand residential buildings in Baicheng was 16,026 yuan / square meter, down 0.04% month-on-month, the first time that the Baicheng Second-hand Residential Price Index fell since its release in June 2020; up 4.04% year-on-year, the increase was 0.34 percentage points narrower than the previous month. Judging from the number of cities that rose or fell, the prices of second-hand residential buildings in 59 cities fell month-on-month, and the number was the highest in the year.

In addition, the transaction volume of second-hand housing is also an important indicator of the real estate market, taking Beijing as an example, on November 1, the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center showed that Beijing signed 9340 sets of second-hand housing online in October, down 53.4% year-on-year, down 25.7% month-on-month, which is the Second-hand housing market in Beijing for 7 consecutive months of transaction reduction, and it is the first time in the year that it fell below 10,000 sets.

In this regard, a number of experts told the Securities Times E company reporter that due to the continuous tightening of the previous regulatory policies and credit environment, market demand is difficult to release, and the trend of continuous cooling of the real estate market has not changed. On the other hand, since September, the regulatory authorities have continuously released signals to maintain stability, and the marginal adjustment of the property market regulation and control policy in the fourth quarter is expected, and the market is expected to gradually build a bottom and stabilize in the fourth quarter.

The market continues to cool

Specifically, in terms of new residential buildings, according to the China Real Estate Index System Baicheng Price Index, in October 2021, the prices of new houses in the Yangtze River Delta, pearl river delta and Shandong Peninsula were all at a low level during the year, at -0.03%, 0.06% and 0.14% respectively; The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was driven by the structural increase in new housing prices in some cities, up 0.28% month-on-month.

This month, the price of new houses in the Yangtze River Delta fell for the first time in nearly 20 months (the last decline occurred in February 2020 in the early stage of the new crown epidemic), from 0.22% month-on-month to 0.03%; in the region, some cities with more active markets in the early stage have cooled to varying degrees, such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei and other new house prices have turned from rising to falling, Ningbo has narrowed the month-on-month increase, and Hangzhou has slightly expanded the decline.

In terms of second-hand residential buildings, according to the China Real Estate Index System Baicheng Price Index, the price of second-hand residential buildings in Baicheng fell for the first time in October, and the downward trend of the market in the major urban agglomerations was obvious, and the prices of second-hand residential buildings in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline expanded to 0.24%; the price increase in the Yangtze River Delta narrowed to 0.02%, reaching the lowest level in the year; the prices in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Peninsula both stopped rising and falling month-on-month, with a decline of 0.12% and 0.06% respectively.

Some cities are affected by the superposition of the "second-hand housing transaction reference price" policy, and the market continues to cool down, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta and Shanghai and Ningbo in the Yangtze River Delta, and the prices of Wuxi, Jinhua and Wenzhou in the Yangtze River Delta have continued to decline, and the prices of Wuxi, Jinhua and Wenzhou in the Yangtze River Delta have turned from rising to falling month on month.

"The price increase of new houses in 100 cities has narrowed for 4 consecutive months, and the price of second-hand houses has fallen for the first time in the year, which shows that the trend of continuous cooling of the real estate market has not changed." In this regard, Xu Yuejin, deputy director of research at the Index Division of the Middle Finger Research Institute, told the Securities Times e Company reporter that the main reason for the market downturn is caused by the continuous tightening of the previous regulatory policies and the credit environment, the market demand is difficult to release, and the expected change. Although the central bank has repeatedly sent positive signals to the market since the end of September, it still takes time for the policy to be transmitted to the market, and the market performance has not yet stabilized in the short term.

Looking forward to the future, the Middle Finger Research Institute believes that the marginal adjustment of the property market regulation and control policy in the fourth quarter is expected, and the credit-side policies such as mortgage interest rates and lending cycles in some cities may be improved. Near the end of the year, under the pressure of sales and financial pressure, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises will be enhanced, and various promotional activities may continue. With the gradual stabilization of regulatory policies and the expected enhancement of marginal easing of credit policies, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the fourth quarter.

Policy "two-way" adjustment

With the continuous tightening of real estate policies and financing environments since the beginning of this year, the financial risks of real estate enterprises have attracted much attention, and in this context, regulators have spoken intensively.

On October 15, at the press conference on financial statistics in the third quarter of 2021, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Market Department of the central bank, said that some financial institutions also have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of the "three lines and four files" of 30 pilot housing enterprises, and the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red file" enterprises must not be added, and the misunderstanding is that banks must not issue new development loans. This is seen by the industry as a signal that the industry's credit pressure will ease.

On the other hand, many local governments have also introduced new policies to "stabilize the property market". In early October, Harbin introduced a number of measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a maximum of 100,000 yuan of housing subsidies for eligible buyers' first home; the pre-tax rate of ordinary standard residential land value-added tax was implemented at 1.5%; the age of second-hand housing provident fund loans was increased to 30 years; and developers could apply for commercial housing pre-sale permits by building.

In October, Guangzhou clarified that the housing provident fund can be withdrawn and used when buying houses in 7 cities in Foshan, Dongguan and other provinces; the maximum amount of the provident fund loan for high-level talents in Hunan can be relaxed to 2.4 million yuan; Yiwu has reduced the pre-sale conditions for commercial housing and adjusted the "notary lottery" policy; Hangzhou has tightened the policy for talent settlement, and the threshold for graduates to settle down has been raised to undergraduate graduation; Dongguan announced the second-hand housing guidance price community, the first batch of 218 real estate projects.

In addition, various localities have also opened a "two-way" mode of adjustment of the policy, such as in October, Xiaogan issued a "limit order", the price of commercial housing rose and fell by more than 10% are required to be re-filed, the previous introduction of relevant policies also include Yueyang, Shenyang, Changchun, Tangshan and other more than ten cities, and some cities issued talent purchase subsidies, increased the amount of provident fund loans, lowered the second-hand housing transaction tax collection rate, etc., to stabilize market expectations.

Talking about the trend of the real estate market in the fourth quarter, Chen Wenjing, deputy director of research of the Index Division of the Middle Finger Research Institute, told the e company reporter that it is expected that the policy regulation of the new housing market will be mainly stable, and the normal rigid demand will be reasonably released, but the market adjustment pressure is still in place, the superimposed housing enterprises will accelerate the collection of goods, the pressure of house price adjustment will increase, and it is expected that the price of new houses in most cities will continue to narrow month-on-month, and the prices of some cities may usher in a short-term correction.

"The improvement of the second-hand housing credit side is relatively limited, and it is expected that short-term market activity will remain low, and prices may fluctuate slightly." Three batches of land supply in key cities have been listed one after another, the optimization of land transfer conditions is expected to be higher, it is expected that the land market will continue to be low temperature in the fourth quarter, and the situation of three batches of land plots in key cities has improved. Chen Wenjing said.

It is worth noting that on October 23, the 31st meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress decided to authorize the State Council to carry out pilot work on real estate tax reform in some areas, which will help guide housing to return to residential attributes and play a positive role in stabilizing housing prices.

Chen Wenjing believes that the real estate tax pilot affects market expectations in the short term, and buyers are more rational, but the current list of pilot cities and pilot collection rules have not yet been announced, and market expectations have not yet fluctuated greatly. "In the future, with the landing and implementation of relevant pilots, the market supply and demand relationship will be affected to a certain extent, the transactions in short-term pilot cities may decline, and there is a phased correction pressure on house prices, but the magnitude of the correction depends on the size of the real estate tax collection in the pilot cities." In the medium and long term, after the expectation is stable, the collection of real estate tax is conducive to rationally guiding housing consumption and the effective use of resources, and is conducive to the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market. ”