How did the economy and capital markets develop in the second quarter?
Where does the economic momentum come from?
Can A shares change from bull short bear long to bull long bear short?
How to choose the allocation of large asset classes?
……
Recently, Zhejiang University's EMBA Cloud Inquiry Lecture Series invited Mr. Yu Bo, Chief Macro Analyst and Business Director of Changjiang Securities Research Institute, Mr. Wei Wei, Assistant Director of Ping An Securities Research Institute and Chief Strategic Analyst, to analyze and look forward to the capital market from different perspectives.
Mr. Wei Wei
From the global market environment, domestic policy changes, A-share market strategies and large-scale asset allocation four aspects of the detailed interpretation.
Mr. Yu Bo
From the three aspects of currency over-issuance to push up prices, inflation upwards to push interest rates, and the economy to endogenous drive, the economic and capital market development in the second quarter is looking forward.
Here are some of the lectures:
Wei Wei, Chief Strategist of Ping An Securities and Assistant Director of the Institute
Wei Wei: A-share medium- and long-term strategy - bull market layout economic transformation direction
Combined with domestic and foreign experience, China's capital market is moving from a mature stage of bull short bear long to bull long bear short.
The A-share market is expected to enter the long bull stage again after short-term consolidation, and it is recommended that the dip layout represents the digital economy, green economy and consumer economy in the medium and long-term direction of China's economic transformation.
Digital Economy Tips focus on five main lines:
Strengthen the innovative application of key digital technologies: high-end chips, operating systems, key algorithms of artificial intelligence, sensors, etc.; general-purpose processors, cloud computing systems.
Accelerate the promotion of digital industrialization: emerging digital industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, cloud computing, and network security; third-party big data service industries.
Accelerate the construction of new information infrastructure: Accelerate the construction of supporting new infrastructure, promote and upgrade gigabit optical fiber networks, and forward-looking layout of 6G network technology reserves.
Promote industrial digital transformation: Based on 5G application scenarios and industrial ecology, ubiquitous perception, terminal networking, intelligent scheduling system construction; Internet of Things; crowdsourcing design, smart logistics, new retail, etc.; smart agriculture; and set up government cloud platform and data center system.
Pay attention to data security and network security: data security and personal information protection; strengthen economic supervision of Internet platforms; strengthen the research and development of key technologies for network security, and accelerate the innovation of artificial intelligence security technology.
The green economy mainly focuses on the three main lines of low-carbon transformation, clean energy and pollution prevention.
Consumption upgrading can focus on the relevant investment opportunities brought about by guiding high-quality brand consumption, cultivating new consumption, and developing service consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
Guide brand consumption and high-quality consumption (personalization, differentiation, quality; take the lead in cultivating a number of high-end brands in the field of cosmetics, clothing, home textiles, electronic products and other consumer goods).
New consumption, cultural digital industry (customization, experience, intelligence, fashion consumption and other new models; digital creativity, network audio-visual, digital publishing, digital entertainment, online broadcasting and other industries).
Build a new system for the service industry (R&D and design, industrial design, business consulting, inspection, testing and certification services; supply chain finance, information and data, human resources and other services; health, pension, childcare, culture, tourism, sports, property and other service industries).
The outlook for the allocation of large assets believes that volatility has intensified and returns have converged.
Global stock markets: The stock index that led the rally last year has been volatile this year, and the technology growth style has borne the brunt.
U.S. stocks: The divergence of value growth will continue.
Hong Kong stocks: Focus on the cost-effective "core assets" of Hong Kong stocks.
A shares: The risk release of this round of ChiNext indexes is relatively fast, but the market valuation adjustment is still not in the bottom.
Real estate: short-term policy regulation and upgrading, the rapid rise of domestic real estate is no longer in the period, "housing is not speculated" + "because of the city policy" is still the main theme. Real estate in the global core metropolitan area has long-term allocation value.
Macro Chief Analyst and Business Director of Changjiang Securities Research Institute Yu Bo, an alumnus of Zhejiang University
Yu Bo: The economy is turning endogenously driven
Judging from the current macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, China has maintained a basically stable macro leverage ratio, and in 2021 it will usher in a Chinese-style stable leverage: a small deleveraging of the government, a moderate control of leverage by residents, and an internal transfer of leverage by enterprises. At the same time, the real estate infrastructure stimulus is no longer there. Driven by the continuous improvement of corporate earnings and residents' incomes, manufacturing investment and consumption will take over as the main driving force for China's economic recovery.
At the end of the speech, he summarized the following key points:
1. The monetization of fiscal deficits under the endorsement of modern monetary theory has spawned this round of global currency over-issuance, driving the world's major stock markets and commodity prices to rise significantly.
2. The risk of imported inflation caused by large price increases, and the recovery of the US economy to drive inflation expectations to rise, will drive interest rates upwards and trigger asset rotation.
3, PPI and interest rates upwards mean that the bond market is facing adjustments, the overall valuation of the stock market is under pressure, and the low-value blue chips with less damage to valuations and simultaneous improvement of profits are more beneficial.
4, the Chinese style of stable leverage is coming: the government slight deleveraging, residents moderately control leverage, enterprise internal leverage, real estate deleveraging and manufacturing plus leverage.
5. The improvement of corporate profitability and the credit environment are suitable to drive the recovery of manufacturing investment, and the rebound of residents' income growth rate and the rebound of marginal consumption tendencies will be driven.
6. As the biggest highlight of the industrial level of the two sessions of the National People's Congress, carbon peak carbon neutrality will bring structural opportunities, which is worth looking forward to.