For home buyers, the farthest distance is that the house is optimistic, and the loan has not yet been approved.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been more and more news about "loan difficulties" and "extended lending cycle", especially since entering the third quarter, major banks have been more cautious about the related business of personal housing loans, and the tightening action has also been wave after wave. Buyers complained bitterly, and house prices fell in response. According to the September 70 city house price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 20th, the sales prices of new houses and second-hand houses in various tier cities have a significant downward trend from the previous month; the year-on-year increase is also continuing to decline.
I have to say that on the road of "housing is not speculation", the mortgage can be described as a loud and clear, and the effect is remarkable. But recently, the official "common prosperity" and the warm wind blowing frequently, so that many buyers have rekindled hope, and this time, the large "series" about mortgages is "wolf coming" or "real incense"?
The reason for this is that in an official article on "common prosperity", this thought-provoking passage was mentioned:
"Solidly promote common prosperity, we will focus on expanding the size of middle-income groups, and increase the property income of urban and rural residents such as housing, rural land, and financial assets." Holding housing is an important channel for increasing property income, and increasing the property income of urban and rural residents in the housing category will be conducive to expanding the size of middle-income groups. ”
You know, this is the first time that after the central government proposed "housing and not speculation" in 2016, the expression of "increasing the property income of urban and rural residents in housing" was mentioned. After this key wording was introduced, it was immediately followed by a "real hammer" of data that made home buyers even more excited:
According to relevant statistics, the average lending cycle of housing loans in 90 cities in October was 74 days, although some cities have an extended trend compared with the previous month, such as Shanghai, Wuhu, Nanning, Yantai, Zhengzhou, Zhuzhou and other cities, but most of the cities have a slightly shortened relaxation cycle compared with last month. Although it is not a significant reduction, for many buyers who are waiting for the mortgage to arrive, there is still some hope for victory.
Not only that, according to the data, in October 90, the mainstream first home loan interest rate in 90 cities was 5.73%, and the second set of interest rates was 5.99%, both of which were lowered by 1 basis point from the previous month, and the mortgage interest rate in 20 cities was lowered. thereinto. The interest rate of the first set of houses in 14 cities fell, the interest rate of the second home loan in 14 cities fell, and the interest rates of the first and second home loans in the overlapping 9 cities were reduced.
(The chart shows the trend of mortgage interest rates in 90 major monitored cities.) Image source network, intrusion and deletion. ）
It is worth mentioning that this is the first time in the year that the mortgage interest rate has shown a downward trend from the previous quarter, and the credit environment has shown signs of improvement. It is undeniable that the official signal released by the mortgage is positive, and put forward specific requirements for "maintaining the stable and orderly delivery of real estate credit", and the ultimate purpose is to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It can be seen that the subsequent interest rates related to housing loans and the relaxation cycle are expected to improve to a certain extent. On the one hand, in the continuously low market environment, the probability of increasing the real estate financial policy is not large; on the other hand, under the signal that the official cannot be "one size fits all", the approval and delivery of loans may also be more flexible.
However, it should be clear that although the current market has made it clear that the real estate credit environment will be improved this year, it does not mean that the official will completely relax the supervision of real estate financing, and considering that the policy of financial attributes has a certain lag in the market impact, the improvement at the credit level will not appear until next year. Therefore, for investors who want to take this opportunity to speculate on a wave of house prices, or do not fantasize, for the just need group, it is recommended to wait and see for a period of time, waiting for the mortgage lending cycle to continue to shorten, mortgage interest rates continue to decline, as for where the signal to the bottom is, it depends on when the real estate tax is opened, how it is collected, and where it is collected. If your city once the real estate tax collection plan is determined, then the high probability market will concentrate on a large number of stock houses, and the price affected by supply and demand will also fluctuate, then this time is the window period you can consider getting on the car.
So, will you choose to get on the bus early next year?